Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A much better finish to the trading week here in Asia with stock markets rebounding following yesterday’s selloff. Risk currencies were basically unchanged, although Yen sold off against USD as risk appetites broadened throughout the session. Gold is back up above the $1800USD level but only just, while Bitcoin is again largely unchanged by hovering just above the $46K level, finding only a modicum of support:

The Shanghai Composite is putting in a fine finish, cracking through the 3700 point level while the Hang Seng Index has reversed all its losses from the previous session, up over 1.6% to 26131 points. Japanese stocks paused only briefly yesterday and have re-engaged, with the Nikkei 225 finishing 0.6% higher to 30327 points, continuing its epic run:

Australian stocks had the most modest of sessions with the ASX200 eventually finishing only 0.5% higher at 7406 points while the Australian dollar continued to pause its deflationary run from the pfrevious its Friday night over-reach, finding more support at the 73.80 level as short term support builds:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are coming back sharply as we head into the London open, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to break back above the 4500 point level, as momentum reverts from its previous oversold condition. Watch for European stocks to be the fly in the ointmentn however:

The economic calendar finishes the week with a few bangers, namely German (and here ECB) inflation, then UK GDP and the US wholesale inventories report.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. Unvaccinated Treated As Sub-Human

    Maybe China has a point about the US being responsible for COVID, exporting it to them through frozen food.

    If the US is willing to lie about WMD’s in order to justify invading a country and destroying its society then surely it wouldn’t be beyond them to package a virus with frozen food.

    Trying to infect a country with a virus is small potatoes compared to decimating middle eastern nations.

    Actually makes sense when you think about the US’s track record.

  2. Re: Bin Chicken not doing daily pressers.

    Can I just say – thank fk!

    Twitterverse seems to be apoplectic over the decision. I don’t get the outrage – it’s the same sh!t every day. The roadmap is out and like it or not, that’s what she’s sticking to be it on her head.

  3. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Had a catch up with a few friends in the local park this morning after my power walk, masks off but holding our long since empty coffee cups, and every single person agreed that Gladys is doing a great job and along with Scomo is transitioning us well into the global community by weening people off listening to the chicken sh1ts. She and Scomo will win their elections, guaranteed!!!

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Remember on a beautiful southern summer evening standing by that great pedestal and looking up at this great towering statue and thinking how great was America . They can tolerate their losers and even celebrate them .

    I look at that pedestal in the photos and feel a little sad

    Look forward ( should I live long enough ) to see what the great union of black and brown as scrawled over it will raise in up in its place .

    https://amp.9news.com.au/article/536adea7-22e6-42bf-9b81-75f748eb4085

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      GOLD. Who knew Democrats had a sense of humour (and the brains to do anything about it, for a change).

      That’s up there with raising the mimimum wage to something liveable, or requiring the electorate to pass both a background check and IQ test before being eligible to vote.

      • Jumping jack flash

        And trillions of dollars of stimulus to breathe life back into their crumbling economy of debt.

        We should learn a thing or two but observation translating into new knowledge is like water off a duck’s back to our great leaders.

  5. https://theshot.net.au/general-news/the-great-forgetting-project/

    The great forgetting project

    By Dave Milner
    September 10, 2021
    When politicians squirm under the flaky focus of the public spotlight, much of Australia’s mainstream media willingly dresses the stage and provides the soundtrack for a more flattering narrative. Mauled minds eventually give way under the onslaught of reframing and spin, and fading memories, the vague knowledge that it wasn’t always like this – that we were asked to care about different things only a moment ago – collapse. The great forgetting project conquers all it needs to, and Scott Morrison is better at conducting this symphony than he is at anything else.

    From the pandemic, to the climate crisis, to the war in Afghanistan, to the waning popularity of Australia’s least interested Prime Minister, these past weeks have seen discussions pivoted in conservative media so dramatically the brazenness is almost impressive.

    ***

    The war in Afghanistan lasted two decades. At least 71,000 Afghan and Pakistani civilians were killed. Despite the US spending $2 trillion on the war and losing 3590 military lives, it ended largely where it began: the Taliban in power and cynical Western politicians trying to play the superhero, media fanning their capes and stuffing their jocks.

    As Scott Morrison was condemned quite justifiably for Australia’s pitiful efforts to save lives on its exit from Afghanistan, the most recent site of Australian war crimes, Rupert Murdoch’s The Daily Telegraph trotted out the action man with the soft beating heart for the downtrodden.
    A brief ad:

    At the risk of sounding cynical, this did not happen. Not only is no one quoted in this story and the ever-full-of-shit Prime Minister’s Office is clearly the source of this information, it also makes very little sense: chaos erupting, the Taliban closing in on Kabul airport, scrambling soldiers waiting for personal clearance from Scott Morrison, a man who is not the “Commander in Chief” of Australian military operations but who has clearly seen a bunch of American movies beyond The Croods – a Prime Minister packing a notoriously shitty track record on women and refugees and even picking up the phone – personally holding back the last flight out so an Afghan mother and child could be flown to safety, because he so clearly cares deeply about this sort of thing.

