NSW COVID cases dive as ‘Freedom Day’ date announced

NSW Health has reported 787 locally acquired COVID cases and 12 deaths:

The age profile of the deaths are as follows:

  • Four people were in their 60s
  • Two people were in their 70s
  • Four people were in their 80s
  • Two people were in their 90s

Six people were not vaccinated, five people had received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and one person had received two doses.

There have been 309 COVID-19 related deaths in NSW since 16 June 2021 and 365 in total since the start of the pandemic.

There are currently 1,155 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 214 people in intensive care, 115 of whom require ventilation.

Across NSW, 85.5% of the over-16 population has received a first dose of COVID-19 vaccine, and 60.1% are fully vaccinated.

The next chart plots the NSW’s daily cases, which are tracking at around half the peak:

Active cases have also fallen sharply:

The NSW Government is currently providing a media update, which has outlined a “roadmap to freedom”.

By late October when 80% of NSW residents are fully vaccinated, those who are fully vaccinated:

  • will be allowed to have up to 10 people in their home;
  • will be allowed to take part in community sport; and
  • will be allowed to go to cafes, pubs and restaurants.

Moreover, all venues will operate at a one person per 4 sqm indoors rule, and one person per 2 sqm outdoors rule. Regional travel around NSW will also be permitted.

By 1 December, once 90% of NSW residents are fully vaccinated, unvaccinated residents will be given the same privileges. NSW will effectively be open to all.

Updated – Roadmap below:

Unconventional Economist

Comments

  1. Another double digit death day (12).
    “I love the smell of the corpses in the morning. It smells like… Merdejikli-land.”

      • Luckily, they correctly identified that the problem was their Health Minister (Mykakos) and fixed it.
        Health Hazzard still running wild 18 months after “Ruby Princess”.

        • Yeah, Victoria is the role model now… Best practice. 239 days of lockdown and will remain so after NSW has reopened.

          As a Melburnian, I’d happily change place with Sydney.

          Remember also that NSW took in over 60% of Australia’s international arrivals. Out of all jurisdictions, it took on the most risks. Victoria doesn’t have that excuse.

          • One of your outbreaks started by a Malaysian man who served quarantine in Perth. Another one came out of Adelaide. The latest out of Merdejikliland. Notice the trend? VIC has not exported its outbreaks anywhere. Likely because they used to lock down properly. If only somebody else had…

          • And as for your personal toll, I got stuck o/s the whole 2020 (51 week precisely), only managed to get flight when Tullamarine opened
            for Int’l travel in Dec. Served 2-week quarantine in Melb, and after 53 weeks saw my wife and kids (both under 10). Didn’t blame anyone, just some freaky once-in-a-lifetime natural phenomenon. And now I’m stuck interstate in ACT, because unlike you and your VIC, my state doesn’t want me back because I could be carrying COVID-Merdejiklian!

          • “And as for your personal toll, I got stuck o/s the whole 2020 (51 week precisely), only managed to get flight when Tullamarine opened”.

            Well, if NSW hadn’t taken over 60% of international arrivals (on behalf of all states), you might have been pushed down the queue and not gotten back at all. Something to think about.

    • If post lockdown looks like Israel/ UK on a per capita basis that is about as good as it will get from now on.

  2. Here is the latest government sitrep from Singapore, which made similar promises they weren’t able to keep to their people……starting to reverse things now….it isn’t that simple.

    https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/stabilising-our-covid-19-situation-and-protecting-our-overall-healthcare-capacity_24September2021

    In both the US and UK permanent damage has been done to the public health system by neo-liberal policies, the latest being that precursor material for chemotherapy and other core medicines has been diverted to the production of monoclonal antibody treatments for anti-vaccine people in places like Florida. In Nottingham the list for cancer treatment is blowing out to 10 years.

    It is un-avowed government policy in the US and UK to infect all the school children as a quick way to spread the virus to the whole population and tell everyone that kids don’t die. These are the same people that were wrong about masks, wrong about aerosol transmission and now they are doubling down on their mistakes. No wonder doctors and nurses are voting with their feet.

    • Singapore strikes me as more competent and less corrupt than other governments. I am interested to know what they are doing.

      Employees, contractors, and vendors who are unable to work from home are strongly encouraged to self-test weekly via an Antigen Rapid Test (ART)

      Why can’t we have that test here?

      • our collective governments pay ~ $180 for each covid test, the vast majority of this money goes to the private pathaology companies.

        There has been a massive and sustained lobbying effort by said companies to discredit ART for use in Australia, even when these same tests are an essential component in not only Singapore but Taiwan and more recently Western Europe’s roadmaps for coming out of covid.

      • A professor was being interviewed regarding Singapore last week, mentioned that they are an interesting case as despite very high vax rates they have a large, transient population of poorer migrant workers living in high density locations which manifests in quick breakouts and infection spreads.

        Not sure how much it contributes to the overall picture in Singapore but sounds logical and his conclusion was that it likely cant be used as a like for like comparison to AU.

    • Frank DrebinMEMBER

      Terrible comparison – Singapore is currently under lockdown due to political disagreements behind the scenes over who will be the next PM.

      The old guard want to maintain the patriarchal mandate of protecting a tiny minority of senior citizens who refuse to get vaccinated while the new guard want to press ahead with accelerated re-opening for the benefit of the majority.

      Singapore’s lockdown is being done for political purposes and not public health reasons.

