NSW reopening roadmap embarrasses Victoria

The NSW Government yesterday updated its reopening roadmap, which is far more generous than Victoria’s.

Both roadmaps are based on achieving 70% and then 80% full vaccination thresholds, which NSW will hit first:

Full Vaccination targets

On the Monday after NSW hits its 70% full vaccination threshold (11 October), fully vaccinated Sydneysiders will be allowed to have people in their homes, can go to the gym, indoor pubs, cafes and retail, can attend indoor weddings and funerals, can attend outdoor events, and can travel throughout the state:

NSW 70% roadmap

By contrast, when Victoria hits the 70% full vaccination threshold (indicative date 26 October), fully vaccinated Melburnians will not be permitted to have people visit their homes, won’t be able to go to the gym, won’t be permitted to attend indoor cafes, pubs, retail, indoor weddings or funerals, can’t attend outdoor events, and still can’t travel through the state:

The news is better for fully vaccinated Melburnians once the 80% full vaccination target is hit (indicative date 5 November). By then, vaccinated Melburnians will be allowed to have 10 people visit their homes, can attend gyms, retail, pubs and cafes (but seated only service), can attend indoor weddings and funerals, and can travel through the state:

Melbourne 80% vaccination target

Victoria’s 80% roadmap rules are effectively the same as NSW. However, NSW has also committed to effectively remove all restrictions once 90% of residents are fully vaccinated (indicative date 1 December), specifically:

  • No masks indoors.
  • An unlimited number of people will be allowed in homes and outdoors.
  • Venues will move from the 4 sqm rule to the 2 sqm rule – meaning each patron at a bar will only have to have two square metres to themselves.
  • Nightclubs and other venues will reopen.
  • Indoor pools will reopen.

At this stage, the Victorian Government has not committed to a similar 90% plan.

My biggest issue is that Melburnians will effectively still be under lockdown at the 70% threshold, whereas Sydneysiders will have freedom within a fortnight.

After 240 days of hard lockdown – a world record – Melburnians deserve better.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. Victoria’s more so Melbourne’s population will fall over the next few years, I’d say btw 10 & 20%, what’s metro Melb @4.5 to 5? Will be @4 in 2 to 3 years. Many will go north, Dan Andrew’s has traumatised many, I’d say many would be happy to live in a tent or caravan somewhere else just to get away from him.
    Don’t worry about your argument about population growth, Dan has taken good care of that
    Nature has a way of taking care of things, once Melb population falls to sustainable levels, hopefully nature will then take care of Andrew’s & get rid of him, I have no idea why but he is very popular, wouldn’t be surprised to see him win again next year.
    Melbourne will have a serious exodus, Andrew’s has seriously affected many Victorian’s, it’ll be the silent protest.

    • Melbourne will look like Detroit in 5 years.
      Presently 30% of places listed for auction are selling.

      • Lucky we shut down GMH and Toyota. Victoria is a basket case. Dan has drained the finances, smashed private business, engorged himself and the CFMEU, bloated a dysfunctional Public Service with foreigners not Victorians, and constructed a police state. The Commonwealth have stuffed Melbourne with low income migrants and foreign kleptocrats who have purchased entire suburbs leaving swathes of the city unrecognisable as Australian. There are 80,000 vacant residences in Melbourne according to Prosper Australia. The schools and hospitals are sardined into pressure cookers. However house prices have risen. Mission Accomplished.

          • I don’t read News Ltd. I did See that “inquiry” where no one was in charge of Quarantine. I do see the vacant shops, I do see the live feeds of the protests – do you standwithdan?

          • Well, at least there is someone to stand with.

            Scotty and the Vic Libs are full of p!ss and wind talking out all five sides of their mouths trying to get extra votes from any direction.

            Your concern about empty shops is a bit hollow compared to the $bills the LNP mates have ripped out of the Feds.

    • For every white Melbournian who decamps to Queensland, there’ll be half a dozen South Asians chomping at the bit to get in.

      They’ll have no trouble replacing them and then some.

      Comparisons with arctic cold US shitholes like Detroit are just plain ignorant.

      With a ‘free trade’ agreement with India on the cards, expect some form of ‘free movement’ that will see parts of Melbourne resemble Bangalore by 2040.

    • Ee Zed Eff Kaye Ay

      The exodus of people going north of the Murray will give them an excuse to import more people. Unliveable dog boxes don’t fill themselves and plenty were built whilst people were stuck in their homes.

