NSW daily COVID cases plummet

NSW recorded 935 new COVID infections over the past 24 hours and four deaths:

All deaths were elderly:

  • Two people in their 60s
  • Two people in their 80s

There have been 245 COVID-19 related deaths in NSW since 16 June 2021 and 301 in total since the start of the pandemic.

There are currently 1,207 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 236 people in intensive care, 123 of whom require ventilation.

Three quarters of COVID patients in ICU are unvaccinated despite comprising only 18% of the adult population:

Daily cases are falling fast:

Active cases are also falling – down to 13,604:

Well done Sydney.

Unconventional Economist


      • We are happy and celebrate the number of cases is dropping. But it does not equate to NSW is doing a good job, agree?

      • Probably more to do with warmer weather and people going out and ignoring nonsense stay indoor messaging when sunlight is good for immune function.

        • Yeh, I’m sick of the govt elite’s “mushroom policy” regarding telling the truth to the voting public.

          I normally wear a hat when outdoors in the hotter months. Now that covid is around, is it better for me to:
          1) Keep wearing a hat to prevent sunburn and cancer
          2) Stop wearing a hat to increase vitamin D and reduce Covid risk

          The govt message seems to be vaccine, vaccine, vaccine, as if they are a marketing wing of a corporation.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          No. If you look at the data, it’s the Western LGA lockdowns more than any other factor. Vaccines second.

      • Daily cases are clearly on the decline. What’s not to like?

        The significant rise of waxed in ICU.
        It is counterintiutive and unexpected.
        Does it mean that waxed may overwhelm the ICU in the near future?
        Probably not because of the lockdown(s) but no one knows.

        • Did you see the Olympian? Simply could not be any skinnier, fitter or younger. Doubled waxed of course. No doubt compulsory. Feels “very unlucky” to be in hospital with plague.

          • She’s unlucky to be in hospital but not unlucky to have it – we’re all going to get it, probably multiple times.

      • People keep flying to Sydney from the regions and taking it back, and vice versa.

        Some clown has done a lap of the Richmond Valley, FFS

      • not all Syd residents done it tough. We, who live in the Southwest and the West done it tough and this is why cases are dropping. We’ve been in lockdowns from day one. Why Gladys is unlocking now is because she knows cases are going up in the areas that are “immune” to the virus but she is not prepared to treat the residents there same as us.
        Also, double vaxxed are now turning up at hospitals needing treatments as a result of getting infected and/or reactions to the vaccines.
        The mess we are in and why cases will go up again is because unvaxxed workers from non LGAs like Wollongong were allowed to travel into LGAs to work on building sites while unvaxxed from same LGA where the site is are not allowed to go to work unless they get vaxxed. I am told two of those Gong workers are now infected.. I am sure there will be lot more of this.
        The person that told me this is a friend of over 30 years so yes, I am 100% this is solid. He works for the mob.

      • In other news, there were 123,714 people tested who did not have CV-19. That is a lot of testing and not a lot of cases….what symptoms are these people displaying and are we testing them for anything else?

        • Hypochondria mostly, there ia a lady at work who goes and gets tested with her husband every week. The constant fear mongering by the media has made a lot of people think covid is many orders of magnitude worse than it actually is and they are acting accordingly.

    • There’s a difference between NSW residents and the NSW government.

      You can applaud NSW residents for mostly doing the right thing while still holding the opinion that the NSW government failed by letting this in, and will continue to fail in managing COVID. It is in their ideology to do so.

      • I only broke the rule once during Fathers day and visited a mate who was falling apart because he couldn’t see two of his daughters.
        Only to find out that ScottfcknMorrison did not have to follow same rule. While I was sweating it in case I get busted while holding grown up man in my arms whos was weeping.

        • You are allowed to leave home and visit others for caring reasons and for emergencies.

          I got a call from an old friend in a red zone who had pulled his knob too hard and was stuck in half his house, unable to access the toilet.(door knob came off) Due to his age and condition he is unable to walk around the back and access the toilet that way. So I considered this to be an emergency and I went to fix his problem.

          When I was fixing it he was visited by another person for a less important reason. This person did not wear a mask and was not aware of the rules, and was not aware that he was visiting a red zone.

