Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

Asian shares remain on tenterhooks as mainland Chinese markets remained closed for a holiday and Japanese stock markets reopened sharply down in the wake of the selloff on Wall Street overnight. The USD remains relatively firm against most of the risk currencies with gold largely unchanged, with all the action in Bitcoin this morning as it flash crashed through the $40K level, having lost 20% since the start of the week, but bounced to the $43K this afternoon:

The Shanghai Composite remained closed with the Hang Seng Index putting in a scratch session after its previous big whallop, closing at 24098 points while Japanese markets reopened and immediately gapped lower with the Nikkei 225 losing more than 2% to 29839 points as it begins a rollover:

Australian stocks managed to pull off a small rise at the close, with the ASX200 finishing 0.3% higher at 7273 points but still well below previous medium term support as the Australian dollar also put in a modest blip, reaching but not breaching the 72.70 level as it remains depressed:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up around 0.5% with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price bouncing back after being considerably oversold last night, but not yet indicating a move back above the previous support level at 4400 points:

The economic calendar is still pretty stark with US housing starts the main release to watch out for overnight.

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Comments

  1. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    So did anyone else attend the UAP rally in Melbourne today? Saw a lot of people wearing yellow, looked kinda exciting.

    • The Travelling Phantom πŸ‘»

      Seems melbourne heading for bcnich style of end of days … a soup van and army in the streets very soon

      • Jumping jack flash

        We needn’t be apprehensive of soup vans. I used to eat at the Lismore one a couple of times a week when I was a starving uni student many years ago. Stay away from the pea soup and you’ll be fine.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Talked to a couple of CFMEU tradies today and they’re filthy. Seems they were indifferent to all the WuFlu stuff until that clown kicked the dog.

      Now they want to go back to work AND hunt down the dog-kicker.

      • I remember 1968. We lived in Paddington St, Paddington (Sydney). It was a slum back then. Our family lived in the top floor front bedroom of the terrace, with two other families in the other bedrooms, sharing one bathroom. I especially remember the stench of the truck that collected the dunny cans from those houses that weren’t connected to the sewer. I bet the current denizens can’t wait to get back to that simpler life πŸ˜‚

        • You should’ve bought any and everything for sale in the suburb. You would be a multi millionaire now – you may already be.

  2. The Traveling Wilbur πŸ™‰πŸ™ˆπŸ™Š

    PS So HODL (HODL) me tight (me tight) Tonight (tonight), tonight (tonight)

  3. Unvaccinated Treated As Sub-Human

    China has had 4 COVID deaths in the past 5 months.

    Country of 1.4 billion people too.

    Shows what can be achieved.

    It’s all beyond the ability of western societies.

    Chinese have the highest average IQs in the world. You have to keep that in mind.

    Smart population with a strong work ethic, ability to delay gratification, the strong make small sacrifices for the weak.

    The west have given up on COVID, sacrifice the weak for the greater good. Salivating at getting injections into children under 12 despite the FDA banning booster shots for those under 65.

    Maybe it’s the Sinovac vaccine? Maybe it’s more effective than the American vaccines. I don’t think anyone actually believes Pfizer has 97% efficacy. Chinese aren’t that brazen with gaslighting their population lol.

      • Unvaccinated Treated As Sub-Human

        18 months ago people talked about lockdowns and social credit scores as some kind of dystopian hell but now everyday life in Australia. In fact the proposed punishments those holding invalid internal passports far more harsh than anything proposed by China. No vaccine no career, only allowed indoors to buy essential food, basically persona non grata in one’s own country.

        Not only that but all the lockdowns and restrictions in Australia were ultimately for nothing because the virus is going to rip through the country.

        Virus is to become endemic in Australia like the rest of the western world. China is virus free. Only 4 deaths in 5 months. Extraordinary. This is Chinese exceptionalism.

        At least by locking down 80 million people out of 1.4 billion for a couple of months the Chinese were able to save the rest of the country and life is largely normal.

      • Unvaccinated Treated As Sub-Human

        No doubt happens but some of it must be urban legend at this point.

        I have videos of Americans such as BLM supporters running up behind elderly white people and bashing them over the back of the head trying to kill them. Then they dance and howl afterwards. What kind of sick society does that to elderly people for kicks.

        There are videos of acid attacks in the UK, stabbings double what they were 10 years, even people breaking into hospitals to finish off stab victims lol. Total failed society in everyway. If you’re not getting stabbed you’re no doubt getting COVID or spreading it to someone eles.