    • Those leaving are not Labor supporters which will entrench Labor’s stronghold on the State until it collapses under its own weight of debt and unfunded liabilities. I estimate 24 months before collapse.

    • A large proportion are tied to a huge mortgage. They aren’t going anywhere… “Shut up and get back to work”

  2. Travel to regional NSW from Sydney won’t be permitted until all of the state is at 80% though the language around that is ambiguous. Ie is it 80% average or 80% per LGA or LHD.

    This is to protect regions like the Northern Rivers where vaccine supply has until now been poor and consequently the vax rates are lower than Sydney.

    • I’ll believe that when I see it.

      Did you know that the number of permits to travel around NSW checking real estate was 57,000 in one month of the lockdown alone? Or that permits for all reasons were up around 187,000? I think that just goes to show how little the virus actually transmits in reality* myself, but I sure am not looking forward to a city slicker inundation in my little coastal town.

      The release of Sydneysiders will be like the most crowded Christmas holidays of all time multiplied by 100. Can’t wait to see the streets covered in their discarded rubbish!

      *The only person I know who has caught Covid was sharing rides in cars, sharing a house and working in confined spaces with other people consistently for the duration of his infection. Not a single other person caught it. And whatever happened to the virus spreading like “wildfire” through NE NSW after that infected Rose Bay bloke with his two sons journeyed through the region as the media predicted?

  3. How’s James number counting is going…….probably can tell by how many MP delete all references to #ISTANDWITHDAN in the next few months.

  4. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    “An unlimited number of people will be allowed in homes and outdoors”

    Looks like relations parties are back on at reusachtige’s place.

  5. Just wait until Govt shifts the goalposts and defines ‘fully vaxxed’ as 3,4,5 booster shots… already happening in Israel.


    • Then the number of cases will gradually reflect the numbers of hospitalisations which will look much better.

      And presumably deaths from at home without a previous covid diagnosis will be the majority of covid deaths.

    • Once it becomes feasible to bury your head in the sand without too many consequences to yourself it will be done. There will be a few people dying, especially people who develop another condition, but people won’t be willing to sacrifice anymore for these people. Mortality from other diseases in particular will rise.

      Its not the outcome I want personally. I would prefer that COVID wasn’t endemic in our cities with consequences for the permanently and temporarily vulnerable. However, particularly in Melbourne, where NSW let COVID back into the country I feel that the lockdown risk control is now exhausted.

      Lockdowns should be the last resort. If you resort to using them too often its a sign that you haven’t invested in other risk controls (quarantine, vaccines in that order in order of percentage efficacy and cost effectiveness). Sadly its the states that will mostly pay for the Federal Government delaying work on these. Even QLD decided to go in alone recently on this after Scomo was basically giving them the runaround on that for months. Maybe too little too late now however.

      The tragedy was that all this could of been avoidable had the Federal Government did its job of quarantine earlier. I feel come March they will be rewarded for creating the problem, pinning the measures to deal with the aftermath on the states and then “promote freedom”. Its the oldest trick in the book.

        • With a lot more deaths even with the higher vaccination rate. Lets be honest – the flu shot is about 33% vaccinated AT BEST. Most people don’t bother getting it often enough for it to matter all that much.

        • A bad flu season Australia wide is 800 deaths – the worst was 2019 with 812. Covid will beat that this year once Victoria’s deaths start to ramp up; NSW has already had more deaths from covid so far this year than they had from flu in 2019 (312) with likely roughly as many more deaths to come.

  6. Jumping jack flash

    My concern is the language around unvaxxed. Apart from churches and religious ceremonies on 1st December i cant recall seeing any roadmap for them being allowed back into society.

    I guess they’re allowed back to churches so they can pray to Lord Scomo for forgiveness for mistrusting his goop and beg for mercy?

    • How are they going to know whether a person is vaxxed or not?

      Who is seriously going to check?

      It’s completely unenforceable and they know it. It’s like Q codes in shops and so on. No one checks.

      It’s just a pretend carrot and stick to get the stubbornly reluctant jabbed.

    • this language?
      “A third stage has been set for December 1, when it’s expected the state will have reached 90 per cent double-dose vaccination.
      On that date, unvaccinated people will be subject to the same rules as those who’ve been vaccinated.”

      Seems pretty clear cut to me.

