Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

A very mixed start to the trading week here in Asia with mainland Chinese and Japanese stock markets closed, but that hasn’t stopped the selloff on the back of the Evergrande and iron ore price implosions, with local markets down over 2% while the Australian dollar dives deeper as well. The USD remains firm against all the risk currencies with gold still flummoxed at well below the $1800USD level, barely holding on here at $1750:

The Shanghai Composite was closed but the Hang Seng Index is a harbinger for steep falls tomorrow with the selloff steepening, losing over 3% to be at 24123 points for a new monthly low. Japanese markets were closed but Nikkei 225 futures are indicating a walloping on the open , with the USDJPY pair about to rollover again as it heads back below the 110 handle having failed to make a new weekly high in its last rally:

Australian stocks sold off fast and fierce with the ASX200 closing more than 2% lower at 7248 points as medium term support was wiped out last week in advance of today’s rout. Meanwhile the Australian dollar was immediately pushed down and is heading towards the 72 handle with momentum looking towards retest the August lows:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are down over 0.7% so far as we head into the London open with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price diving deep below the previous support level above 4400 points with this dip not yet having the BTFD crowd stepping in, are we due for a correction?

The economic calendar starts the week very quietly without much on the agenda, apart from some Treasury auctions.

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Comments

  1. FDA Banned Boosters

    That Porter is a smart fellow engineering all of this. Basically suicide by cop.

    He couldn’t just stand down otherwise we’d know the rape allegations were true he needed something bad enough to quit over but something that most Aussies would not give a sh!t about such as getting someone to pay for your legal expenses. Most Aussies hate the ABC anyway, plus most Aussies cheat on their taxes and game the system so Porter was just being an opportunist which is basically a national character trait. Protecting his mates and not dobbing them in too people will look at that very favourably. He’s a real throwback Aussie. Real ocker stuff.

    Alan Bond is a scumbag but greatly admired. All Aussies want to be white collar crooks at the end of the day it’s like the highest calling.

    Certainly better than being known as rapist.

    He’ll sit on the backbench in anonymity now and no doubt leak some more stuff about Crazy Kate (woman talking about bruises appearing 30 years later that’s some real cuckoo mental asylum stuff I think Porter has won over the average liberal voter with that juicy nugget).

  2. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    Of course ScoMo and Josh will see this as an excuse to blame offshore for the housing bubble….

    The Global Housing Market Is Broken, and It’s Dividing Entire Countries
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-19/global-housing-markets-are-hurting-and-it-s-getting-political?srnd=premium-europe

    and could I just add that a small group of MB related punters also put in a submission to the Housing Affordability Inquiry – calling themselves Australians for Intergenerational Equity.

    Submission 60 (only went up on their site today)

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/Tax_and_Revenue/Housingaffordability/Submissions

    • NoodlesRomanovMEMBER

      ‘The recommendation from this submission for the latest inquiry is that a clear reporting and analysis mechanism be established so as to enable those Australians seeking to see a government act clearly and methodically in the interests of Australians.’

      Such as?

    • Jumping jack flash

      If they’d just scratch the surface a bit they’d realise that houses themselves have very little to do with it. A house is just a usefully-sized debt-bucket that most people can have access to.

      The real aim is to get people to use debt, and once debt is needed, its needed forever. Just imagine trying to buy a house without using debt these days. Try and save up even a tiny $400k for some knockdown in the middle of nowhere. Absolutely impossible!

      But on the bright side, it should be pretty clear by now that any and every problem that Australia has is not unique to Australia.

    • The Traveling Wilbur 🙉🙈🙊

      Please tell us it used the phrase: “…looser fiscal management is required…”.

    • AUDUSD is tanking.

      Boomers giving back all the money they owe from extortion rackets they’ve run over the years.

      I think I’ll go have me a Pizza and some home brewed beer while I watch the Baby Boomers cringe.

      There’s no way in hell this is lasting another 17 years. Boomers have wrecked there retirement well and truly.

      They should of listened ;p

      • Cashed out – just in case.

        And got nothing for the bets on Oliver Tracc and Walsh. 🤷‍♀️

        On Viney 🧨 for the Norm Smith and also Petracca

        Man, it’s a GF for the ages for the neutral observer

        Was planning on a surf at Byron but seeing as fkwits from. Sydney keep bringing cases up here , we’ll still be locked down. 2-3 hr ride in the hills, mow the lawns, chores….
        No beers until half time if close. If we don’t show up – turn off in disgust and watch House Hunters International. Keep Balvenie for next year. Or 2064.

