According to NSW Health, there are 177 people with COVID-19 in intensive care statewide, including four children under the age of 12.
New modelling undertaken by the Burnet Institute on behalf of the state government suggests that case numbers in the 12 local government areas at the epicentre of the current outbreak could soon top 2,000 per day.
The modelling also forecasts that the number of people in NSW in intensive care will rise to 947 in October, including 560 cases that are directly attributable to COVID-19. But Premier Gladys Berejiklian has been criticised for only realising the modelling that relates to the LGAs of most concern:
Ms Berejiklian said the state had a surge capacity of up to 2000 ventilators and 1550 fully staffed ICU beds.
Professor Margaret Hellard, an infectious disease physician and director at the Burnet, a medical research organisation, and who worked on the NSW modelling, said the models released on Monday related only to the 12 areas of concern in Sydney’s south-west and western suburbs and looked at the “impact of enhanced vaccination”.
Professor Hellard confirmed there was broader modelling which the government did not release…
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Around 60% of NSW’s population have now received at least one vaccine dose (33% are fully vaccinated). However, only 21% of people admitted to ICU in NSW are vaccinated:
This shows that COVID is largely a disease of the unvaccinated.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