    • Melbourne is peaking now too – REFF getting closer to zero.

      Feel like Melbourne is now at a similar level of the graph to where Sydney was between Day 70-80 meaning it may peak in the next 1-2 weeks at most.

      Cross over may happen very briefly but suspect they will both track downwards in a similar trajectory.

        • Still very different to the modeling Andrews is quoting with a December case peak above 4000 – this shows an October case peak at roughly 1000 with an upper limit for uncertainty at roughly 1300 (and starts from today, whereas the Doherty modeling at a minimum doesn’t take into accounts today’s or yesterday’s figures).

          • I’ve no position on which is right or wrong: linked to demonstrate what appears to be a big difference between Reff of 0 and what is actually happening on the ground. The link provided explains its methodology. It previously had NSW peaking Sept 24th at about 2400 daily cases.

          • When they open, cases are going to explode so we all need to get over the case R values. Focus on hospital, ICU, deaths and vaccination rates of under 80’s. Track the stats that matter because cases are not going to be a useful measure into the future.

          • Hospitalisations and deaths are predicted by cases – hospitalisations and deaths are some fraction of cases with a lag e.g. if cases have been steady for a while and they double, a couple of weeks later hospitalisations double, and a couple of weeks after that deaths double.

  1. Cases, who cares? Poor correlator now with vaccine coverage growing. ICU, deaths and vaccine coverage are key stats. Also when we look at hospital and deaths we should really be analyzing young and limited co-morbidities. People in their 80’s and 90’s dying is what my grand parents would have called “a good innings”.

    • Frank DrebinMEMBER

      The lack of growth in ICU cases and the correlation of vaxxed/unvaxxed to this will be distressing for some on this site.

      • Jumping jack flash

        It started high at about 9% of active cases to hospitalisations, and then fell quite quickly to around 5.5% of active cases to hospitalisations.

        In fact as hospitals’ spare capacity fills up – which apparently doesn’t take that long thanks to the decades-long privatisation agenda – we should see a *greater* percentage of hospitalisations requiring ICU, as milder cases are given a packet of panadol and a home visit from a nurse.

        Visits from those same nurses who couldn’t find jobs in hospitals for quids a couple of years ago.

      • word is hospitals started administering ivermecting and joining what many other countries do. I can’t confirm this for sure though but the fact politicians and “high profile” media hoes are not laughing at the drug and not calling it horse medicine anymore would suggest there is truth in my claim.
        Again, as I said, I can’t prove if correct and hope someone can confirm if this is true or not. Someone with first hand intel.

        • Frank DrebinMEMBER

          CSIRO/CSL should jump on this bandwagon and produce a derivative drug catering to global preferences.

          They will make a motza !!.

    • I want to know how excess mortality compares between the jabbed and unjabbed populations.

      Excess mortality: To date, the pandemic increased mortality by 5% to 25% in most Western countries. Up to 25% of the additional deaths were caused not by covid, but by indirect effects of the pandemic and lockdowns (e.g. fewer treatments of cancer and heart attack patients).

      If the above is true it could be said that living in 2021 will on average age you 1.5 years. Of course this is not equally spread out. Some die and age completely, while others do not and simply age 1 year.

      If these jabs can drop excess mortality from 5%-25% down to say 1%-5% then going back to normal would seem justified IMO.

      Have the govt elites mentioned figures for excess mortality?

      • Jumping jack flash

        I’d like to know what happened to the regular flu and all the deaths usually associated with that.

        Those flu shots must be working better than expected this year. Perhaps they finally cracked the prediction puzzle and got the formula right for northern AND southern hemispheres at the same time this time!

  2. “Three quarters of COVID patients in ICU are unvaccinated despite comprising only 18% of the adult population”

    A meaningless figure because you need to know what the vaccination rate was in the community at the time these patients got infected. If you assumed that the vaccination rate in the community they come from at the time they were infected was 30% (as it was in NSW on 24 July), then you’d expect 30% of the COVID intensive care patients to be vaccinated if the vaccine had zero effectiveness at some point after that date. How long is the average time between infection and ICU admission? If only 15% of the COVID intensive care population were vaccinated, you might conclude that the vaccine reduced the likelihood of going into intensive care by half. If the vaccination rate in the community at the time of infection was higher or lower, you’d adjust your estimate of the vaccine’s effectiveness accordingly. If we read the figures you gave at face value we might assume that the vaccine reduced the likelihood of COVID taking you to intensive care by 82%. It’s very, very unlikely to be that high.