      • Fri 24 Sep
        11pm
        Go to bed, sleep serenely in knowledge that demons are sure things and cannot lose.
        Sat 25 sep
        6am
        Wake up in cold sweat knowing deep in soul that we will suffer either a drubbing or a close heartbreaking loss.
        6:00 – 6:10
        Lie in bed staring at ceiling trying to calm self down.
        6:11
        Put on radio. Listen to experts pronouncing Doggies as sure things.
        6:15 – 6:30
        Lie in bed staring at ceiling trying to calm self down.
        6:35
        Go to kitchen, make soothing coffee.
        6:36
        While waiting, check demonland for words of solace.
        7:15
        Cheer up reading words of encouragement. Go back to kitchen. Discover cold coffee. Put in microwave.
        7:16
        Check demonland. Read single post that puts chills of fear into soul.
        7:20
        Shower to warm up.
        7:25
        Continue shower to contemplate horror of after-match celebrations of Doggies.
        7:45
        Run out of hot water. Get out and get dressed. Suffer crippling paralysis at thought of Bailey Smith winning the Norm Smith.
        8:05
        Finish getting dressed.
        8:06
        Go to kitchen, get cold coffee out of microwave. Pour into sink, start again.
        8:07
        Check mail. Nothing.
        8:08
        Check messages on phone. Note some good luck messages, become utterly psychically eradicated by one mocking taunt from close friend.
        8:10
        Go to bathroom. Wet towel is evidence of already having showered. Leave bathroom.
        8:15
        Go for walk to calm nerves.
        8:20
        A fat lot of good that did. Go back home.
        8:25
        Meditate to sooth jangled nerves.
        8:26
        Stupid meditation. Remember coffee. Put in microwave.
        8:27
        Go outside.
        8:28
        Go back inside.
        8:29
        Go outside.
        8:30
        Wave to Collingwood supporting neighbour. Return wave. Take no comfort from encouraging words from neighbour. Suffer wave of nausea imagining neighbour’s post-match taunts.
        8:31
        Go back inside.
        8:32
        Check demonland.
        9:00
        Watch television. It’s all crap.
        9:15
        Check demonland.
        10:45
        Drag self out of depression. Get cold coffee from microwave. Throw out. Put on kettle for new coffee.
        10:50
        Check demonland.
        11:00
        Shake self out of torpor and anxiety. Go outside to do some gardening.
        11:05
        Spray weedkiller on plants. Get hose and wash off. Get water everywhere. Pull up weeds by design, plants by accident. Dump weeds, plants, weedkiller, fertlizer, gloves, in bin. Go inside and change clothes.
        11:20
        Check demonland.
        11:40
        Go outside.
        11:41
        Go back inside.
        11:42
        Go on walking inspection of house interior.
        11:43
        Inspection complete. Check demonland. Feel nagging anxiety increase.
        12:05
        Check phone. Fail to cheer up over cheering messages, hit maximum anxiety over jeering messages.
        12:10
        Check demonland.
        12:40
        Go outside.
        12:41
        Go back inside.
        12:42
        Watch  television. It’s all crap.
        13:00
        Go for walk to calm nerves.
        13:05
        A fat lot of good that did. Go back home.
        13:10
        Meditate to sooth jangled nerves.
        13:11
        Stupid meditation. Remember cold coffee. Put in microwave.
        13:12
        Make lunch in spite of no appetite.
        13:30
        Sit down for lunch.
        13:40
        Throw uneaten lunch in bin. Put kettle on for coffee.
        13:45
        Check Bunnings web site. Order seeds, potting mix, gardening gloves and stanley knife.
        14:00
        Check demonland.
        14:30
        Go outside.
        14:31
        Go back inside.
        14:32
        Meditate to sooth jangled nerves.
        14:33
        Stupid meditation. Re-boil kettle.
        14:44
        Search for old footy to have a kick to settle nerves.
        14:55
        Find footy. Discover laces old and broken. Search for pump.
        15:10
        Find pump. Pump up footy. Bladder bulges out where laces disintegrated. Throw footy in bin.
        15:15
        Check demonland.
        15:45
        Re-boil kettle.
        15:46
        Remember the sun is over the yardarm. Check supply of spirits. Whiskey!
        15:47
        Fret that whiskey supply is low. Check web site for nearest Dan’s or BWS.
        15:55
        Drive to bottle shop. Pick up whiskey.
        16:25
        Re-boil kettle.
        16:30
        Get message from Bunnings that order is ready for collection.
        16:32
        Get in car, drive to Bunnings, pick up order. Note number of cars with Doggies scarves. Anxiety level to 90%.
        17:15
        Re-boil kettle. Turn on tv for pre-match warmup shows. They’re all crap.
        18:00
        Re-boil kettle, make coffee. Add whiskey. Ahhhhh.
        18:10
        Discover nerves are at 100% fever pitch despite whiskey. Go outside.
        18:11
        Go back inside.
        18:12
        Meditate to sooth jangled nerves.
        18:13
        Stupid meditation. Check demonland.
        18:45
        Nearly game time. Panic attack. Boil kettle for coffee. Take shot of whiskey straight while waiting.
        18:50
        Make coffee. Trembling hands spill it everywhere. Re-boil kettle. Take shot of whiskey straight while waiting.
        19:00
        Watch players warm up. Sooth jangled nerves by cheering demons and booing dogs. Desperately try to ascertain clues to performance by how the players jog sideways, roll the ball on the ground, etc. Anxiety increase to 150%.
        19:10
        Anthem and other frippery. Rage at universe for making you wait.
        19:15
        Game on! Watch as demons tear the dogs a new one. Race around living room with each goal as Demons pile on a record score. Catharsis, and all emotion is replaced by a joyful high.
        10:00
        Rejoice as the demons hoist the cup. Laugh, cry, text friends, take straight shot of whiskey. Take another straight shot of whiskey.
        10:30
        Check demonland.
        Sunday 26 sep
        03:00
        Go to bed. Fail to sleep.

