Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian equities are not yet out of the dark yet with a rally across Chinese shares based on a Evergrande coupon payment but the concern could quickly swift to foreign holders which may upset bond markets tonight, regardless of the latest Fed meeting. The USD remains relatively firm against most of the risk currencies with gold lifting again for the third session in a row, while Bitcoin continues to deflate from its Monday morning start, currently at just above the $42K level, with short term momentum inverting and possibly suggesting a breakout is imminent above the short term trendline:

The Shanghai Composite finally reopened and took the last couple of sessions in its stride, closing 0.4% higher at 3629 points with the Hang Seng Index this time having the day off instead. Japanese risk markets absorbed the latest BOJ meeting with Yen selling off sharply this afternoon while the Nikkei 225 remained in sell mode, losing 0.7% to close at 29639 points as it continues its rollover:

Australian stocks managed to again put in a small rise, with the ASX200 finishing 0.3% higher at 7296 points but still well below previous medium term support as the Australian dollar was unable to get out of its rout after last night’s blip was wiped out, remaining depressed at the mid 72 level:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up around 0.7% with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price once again wanting to bounce back after last night’s dead cat bounce and rollover. But again, this does not yet indicate a move back above the previous support level at 4400 points:

The economic calendar will focus squarely on the FOMC meeting and press conference that is scheduled for very early tomorrow morning, Australian time.

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  1. @JohnR

    “Scientists claim that overeating is not the primary cause of obesity” [Science Daily]. Important:

    The USDA’s Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2020 — 2025 further tells us that losing weight “requires adults to reduce the number of calories they get from foods and beverages and increase the amount expended through physical activity.”

    This approach to weight management is based on the century-old energy balance model which states that weight gain is caused by consuming more energy than we expend….

    The authors of “The Carbohydrate-Insulin Model: A Physiological Perspective on the Obesity Pandemic,” a perspective published in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, point to fundamental flaws in the energy balance model, arguing that an alternate model, the carbohydrate-insulin model, better explains obesity and weight gain. Moreover, the carbohydrate-insulin model points the way to more effective, long-lasting weight management strategies.

    In contrast to the energy balance model, the carbohydrate-insulin model makes a bold claim: overeating isn’t the main cause of obesity. Instead, the carbohydrate-insulin model lays much of the blame for the current obesity epidemic on modern dietary patterns characterized by excessive consumption of foods with a high glycemic load: in particular, processed, rapidly digestible carbohydrates. These foods cause hormonal responses that fundamentally change our metabolism, driving fat storage, weight gain, and obesity.

    Per your last link on intestinal matters …

    • Thanks. So far as I understand, there was a kind of consensus that “all calories are equal*” ie doesn’t matter if they come from sugar, fat, or carbohydrate, but in fact sugar acts pretty much as a hormone beyond its actual calorific value.
      Those sugary fizzy drinks are a crime against humanity in my book.
      *this was used to justify replacement of fats in food with sugar, to make the disgusting cardboard palatable. Whether it was accident or conspiracy or a mix of both, I couldn’t say.

      • The Travelling Phantom

        true, modern diet is so easy to digest and be absorbed and turn to fat and simple sugars …much complex diet would solve the problem, best do like me eat a decent complex meal every 2 days and fast {only water and coffee between the meals}
        humans really dont need to eat more than that not to mention 3…3 meals a day!!!!!!! that is so much food

          • The Travelling Phantom 👻

            Oh, JohnR boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling
            From glen to glen, and down the mountain side.
            The summer’s gone, and all the roses falling,
            It’s you, it’s you people must be like and I must bide.…

      • Let’s not let high cholesterol high fat meat diets (IGR) off the hook. High fat count in blood not helpful to clear sugar from blood

        Eg I can eat choc, Coke and my blood markers in the relevant space are perfectly fine (moderation eh)

        Complex carbs are not to be conflated with simple sugars. Plenty of evidence that WFPB diets are optimum which includes grains legumes vegetables

        Who funded the study by the way (directed at OP)