    Righto.

    “The Saturday Telegraph understands,” the paper wrote – stretching the definition of “understands” – that “Mr Morrison asked the plane to stay on the ground at Hamid Karzai International Airport for a few more minutes to give officials time to scour the tarmac for her and the child. Once the mother and child were located and loaded onto the plane, Mr Morrison gave the clearance for wheels up, and the flight left Afghanistan. Within hours of Australia’s departure, two bombs detonated near the airport, killing at least 103 people, including 13 US military personnel.”

    That Morrison’s involvement is beyond the realms of the plausible does not really matter. The military and national security are the surest ways to ensure embarrassing FOIs never emerge to contradict this.

    The image and the headline is all that will last, the rest will be lost in the fuzz. Australia accepted a piddly 3000 refugees and Peter Dutton even took that opportunity to warn us that there totes probably might be terrorists in that allotment. But this one woman, her child, the image of both, and their heroic saviour, will linger longer than any of these details. Morrison, compassionate and competent, two traits not obviously in abundant supply, are the engineered remains as glimpsed via the warped lens of The Daily Telegraph, the Rugby League edition of The Herald Sun. And the right amount of this sort of thing is all it takes sometimes.

    ***

    On the climate crisis, NewsCorp, the media arm of the Liberal Party, orthodoxy propaganda for the rich and powerful, “announced” this week that it would move away from its decades-long campaign of outright climate denialism and would instead shift to stalling progress in ways that seem more reasonable on the surface than this sort of thing.

    Which will, in reality, almost certainly just amount to more of this sort of thing.

    The “news” of News’ editorial pivot was “leaked” to NineFax newspapers because it, of course, could not be announced directly in NewsCorp papers. The admission that yes, The Herald Sun, Sky News, The Tele, etc., had paved the way for Australia’s unrelenting climate crimes for 30 fucking years with reams of unscientific shite would be too strong a dose of reality for the people that like to parrot and spread the stupid things said inside these stupid newspapers.

    And if you’re not yet convinced about NewsCorp’s good intentions, Joe Hildebrand, a columnist whose answer to every problem in the entire world is “can everyone please stop yelling”, will headline the pivot. Just wonderful stuff.

    As Ketan Joshi points out in detail in Renew Economy, climate denial takes many forms in 2021: outright rejection of the science is less viable now that the world is quite often on fire and flooded to obviously new, entirely predicted degrees. The conservative angle coal oligarchs prefer now is to delay as much as possible serious action while the pilfering continues during the remains of their mortal lifespans: 2050 targets not the more immediate action the world needs, slower and “more realistic and reasonable” transitions to clean energy, et fucking cetera. This is what NewsCorp will back.

    One day, if the world manages to remember, News Corporation’s contributions to the climate crisis will be considered a betrayal of our species and our planet. This pivot is about making sure the world doesn’t remember.

    ***

    And on the pandemic front, the grand political narrative shift underway is that Australian deaths are no longer entirely “Dictator Dan’s” fault, they are now “inevitable”. The first part of this equation was never true – 655 of Victoria’s 823 deaths in 2020 occurred in Federally managed aged care centres, and the hotel quarantine leak that began the second wave, now, after 40-ish such occurrences, is quite obviously a feature of hotel quarantine itself not imaginary Communist dictatorships. And the second part, the “inevitable” clause, did not need to be hurried along prematurely quite so enthusiastically and carelessly. It was more avoidable than this.

    The Delta strain being staggeringly contagious and the arrival of vaccines – however slowly and ineptly – has shifted the landscape of the pandemic. This is undeniable. But self-interest and party loyalty casting this deep a shadow over the nation’s media, politics, and by extension our public health response, is disturbing. In hindsight I don’t know why so many of us expected better.

    Countless Australians are alive today because of the sacrifices of ordinary people and various states’ commitment to life, collective safety, and to eradicating coronavirus out of existence – even when they had to pretend they weren’t doing that. But it does not matter, again, because the monolith is moving as quickly as the Delta variant.