        • Sounds a bit like me on the day for 2010 NRL Grand Final (although I did actually go to the game rather than to Bunnings!).

          Apparently I took the kids to the zoo in the morning – I literally have no recollection of it but the Missus showed me the photos.

          The 3am thing was pretty much the time that I called it a night too!

    • The Travelling Phantom 👻

      Oh boy…oh boy! I’m feeling very nervous about the whole thing…it’s been along wait..all my life!
      Crossing my fingers the bad luck is out now the gastro incident has passed alright

      • Mark Knight posters?? Nnoooo
        I got the road to the GF tshirt. Ordered 9 days ago. Still not here. Contemplating limited edition sherrin. Inside Perspex case. Throw case out.

      • Ps Pert said they have sold everything – reordered 2-3 over. The Road to the GF tee? 10k units sold – that’s about 300k net profit – makes up for about half the NT game, but still a big hole from losing QBW gate v the Pies ($1M!!). Hope we get QBW next year.

        In any case win and everything else follows

  3. Jumping jack flash

    And just when MB fund was starting to kick off for me.
    Lucky I’m not all in.
    Good work regardless guys.

  4. FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

    Lol construction shut in Vic for 2 weeks after anti-vax rtards attacked CFMEU headquarters.

    If construction didn’t have it coming, I dunno who did..

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      When Setka asked if they wanted the industry shut down they all cheered so I guess it was unanimous.

      Not sure there was a lot of actual construction workers there though.

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        Nah true that. Potentially hijacked by some violent elements. Mind you, ive seen plenty of tradies openly taking the p1ss with restrictions.

        Would’nt surprise me if the sector is over-represented with the magical thinking that leads to the oxymoron that is “anti lockdown protests”

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        CFMEU claims to have over 100,000 members. That’s a tiny proportion of the members.

        There footage on Twitter of one man-child booting a pedestrian’s dog. Cruel and stupid.

        If there are any Union members in that crowd, they won’t be for long.

  5. AUDUSD is tanking.

    Boomers giving back all the money they owe from extortion rackets they’ve run over the years.

    I think I’ll go have me a Pizza and some home brewed beer while I watch the Baby Boomers cringe.

    There’s no way in hell this is lasting another 17 years. Boomers have wrecked there retirement well and truly.

    They should of listened ;p

    • The did listen to decades of Chicago school economics and free market PR …. after wages were crammed down and then jobs offshored ….

  6. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Now watch the fighting really begin in Melbourne. You can crush compliant office and retail pansies but not real blokes that actually work! LOLOLOL.

    • Life would have been a lot easier if we hadnt created a Housing Bubble and destroyed all the business’s.

      What idiot would start a business in this climate? The rent alone will kill you… let alone there being no profits.

      • Jumping jack flash

        Debt has a much smaller carbon footprint compared to actually making things.
        Its not the only reason for it, but its very convenient.

    • Lord DudleyMEMBER

      Soon vaccine availability will be high enough that we can start excluding all these self-selecting plague rats from places of employment. Of course, after that comes eviction as they fail to pay rent and mortgages, and they’ll blame everyone but themselves for their self-induced predicament. A housing solution will need to be found for these jelly-brains. I suggest the government start building some nice remote tent-style accommodation out in the desert somewhere. The anti-social unemployed evicted plague rats can be sent there.

      If you let the anti-social irresponsible plague rats stay near decent people, they’ll just lie and steal and break things and kick peoples’ dogs because they have no moral fibre at all. Better to send them far away.