        • Seeing as you asked…”DSL received grants to study the carbohydrate-insulin model from the NIH (USA) and philanthropies unaffiliated with the food industry, and royalties for books that recommend a carbohydrate-modified diet; his spouse owns a nutrition education and consulting business. LJA received consulting fees from and serves on advisory boards for ERX, Jamieson Wellness, Pfizer, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Janssen, UnitedHealth Group Ventures, and Gelesis; received research funding from Lilly, Janssen, Allurion, and Novo Nordisk; has an equity interest in Intellihealth, ERX, Zafgen, Gelesis, MYOS, and Jamieson Wellness; and serves on the board of directors for Intellihealth and Jamieson Wellness. AA is a member of the Scientific Advisory Boards for WW (USA), RNPC (France), Gelesis (USA), and Novo Nordisk A/S; and is currently employed by the Novo Nordisk Foundation to establish the National Centre for Healthy Weight in Denmark with the aim to prevent childhood obesity. LCC is founder of Faeth Therapeutics, a company that generates diets to enhance responses to cancer drugs. SBH is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board for Medifast. JDJ received research grants to study the role of hyperinsulinemia in metabolism from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; and is cofounder and Board Chair of the Institute for Personalized Therapeutic Nutrition, a registered charity in Canada in which he has no financial interest. RMK is a member of the Scientific Advisory Boards of Virta Health, Day Two, and Seraphina Therapeutics; and received payments from JumpStartMD. GT received royalties for books that discuss the history, science, and therapeutic applications of carbohydrate-restricted eating. JSV received royalties for books on low-carbohydrate diets; is founder and has equity in Virta Health; and serves on the advisory board of Simply Good Foods. ECW received consulting fees from Hill United Health and founded Adapt Your Life, Inc. (equity interest)—both companies founded on low-carbohydrate-diet principles; and received royalties for books that recommend a carbohydrate-restricted diet. WSY received grants to study low-carbohydrate (and other) eating patterns, consulted for Guideline Central on a clinical guideline about low-carbohydrate nutrition, and serves as a scientific advisor for CBE received grants to study the carbohydrate-insulin model from the NIH (USA) and philanthropies unaffiliated with the food industry. All other authors report no conflicts of interest.
          and also:
          No original data were generated for this article.

          • It’s basically about processed foods with little or no nutritional value, hence the IBDs I’ve pointed out before, all coming from nations that have high consumption of such goods such as the U.S. and U.K.

          • I can’t help but notice that this period of obesity due to fkd up diets overlaps greatly with the neoliberal era…the corn plant as a great pest/parasite of humanity…

          • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

            They also discovered crack cocaine, 3-strike automatic life terms and legalised disenfranchisement of citizenry. And Maga.

            Ah… that’s what we can use those tomatoes for.

            Where do you think the food ‘pyramid’ came from?! And why doesn’t it deliver anything but overweight Americans.

        • Check out Dr Sten Ekberg vids on YouTube and he’ll put your theory straight pretty thoroughly. The insulin resistance ones are particularly enlightening.

    • Boom Engineering and I have known this for years. If you’ve ever been into weight lifting and eating right you’ll know that not all calories are equal. Eating unprocessed and natural foods are best.

  2. Victoria Police ban media choppers
    Police have been granted a request to have all aircraft, including media, banned from live streaming aerial footage in a stunning move.

    • The Travelling Phantom

      Do you know why? cause i heard they were afraid of terror attack , hence when the earthquake happened a senior police person said on radio he feared it was an attack

        • If it’s to bash the halfwits co-opting the shrine of remembrance for their meth-addled cause, I’ll allow it.

        • And control which footage to release.
 was using a picture of a tradie laying on the bonnet of a luxury car earlier today to push thier line of the tradies being thugs, but the actual footage had about 4 blokes all calling out that action straight away and getting the bloke off the bonnet asap.
          But we can’t have nuanced media….

      • I reckon in descending order:
        1) To minimise the performative nature of the protests
        2) To increase information asymetry – make it harder for protest coordinator at home tracking where police/protestors are while having that information available to the police
        3) Safety (midair collision risk), if they are planning on deploying drones
        and a distanct 4), to reduce accountability. There are so many cameras around, the lack of one in the air is not likely to miss something that won’t otherwise be caught.

    • My guess is that the protesters were watching the live stream and could see where police were gathering. It looked like they were trying to herd cats again today. They don’t like looking incompetent on national TV.

  3. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Being one born on the edge of the fading world of Rudyard Kipling and H Rider Haggard one has to be thankful one never was required to place ones self on the spectrum of toxic masculinity to herbivorous male .
    Dear me …such a thought ….makes one marvel how Reusa dances across this dangerous landscape . …with gay abandon …..

    • The Travelling Phantom

      why are you interested in that? do you have the hots on lady Thatcher?

