Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Morning

The selloff continues here in Asia as the fallout from the Evergrande collapse spreads throughout the region, with only local stocks rebounding on the latest unemployment figures. The USD is firming once more against the risk currencies with gold still holding below the $1800USD level, while Bitcoin has picked up again, pushing through the $48K level as it discards short term resistance that had held since last week’s dump and pump:

The Shanghai Composite fell sharply after gapping higher at the start of the session, falling 1.2% to be just above the 3600 points level while the Hang Seng Index has continued its very sharp retracement, falling another 2% lower to finish well below the 25000 point level at 24563 points. Japanese stocks are also pulling back for the second consecutive session with the Nikkei 225 down 0.6% to 30323 points, not helped by a much stronger Yen as the USDJPY pair remains well below the 110 handle for a new weekly low:

Australian stocks were the only market to not experience any falls, with the ASX200 actually lifting 0.6% to 7460 points while the Australian dollar was pushed back down to the 73 handle following today’s unemployment figures, with momentum looking towards retesting the lows:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are holding on to last night’s moves with the former up 0.2% or so, while the latter are again flat heading into the London open. The four hourly chart of the S&P500 shows price hovering at the 4470 point level with momentum still not yet positive in the short term:

The economic calendar includes Euro wide trade balance figures, then US retail sales for August and weekly initial jobless claims.

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Comments

    • Pettis has been condemning on this, and Chinese property, for a while now. The picture I get is that China know they have a property bubbles and know they have to deal with it. Perhaps this is China’s chance to do that. They let the group fail and dampen enthusiasm in property. They could use the event as a reason to refocus where the money goes. Good for them if they do. Obsession with has damaged this country and I wouldn’t wish it upon another populace.

    • The Travelling Phantom 👻

      Isn’t in the Australian laws something of similarity? If so how will the crew jump from Circular Quy into the subs if nuclear engines ain’t allowed?

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      I’d say I’m in the vast majority of people that sees that as the days go by it becomes clearer that Australia needs to uphold its original plan to annex the colony of NZ.

  1. So allegedly the Lismore covid case flew to Sydney , caught it and came back
    WTAF – isn’t there a travel ban/permit system? Fk those guys

  2. SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

    Jebus Hugh White and Kevin Rudd losing their shyt tonight 🤣🤣🤣

    Special thanks to Hugh, he really made me Laugh 😆

  3. How long does it take America to build one of its subs? Times it by 2.5 to 3 and I think we’ll have an idea when it’s might hit the water.

  4. Jumping jack flash

    A few people around the interwebs remarking that Aus stuffed up a $100bn submarine deal.

    $100bn is a doddle, especially over the amount of time we were engaged with the subs. Its good value for money considering that $100bn is what everyone pays in interest each and every year for our pile of outstanding mortgage debt.

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Update … China Tells Banks Evergrande Won’t Pay Interest Next Week … Bloomberg …

    China’s Nightmare Evergrande Scenario Is an Uncontrolled Crash … Hong Shen, Enda Curran and Sofia Horta e Costa … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-16/china-s-nightmare-evergrande-scenario-is-an-uncontrolled-crash

    Protests intensify at China Evergrande Group offices across the country as the developer falls further behind on promises to more than 70,000 investors. Construction of unfinished properties with enough floor space to cover three-fourths of Manhattan grinds to a halt, leaving more than a million homebuyers in limbo.

    Fire sales pummel an already shaky real estate market, squeezing other developers and rippling through a supply chain that accounts for more than a quarter of Chinese economic output. Covid-weary consumers retrench even further, and the risk of popular discontent rises during a politically sensitive transition period for President Xi Jinping. Credit-market stress spreads from lower-rated property companies to stronger peers and banks. Global investors who bought $527 billion of Chinese stocks and bonds in the 15 months through June begin to sell. …

    … Evergrande had 1.3 trillion yuan ($202 billion) in presale liabilities at the end of June, equivalent to about 1.4 million individual properties that it has committed to complete, according to a Capital Economics report last week. … read more via hyperlink above …
    .
    .
    Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd puts it all in a broader context. Note in particular what Mr Rudd says 20 minutes in about China’s demographic realities …

    Kevin Rudd on China’s New Economic Approach … Asia Society … Youtube
    … move back to start if necessary …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpLECUjTZwQ

    Population Crisis/The marriage divorce rate is surprisingly high at 35% among the post-90s in China … China Insights

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24H7ltivcSY

    Will He Become China’s Top Leader? Who will he replace, Li Keqiang or Xi Jinping? | Wang Yang … China Observer … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zK5P3kiTkA