      • Jumping jack flash

        Im hoping the mob will let me get away with just putting a big “unclean” banner in my front yard and perhaps sprinkle some biohazzard signs around the place and in the windows…

    • And now the fool is buying the dip

      https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/bitcoin-price-latest-el-salvador-b1923245.html

      The world has well and truly lost the plot. We’re on the cusp.

      “We just bought the dip. 150 new coins! El Salvador now holds 700 coins,”

      It’s a clownshow wrapped up in a s____show all going straight to hell.

      But don’t worry! he says! They have 700 tokens!
      Buy the dip!

      How much has El Sal lost in USD since he started buying thin air?

      “They can never beat you if you buy the dips. Presidential advice.”

      That is not a desperate statement from a terrified investor. No.

      • With the free energy from their state owned oil, they can mine bitcoins which is a way of earning export income, a good way around trade sanctions

  7. Even Stan Grant was taken aback on China tonight in an interview with Victor someone talking (on China’s behalf) about nuking Australia over the subs.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Those kind of threats have me thinking we should be armed to the teeth with Nukes too.
      If its OK for China to arm North Korea with them why shouldn’t we have several 100 US designed ones we can strike back with.
      Put them on a shyte load of those Russian style mobile missile launchers hidden in 100s of caves and bunkers across our vast inland deserts should do the trick.
      At sea Nuks make our ports a target and I’m guessing it probably cost more to field them that way, so probably best to keep most of them on land.
      But I suppose if you can secretly place them closer to their targets, sitting on the sea floor for months at a time has its advantages to.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        There was a politically insular country that started buying a hell of a lot Australian iron about 90 years ago. They built a blue water navy with it, while professing their peaceful intentions.

        History sure does rhyme.

      • Russia (when it was the Soviet Union), , not China, who provided North Korea with the nuke. Nevertheless, once we have chosen to go with nuclear submarines, Australia’s further development of nuclear capability is inevitable.

      • EP that is why we are getting Nuclear subs and Tomahawk missiles.
        neither of which are any use without Nukes.
        The Scrotum says No we are not arming with Nukes. Do you believe him ?
        It won’t do us any good as China has said , we are now a nuclear target with 80% of our poplation in 6 cities.
        KABOOM !!!
        It would have been better to drink less of the USA Koolaid , and benn a Neutral.

  8. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China’s Evergrande woes go global … with fragile and unsustainable bubbles everywhere …

    Yahoo Finance

    https://finance.yahoo.com/

    China Evergrande contagion concerns rile global markets … Clare Jian … Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-evergrande-shares-plummet-default-risks-2021-09-20/

    Goldman Issues A Dire Warning On China’s Property Sector … Zerohedge

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-issues-dire-warning-chinas-property-sector

    The Global Housing Market Is Broken, and It’s Dividing Entire Countries … Alan Crawford … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-09-19/global-housing-markets-are-hurting-and-it-s-getting-political

    • Wall St. to China: “We’re collapsing. Do something! Bail out Evergrande.”
      China: What do you mean, “we,” white man?

    • Foreign investors piled into the property sector over the years, buying hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds, including dollar bonds issued by China’s property developers. They bought those bonds because they liked those yields, in some cases over 10%, thinking that the Chinese government wouldn’t let those companies default, that it would bail out the bondholders as it bailed out so many bondholders before, and surely it would do it again, given how crucial the funding of the property sector is to the Chinese economy.

      And now just about everything has gone wrong for these foreign investors. For months, there has been a massive crackdown by Chinese authorities on liquidity-driven inflows into the housing sector.

      Authorities cracked down on overleveraged property developers. They targeted mortgage approvals and interest rates for first-time buyers. They tamped down on rental growth. They pushed banks to reduce their lending to homebuyers. A national property tax has been put on the table.

      And this was topped off with an increasingly strained relationship between the Chinese government and the United States government, that includes major steps by the US government to crack down on speculation by Chinese entities in the US stock markets.

      China’s crackdown on property speculation is guided by the official mantra that “housing is for living, not for speculation.”

      That massive amount of speculation and leverage has for years posed enormous risks to financial stability. And the government is now trying to defuse those risks – and it looks like at the expense of foreign investors that have bought those hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds.

      Those foreign investors are suddenly realizing that they’re no longer sacred and that the government may not bail them out.

      Bailouts had been taken for granted, given how important the property sector is to China’s economy, and foreign investors whose money was needed to fuel that property speculation, had felt secure in their thinking that China would bail out those bonds if push came to shove.

      Now push is coming to shove.

      https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/09/wolf-richter-what-a-collapse-of-chinas-evergrande-would-mean.html

      So who is really in trouble here – ?????