The NSW Government’s crisis cabinet has signed off on a tentative plan to re-open the economy on 18 October, when 70% of the eligible population is expected to be fully vaccinated.
However, Chief Health Officer (CHO) Kerry Chant had initially advised the crisis cabinet to set a full vaccination target of 80%-85% before ending the lockdown:
The government has signed off on plans to set a tentative target of October 18 for the state to come out of lockdown, with bars, restaurants and other retail to recommence trade for fully vaccinated individuals…
Advocating for a cautious approach to reopening, NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant told ministers and other officials on Wednesday afternoon that the community should aim for as close to 80-85 per cent of full vaccination coverage before reopening in order to reduce the likelihood of re-entering lockdown.
She pointed to the experiences of Israel and the United Kingdom as examples of how communities could still suffer if reopening occurred without adequate vaccination coverage and restrictions in place, resulting in high case numbers, hospitalisations and other adverse effects on health systems.
Dr Chant said delaying the reopening by a short period would mitigate this possibility…
Modelling released by the NSW government on Monday forecast that case numbers in the local government areas of most concern were on a trajectory to peak this month at between 1100 and 2000 cases a day.
Hospitalisations are expected to spike in October and intensive care units to be overrun with patients, the modelling showed.
The rate NSW’s vaccinations are going, it would only take a few more weeks to achieve an 80% threshold.
My view is that it is too early to schedule ‘freedom day’ and that NSW should probably wait until the 80% threshold is reached before opening up. This would minimise strains on the hospital system, which according to Burnet Institute modelling will be hit with 3434 hospitalisations and 560 ICU patients in late October.