    Israel has the longest vaccination data because they went all in ASAP, and reports I read said that 59% of their COVID wards were fully vaccinated patients on 15 August, in a population that was about 80% vaccinated. So, the likelihood of infection being hospitalised seems to have reduced by about 20% due to vaccination.

    Of course, I’m the first to admit that interpreting these stats is hard, so please tell me if you think I’m wrong.

    • If a healthy person takes one of these jabs and is soon after taken to hospital with a rare blood clot related issue and sadly dies, does this death count as a vaccinated or an unvaccinated death?

      Excess deaths at 5%-25% do not suggest that many people are dying from the jabs (as some theorists posit).

      I am crudely interpreting the ICU figures and I calculate that the jabs are reducing chance of ICU by 90%. That’s the best I can do. Are the govt elites giving us more accurate data? This is pretty important stuff so I would hope they are forthcoming.

      • “I calculate that the jabs are reducing chance of ICU by 90%.”

        Probably right, I cannot tell.
        However, the high waxing numbers instigate behaviour shift as the whole waxing was revolving around “to protect others and remove age old measures” which may and it is likely to cause waxed to take risks based on the wrong perceptions.
        Imagine a scenario where there is a mass event with 10000s of plebes and a significant chunk of waxed asymptomatic infected visitors. Scale that down to 100 and it is still a scarry proposition. Sure there will be less dead or icu’d per infected no’s but unlikely in nominal numbers, and waxed were promised a life as we knew it as soon as they receive a second needle (or a third?).

      • Which is the key. Old people have weak immune systems, so vaccines are not that effective. You need to compare age cohorts to get a meaningful picture. Plus they elderly may have been left to die and not admitted to ICU in the early waves.

      • Everyone mentions that but I don’t think 60 is that old these days and I’m not near that age. You can’t even retire by then with the retirement age over 65. Most grandparents are around this age.

        I wouldn’t trivalise age. Its all statistics until its your parents, someone’s grandparents, etc.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          Yep, it’s not old these days. From the Israeli data, there’s very few double vaxxed under 60s in ICU. Just an observation.

          As Robert said, makes sense.

    • It’s not a meaningless figure just because you can’t handle the obvious conclusion.

      Most people clogging up ICUs in developed countries worldwide are unvaxxed because they’re petulant narcissists with low intelligence.

      • Jumping jack flash

        I don’t see how narcissism factors into this at all. In fact it is probably just as likely that narcissists would be vaccinated given their innate need to be and feel superior. I’d imagine that these people would likely be the ones putting that “fully vaccinated” thingy on their FB profile pictures.

    • Jumping jack flash

      I read something this morning that attempted to explain why these vaccines appear to “fade” after a time, and why boosters are required and will be required forever despite what anyone says.

      Apparently after vaccination or infection with a virus your body’s immune system goes into a kind of “overdrive” or heightened state which gradually reduces over time until it returns to normal, but your body “remembers” the virus so it can combat it. When a virus is contracted after this period, the body needs to gear itself up to fight it, which takes a bit of time and this time is dependent on many things including age and health etc.

      Apparently this mechanism works well for “slow” viruses like measles and so on that have a longer delay period before they start attacking the body and causing symptoms etc, but for “fast” viruses like flu and corona the body cannot ready itself in time to start killing off the virus before it starts attacking the body and causes sickness, etc.

      This is why boosters are and will be required. The boosters keep the body’s immune system in a perpetual state of “overdrive” so if a virus comes along it can be snuffed out quickly. This also explains why pharmaceutical companies are using the same vaccine as a booster even though its a slightly different virus.

      So the next obvious question is, what’s the long-term effect of having your immune system constantly heightened?

      I don’t know if this is actually true, but if it is, then it explains a lot of things. It also begs quite a few questions that will need answers.

  3. Jumping jack flash

    Nice to see that its getting warmer out. Don’t forget your sunscreen.

    My morning leg of my daily 6k walk to and from the train station to work was slightly uncomfortable this morning.