      OHHHH that is it! you have a crush on Margrett that’s why you have this major interest in economy , you wanted to impress her…breaking news skip…she passed away…hopefully i did not break your heart

      • Ahhh … Gillian sure but you should have by now grasped my thoughts on anything to do with Hayek et al …

        PS the reporter on the other hand is a sight to behold …

    • “The worker said he and his colleagues had become angry on Monday morning after being presented with a proposal to work six hours without break but to be paid for eight. “People have had a gutful,” he said. “We said f— this, we are going to march and get some answers.”

      I think many people would love to work for 6 hours and be paid for 8.

  4. Caravans in Queensland everywhere. Its like the grey nomads just packed up and came for a visit. They wont have obs. They’ll just sit on the pension outside everyones houses and drop there rubbish everywhere.

  5. Setka should resign. No way known Gallagher or John Cummins would have allowed a bunch of right wing thugs to intimidate the public outside industrial action and destroy union & public property. Brought it on himself by saying the vaccine should be a matter of choice. It’s become a haven for right wing entryists.
    Why is it than in 2021 to espouse belief in “freedom” you need to be covered in tats, overweight, nil understanding of Lockean or Rawlsian liberty – a dummy who believes in KFC food court freedom – freedom to deny another persons right to life by eating KFC at a food court.

    • Really have little sympathy for these idiots. If you don’t want to be vaccinated whatever but trashing shyte and spitting the dummy in your high viz outfit. What is that going to achieve?

      • it will achieve less future union members and public support which is exactly what the hard right want it to achieve.

      • Young Gav, you might want to put that in a script of excel, how they should express their frustrations, and send it to those young tradies..I say , to each their own, they aren’t telling you how to run your life, to object on MB, or other modes of the internet…Each person has a choice in life…You dont get to tell others how to live theirs…think young feller..

        • I was out of work for 4 months last year. No income support etc.. but I didn’t go smashing property up. I didn’t want a vaccine at first either because i figured with Covid under control why rush? But the equation changed thanks to Berejiklian mismanagement of Delta in NSW so I have had the first shot. I’m not an advocate for forcing vaccine on people, but… These guys have had work exemptions right throughout the pandemic and there has been plenty of cases linked to construction in recent weeks. So asking them to get jabbed isn’t the worst request in the world.

          Plus half these misfits are the type that have tried every drug there is and they are worried about a flu shot? I mean let’s get a grip. For a bunch of tough guys they are big babies. Plus they don’t have any actual message it would appear. Just a big dummy spit.

          • “Plus half these misfits are the type that have tried every drug there is and they are worried about a flu shot? I mean let’s get a grip”
            Exactly what % of recreational drugs get approved by the tga after 3 rounds of testing on any given Friday night?

          • Come on Gav. You fear the disease more than the vaccine and accede to the jab, that’s fine. But to then use that decision based on your own personal calculation of risk to say that it’s ok to force others to accept the risk of the vaccine, on pain of losing their livelihoods? That’s scummy.

          • How is that scummy? They have 2 weeks off, big deal. They can make a decision, get vaccined and keep working or find other alternatives. But none of this is really about the vaccines, it’s about a bunch of hooligans hijacking a protest. Most people are willing to get vaccinated, having learnt from other countries on the only way forward.

            As I said, these blokes have had it pretty damn good till this point. They have been able to continue working. But now they are taking liberties and the virus is spreading on building sites. Why should we all sit in lockdown while they enjoy the freedom to move about if they are unwilling to do their bit? Seems damn selfish to me. And to kick up a big stink over it, uneducated neanderthals.

        • they did get to tell others how to live their lives for 3x days in a row.. ie. couldn’t cross the Westgate, couldn’t go for a peaceful walk around the tan.
          Is this really about anti vax for health reasons? that is the same people who are putting tattoo ink in their body and drinking 20 beers and throwing them at the CFMEU door have an epiphany and draw the line at taking a globally tested and approved vaccine designed to keep them healthy.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Yeah, Setka should resign his position.
      From the union.
      For not being right-wing totalitarian enough.
      Sorry, I may have misunderstood, is this the Cvñts For Making Everyone Unemployed union the Libs are running – is that what he should resign from?

      Please explain?

      • ha? he brought it on the union by saying the vax should be a matter of then the right wing members turn around and say “if its a matter of choice why don’t you strike (in response to the Vic government mandate)”
        And there is a pattern of this anti collectivist rogue stuff which reeks of superficial anti left wing hysteria. He has already been kicked out of the party.

        • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

          Ah… He should resign for being too centerist. Got it.

          Along with quite a few other union leaders. Too true.
          Only one of them should / really needs to go for that reason though. Right Sally?