    • Consequences?

      The entire rationale for “modelling” is to Henny Penny the population from a position of illusory authority. I’ve still got a screen shot from the morning show back in April last year with the banner under the announcer confidently stating that 250,000 Indonesians would probably die in the following month alone.

      Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      NSW Health has put a media gag on all staff. It won’t be obvious what is happening inside Hospitals, unless a staff member gets so peeved they are prepared to throw away their career.

      • The elite ban experts from talking to the public.

        On a completely different topic:

        Why do you think so many people are reading and sharing suspect “information” about Covid?

  7. MountainGuinMEMBER

    Great news that travel in summer is looking good. May need some $$$ and early bookings for accommodation.

  8. Arthur Schopenhauer

    We will only know if it is an embarrassment in March 2022.

    The triage protocols for NSW hospitals haven’t been written. They will need them 4 weeks from now. (Victorian doctors need them in 6 weeks.)

    If you are the lone overnight Registrar on the Covid ICU Ward, you’ll have to decide who will live and who will expire, with no process or legal protections.

    They probably won’t be in place for NSW’s fourth wave that will start in January, either.

    • It could take even longer – outbreaks grow slower once people have been vaxxed, and then there are the usual lags between infection, detection, hospitalisation and death plus higher case numbers are expected, so judged more on hospitalisations and deaths.

  9. I’d hardly call anything the NSW Libs do a ‘plan’, let’s see what happens when the rubber hits the road. Open for business on the 11th of October, let’s see how long it stays that way.

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  11. So who is the Gestapo that will go door knocking on private residences to check that all visitors to a home have their papers? Or are they relying on private citizens to report on their friends, family and neighbours for harbouring the unvaccinated?

    • In Victoria people are leaving notes on unknown cars in their street, stating “Are you supposed to be here”. In Brisbane, people isolating are having the police called when they go outside and talk to people over a fence. I blame the MSM for all the fear pron, but maybe Aussies are just dobbing @ssh0les!

    • Victorian government police appear to have convinced themselves they are engaged in a war. It started as a war against C19, but became a war on the people. Wars are always easy to get into, but difficult to get out of. History shows that human rights & common decency have often been trampled in such situations.

  12. Playing for the red team in this comment..

    Once we get 80% double vaccines, we should open up all businesses and introduce a 2% tax on all sales. This will be a COVID tax that will go into our Health system. That would bring in extra umm guesstimated 4 billion to the hospital system. This will be funnelled into our ICU/covid ward and more beds.

    This will show that we accept that vaccine works, but we accept it is not perfect. Some people will be in the hospital and we are prepared for it. Our shut down is already costing us big $$$, why not put a $ figure and move on with our lives?

      • I am not an expert in virologist, hence i can’t comment. I’m thinking in terms of $$ value. Now we know more about the virus and the affect of vaccine, why not let it rip and have an additional 2% tax to support the hospital and medical experts. 4 billion dollars for hospital or billion dollars because of closures.

      • Yes. And no. Depending on your endpoint.

        https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2180/rr-4

        It certainly reduces disease severity.
        It doesn’t reduce disease transmission.

        So it’s about protecting yourself, not others. Which makes the whole pass system a bit silly.

        I’m happy to have been vaxed. I don’t care whether the person next to me is or is not.

  13. The consequences of collapsing health care systems in other similar countries is costing them political power.

    Good luck to Gladys – its a proven failure.

    Same with Scomo.

  14. I’m pretty sure its illegal to discriminate against un-jabbed people (I’m not sure why we are still calling it a vaccine, since its clearly not), especially when there is no legal recourse for harm caused.
    I thought the goal was to reach “herd immunity”, not to create an “us and them” society.
    After 30 years of shouting “inclusion, tolerance, freedom of expression from the rooftops”, we suddenly want to discriminate against people for being different.
    A truly bizarre world (country) we find ourselves in.

    • To me that is extremely significant.

      For years we have all swallowed and been parroting nonsense about being so inclusive and tolerant of difference. I do go along with it to some extent but have always had reservations about some of it.

      For example employers are not allowed to discriminate against a young woman if they think she will have babies and leave. Of course they still do. You are not allowed to ask a person’s age in a job interview. What nonsense.

      Now all of a sudden there is an avalanche of anger and discrimination against unjabbed people.