      • Not really. I can still go to the gym, movies, shops and eat out in SG. Kids at school. Under 12’s now HBL. limited to 2 visitors/day.

  3. Yawn. Should have allowed 5 fully vaccinated people into a house from this weekend so we can have a small grand final BBQ.

  4. Is anyone else getting the sense that on full-open, because we didn’t really cop COVID to the degree that other nations less fortunate did, we may well be inundated with elderly in hospitals despite the vaccinations?

    • Plausible. We know all outbreaks are much greater than measured, and that we see (at most) the tip of the iceberg. So its hard to know how many people have flown under the radar and acquired some natural immunity in addition to the vaccine.

      My guess is that we will do OK with 80-90% > 12 vaccinated. With an R0 close to 6 for delta, the vaccine alone won’t stop it. But it will significantly slow it down. In addition, we will have the advantage of warmer weather and more people outside – 3 summers and 3 winters has confirmed there is a a strong seasonal pattern. .

      But the only certain thing these past 20 months is that models and predictions have a poor track record.

    • Yeah, old people will die from/with CV-19, especially those over 80. If they are under 80, vaccinated and somewhat healthy then it warrants research based on average life years in Oz. Remember that something like 80% of a persons medical needs will be consumed in the final few years of their life. Flu, cancer, coronary disease, diabetes, dementia and now CV-19.

    • As a nation our base line is very very low, so what is good by EU/UK standards will be considered the Armageddon here. Will be very interesting to see I guess….. but to be fair, if you are elderly (or otherwise) and unvaccinated by choice then that is a risk you are free to choose and bear (notwithstanding the health resources it will consume)

      • I think the big problem will be that unlike the UK or Italy which saw periods of very high mortality, post open there is a strong chance the daily death toll will rise despite vaccination e.g. UK’s daily deaths (currently 138 on 7 day average) is roughly equivalent to 17 deaths per day in NSW on a per capita basis, close to double NSW’s current 7 day average of nine, which is probably close to peak for this stage of the outbreak – everyone gets vaxxed and deaths double just seems like a tough sell.

      • A market.
        No, a bat
        No a snake
        No, a Pangolin
        No, another bat. In Laos this time. Which hitchhiked to Wuhan.

        BUT none of these related viruses have the unique furin cleavage site. That has never turned up in nature despite 2 years of searching.

        “The Laos study offers insight into the origins of the pandemic, but there are still missing links, say researchers. For example, the Laos viruses don’t contain the so-called furin cleavage site on the spike protein that further aids the entry of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses into human cells.”

        Rather than bats in Laos, why not consider a somewhat closer source. A lab that spent years researching coronaviruses, and which at least contemplated work one this furin cleavage site.

        https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02596-2
        “The study also doesn’t clarify how a progenitor of the virus could have travelled to Wuhan, in central China, where the first known cases of COVID-19 were identified — or whether the virus hitched a ride on an intermediate animal.”

        “Another preprint, also posted on Research Square and not yet peer reviewed, sheds light on the work under way in China. For that study, researchers sampled some 13,000 bats between 2016 and 2021 across China. But they did not find any close relatives of SARS-CoV-2, and conclude that these are “extremely rare in bats in China”.

        “Wang says that both studies highlight the importance of ramping up sampling in regions outside China to help uncover the origins of the pandemic.”
        Why sample outside China?

        • I don’t particularly care. Nor do I believe it’s worth investigating. Nobody knows where the first SARS virus came from exactly. Nor any other virus…

          • Interesting to note that although we seemed to first identify and classify HIV in the early 1980s, it has been found in a blood sample from the 1950s, and is believed to first have infected humans in the 1920s – for all anyone knows sars-cov-2 has been around for decades. Similar to HIV, by the time we figure the origins out, our continued public health response will have nothing to do with how it came infect humans on a large scale.

        • Jumping jack flash

          Until Fauci is made exempt from being tried for crimes against humanity, nobody will ever know.
          I’m sure all the loose ends have been tied up, and all the important data has been disposed of/or vaulted.

          I’m also curious as to exactly what Fauci et al have told all the important people about the virus that has induced so much global panic. It just seems completely disproportionate compared to the actual stats.

  5. Jumping jack flash

    So what does everyone reckon attributed to that massive drop off in active cases in NSW?
    We burned off 10K cases in a day… doesn’t seem right.

    Did everyone stop getting tested?
    Did they change the definition of an active COVID case?
    Did a ton of people die/recover all at once?
    Did they perform a stocktake of the number of people who had COVID?

  6. Here are some rough calculations. There are some wrong assumptions. Posted for discussion.

    NSW population 8,000,000
    80% to be 2xjabbed
    2xjabbed 6,400,000
    unjabbed 1,600,000

    chance of 2xjabbed die = 1 in 10,000
    chance of unjabbed die = 1 in 1,000

    % to eventually get Covid = 100%
    spread over period = 1 year

    number of 2xjabbed to die = 6400000 /10000 = 640
    number of unjabbed to die = 1600000 / 1000 = 1600

    total number to die = 2240
    divide by 50 weeks in year

    44 deaths per week

    • 1 in 1000 chance for unvaxxed to die is way to low – in UK, where most people are vaxxed and most people who catch virus are vaxxed, about 4 in 1000 people who catch it die across vaxxed and unvaxxed. 1 in 100 is a better starting assumption for unvaxxed mortality once caught.

  7. Note: “Quarantine settings for vaccinated arrivals will be altered”
    Translation: Students will be allowed to self quarantine in their dorms.