        • Nah dude. There was a reddit sub called r/DeadOrVegetable.
          It was basically Indians getting electrocuted, Russians dying in car accidents and Chinese people running people over and giving zero fcks, Chinese people dying in industrial accidents (wow, that’s why that stuff is cheap), Chinese people drowning in 2 foot of water while crowds watch on only feet away, and so on…
          It was absolutely real.
          It made me feel very sorry for them actually. Life there can be very, very harsh. Makes you wonder why the CCP would want to make things any harder for those people.

        • The Traveling Wilbur πŸ™‰πŸ™ˆπŸ™Š

          There’s a limited target audience for that quip on here (interpretability-wise). Sure you aimed it at the right person?

          Other than that, +1.

    • We already have Reusa doing sarcasm as his schtick. You might be adding too much fuel to the sarcasm fire around here.

  4. The Traveling Wilbur πŸ™‰πŸ™ˆπŸ™Š

    DAX 15,354.35 +222.29 +1.47%

    Seems I’ve fixed thing. I must be a thing fixer!

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Morrison is out of the country again. He does have a knack for making himself scarce at critical times.

    • Well winnie the poo is to blame don’t start something you can’t finish poo or this will be the end of you

    • I think earning money in Australia would be better if it wasnt ending up in the pockets of the few.

      Why do I care if your broke? Does nothing for me.

      There’s too much corruption in Australia and we need to start by fixing that.

      Since the housing bubble, Tradies have been paid ridiculous amounts while the rest of Australia has suffered.

      How many ignorant Tradies are responsible for pushing the migration boom we have today while not giving two sh*ts about the rest of Australia?

      With Iron Prices falling as low as they are ( and stockmarket flow on effects yet to come ), I’d say this is just the beginning of whats to come.
      https://gyazo.com/3bd6d1b786fed6041647c7230131f520

      I think Australia will be just fine. The only ones who will suffer will be those who got greedy and refused to listen.

      • Have to agree, dumb tradies have done well out of sheer luck more than smarts. I could care less if they have 2 weeks off. I had 4 months off last year. No handouts for me. Yet 2 weeks down tools and they crack the sads. All becuse too afraid to get a needle. Muppets. No sympathy.

    • This country already taxes average people highly. It’s BS and needs to stop. They need to start taxing capital and capital gains tax properly. Instead of income.

      • In other words tax on property already paid for with money that has already been taxed. Did you know that some countries don’t have capital gains tax at all?

        • NoodlesRomanovMEMBER

          I just looked those countries up. No surprise they are the tax haven non-states that have no functioning social system (like reticulated sewerage), 3rd world countries, and those that while not imposing a CGT as such, tax it in other ways.

  6. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China … The issues go well beyond Evergrande …

    Evergrande woes hit Japan’s toilet, air-conditioner and paint manufacturers … Hideyuki Sano … Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/article/china-evergrande-stocks-japan/evergrande-woes-hit-japans-toilet-air-conditioner-and-paint-manufacturers-idUSL1N2QN0CZ

    TOKYO (Reuters) – Concern that China Evergrande may default here on its mountain of debt hit shares of toilet maker Toto and other Japanese firms that are seen vulnerable to a further slowdown in China’s property development….

    … β€œYear-to-date debt defaults by real estate companies in China, not just China Evergrande, already exceed the cumulative figure for the past 10 years as tighter regulations bite,” she ( Arisa Katsuyama, analyst at Morgan Stanley ) said, adding investors should bear in mind the risk Toto may have to book loan loss reserves. …

    … Almost a quarter of Daikin’s air-conditioner sales came from China in the last financial year, compared with 13-16% in previous years. …

    … Manufacturers of construction machines, which have long benefited from the construction boom in China, also suffered, with Komatsu losing 5.4% and Hitachi Construction Machinery shedding 5.5%. …

    … β€œIt looks like Chinese authorities are clamping down on outright lavishness, which seems to have support from the Chinese public. That has some resemblance to Japan’s post-bubble era, when expensive house prices were considered bad for ordinary people.” … read more via hyperlink above …

    These numbers show just how big a headache Evergrande is for China … Quartz

    https://qz.com/2062171/by-the-digits-how-big-a-headache-is-chinas-evergrande/

    “Many People Will Be Arrested” – Evergrande Lured Retail Investors Into Billions Of “Wealth Management Products” With Gucci Bags, Dyson Air Purifiers … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/many-people-might-be-arrested-evergrande-lured-retail-investors-billions-wealth-management

    The problems run much deeper than the real estate fiasco …

    Worsening China’s employment crisis/Thousands of workers are protesting/Samsung, Toshiba and more … China Insights … Youtube
    … move cursor back to start if necessary …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKHnw1tOXZc&t=605s