      From this I conclude that most people never really wanted to be inclusive – they just parroted that dogma when it was popular.
      Now that it is popular to be un-inclusive (exclusive) – the same arseholes are now parroting that dogma. They stand for nothing and will fall for anything.

      • People believe what they want to believe. Makes them easily susceptible to soundbites of hope, propaganda and other forms of social influence. The easiest way to make people believe a lie is to make the truth unpopular and or painful to the observer; and that people who have that opinion are loonies/fringe crowd/unreasonable/fantasy dreamers/etc. Greenies caring about climate change, zero COVID loonies…. ridicule is the best tactic to shut down an argument. Winning an argument with truth gains you very little if it means you are disliked as a result and placed into an unpopular “tribal” group. At worst people will do the opposite just to try prove you wrong. We are human and sadly humans are not tolerant of differences which makes them easily convinced of popular opinion. Any progress we seem to make with groups I argue is partly a result of those minority groups becoming big enough that they aren’t actually minority tribes anymore not because we are more tolerant – although I’m a cynical person. Real minority groups suffering are still suffering every day without a loud enough voice.

        Tolerance was only sprouted because that was the majority opinion at the time and there’s safety in the herd. Generally tolerance was only in popular topics anyway. Yep these days what’s right and wrong is the latest opinion on media/facebook/whatever echo chamber you’re reading.

        Very little critical thought on most issues.

        On the example of employer discrimination when an infected vaccinated person can spread the virus if infected just the same and is probably more likely to be asymptotic there’s very little reason to discriminate especially if the unvaccinated left are miniscle and the hospital system can handle them at peak. Yes there’s probably less chance of infection but as a bystander what I care about is the ability to detect infection when I encounter a person which arguably if the vaccines do their job will be harder. These vaccines aren’t sterilizing and people still spread disease. Of course this potentially puts me in an ‘unvaxxed’ tribe for stating that fact (despite the fact I’m jabbed and never stated that) which means people will be automatically turned off by that opinion.

        Problem is official sources are selective in their reporting too, want people to have a certain opinion, and people typically see what they want to see. While I think the silent majority if presented with a permanent no lockdown option if looking at the alternatives would take it that option would never be put to them in earnest. Instead if put forward to people it would be made to be totally unfeasble, “we can’t keep it out forever”, how silly are they, etc when really its much lower tech/easier to do/cheaper long term than a widespread vaccine rollout of the country with boosters. Vested interests and young travelling types want borders to open; and they have the loudest voice right now.

        When people are talking about international travel before even getting back the basics it makes me wonder.

        • When people are talking about international travel before even getting back the basics it makes me wonder.

          +1

          Yep – let’s get retail and entertainment open and get to a point where everyone in Australia can visit their Australian based relatives. Let’s live with that for a bit, see what it looks like, including what the new case, hospitalisation and death figures look like, then let’s start to talk about a timetable for international travel for Australians. When that one’s finalised, we can start to think about whether we ever want to have international students again, in what numbers and maybe have a pilot program. Probably some time post 2025.

  15. TheLambKingMEMBER

    I’m pretty sure its illegal to discriminate against un-jabbed people

    It is not discrimination. Just like it is not discrimination to only allow un-drunk, seat-belted people to drive. Just like a shop/bar can deny entry for someone not wearing shoes and a top. Just like it is not discrimination to not allow un-vaxxinated kids to attend day care and school.

    A truly bizarre world (country) we find ourselves in.

    Yep, truly bizarre when people are willing to inject/snort/take all sort of unknown and un-proven stuff into their system, but won’t take vaccines when it has been proven to pretty much protect them from a non-trivial chance of dying! Vaccines, which are some of the safest, most effective drugs/treatments known to humans. Vaccines which have saved more lives and suffering than pretty much any technology/medicine in our history. Not willing to take vaccines when every human on the planet has taken about a dozen vaccines already in their life (about 100 billion vaccines administered.)

    • Vaccines so good the US regulators have such reservations about the side effects only high risk people are being allowed to have a booster shot.

    • I am with you 100% LambKing.

      I’m still angry with those anti-jetters who took down the 737max. Didn’t they know that the 737 is one of the most reliable planes with a 50 year record of safe flying?
      The 737 is safe and effective. Instead of listening to those crackpot pilot nutters, why didn’t they just reassure the public with an advertising campaign? The 737 has very few adverse effects. In fact it should have been made mandatory to fly on a 737max, even after those two rare adverse events.