    Where once new coronavirus case numbers fell in-sync with the easing of restrictions, they now peak alongside proposed picnics. “Freedom” has become the go-to answer to serious questions about life and death; “pre-existing condition” has become code for mortalities we are asked to collectively value less; the elderly have been described as having “age issues”; “Death is horrible, but” and “you’ll be able to go to funerals again” the sorts of things uttered by the architects of this particular pandemic period: Gladys Berejiklian, a disturbingly gleeful and shitty neighbour, and Scott Morrison, the nation’s most prolific coiner of slogans that feel criminally stupid mere moments after they’ve been uttered.

    Blame is shifting to the sick and the vulnerable, not the disease, and certainly not the relevant failings of the powerful to protect us from it – which we are now unequivocally being asked to care about less. Arriving with it all: the expanded social licence to give less of a shit.

    As NSW and Victoria enter this next phase of the pandemic, one state oddly enthusiastically about it, the other dragged along mourning what it previously won at great cost multiple times – a Covid-zero existence: Covid being bad, zero of it being pretty fucking good – we learnt via The Saturday Paper that hospitalisation rates are up to three times higher than reported. We learnt that Health Minister Greg Hunt did, in fact, as was pretty bloody obvious last month, tell Pfizer to piss off, a key reason the nation is not vaccinated enough to avoid its current fate. And we also learnt, on the morning NSW Health tweeted “ROADMAP TO FREEDOM UNVEILED FOR THE FULLY VACCINATED” in a tone-deaf deranged all-caps, that Dr Kerry Chant advised the state’s leadership to reopen at closer to 85% vaccine coverage, not 70%, because of all the likely, you know, avoidable death.

    Labor states are being attacked relentlessly for keeping borders shut, while Liberal states with closed borders are quietly hoping no one continues to notice. NSW has been funnelled disproportionately more vaccine than was publicly disclosed and agreed to, and is relentlessly crowing about the fact they’ve somehow administered more vaccine. “I signed up to a national plan to vaccinate our nation, not a national plan to vaccinate Sydney,” said Daniel Andrews, Premier of Victoria, clearly thrilled to bits about it all. “Some don’t like to see this as a race, but a race it surely is. What I didn’t know was that Premier Berejiklian is in a sprint, while the rest of us are supposed to do some sort of egg and spoon thing.” If Scott Morrison is not the “Prime Minister for NSW” he’s going about conveying this in a strange way.

    ***

    Australia, as glimpsed on the nightly news, is a country almost entirely composed of disgruntled cafe and gym owners; the doctors and nurses at the heart of our soon-to-be-overwhelmed hospitals are less a part of the public consciousness than our frustrated footballers and struggling hairdressers. We are being asked to look elsewhere, and look elsewhere we will.

    A federal election is looming. It will not be fought between an uninspiring, insipid Anthony Albanese and a negligent, morally bankrupt Scott Morrison – the Prime Minister who palmed off his constitutional responsibilities for quarantine to the states, saw the nation rollout the OECD’s slowest vaccine drive, covered up an alleged rape inside Parliament House, surfed Hawaii during the bushfires, and cynically and callously berated and abandoned Victoria during its darkest days. It will be contested between the Prime Minister that won back freedom, the economy, and prosperity, and an Opposition Leader defined almost entirely by whatever scare campaign Rupert Murdoch and his ilk deem most effective against the Labor Party.

    Remembering is all we have in the face of such an onslaught. That is why they want us to forget.

    Add to the above: No more daily pressers from plague central?

  6. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Denmark … Covid restrictions lifted with high vaccination rate …

    Covid-19: Denmark lifts all domestic restrictions, citing high vaccination rate … Jan M Olsen … Stuff New Zealand

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300404785/covid19-denmark-lifts-all-domestic-restrictions-citing-high-vaccination-rate

    After 548 days with restrictions to limit the spread of Covid-19, Denmark’s high vaccination rate has enabled the Scandinavian country to become one of the first European Union nations to lift all domestic restrictions.

    The return to normality has been gradual, but as of Friday (local time), the digital pass – a proof of having been vaccinated – is no longer required when entering nightclubs, making it the last virus safeguard to fall.

    More than 80 per cent of people above the age of 12 have had the two shots. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Bloomberg Global Covid Vaccination Tracker

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

    • 5-6 months is the base line to improved health system demands with the note that increased rates of infection in a pop logarithmic increases the rate of evolution of mutations and the risk that presents.

    • This is despite ONS #COVID19
      UK prevalence estimates of:
      2 – 11y: 1 in 50
      11 – 16y: 1 in 30″

      And wait till you see the ratios for 100K in under 5s [no immunity] for RSVs and its only September.

  7. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China … Do we adequately understand the enormity, risks and consequences of its fragile housing bubbles ? …

    Citigroup, Credit Suisse stop accepting Chinese dollar bonds/How China’s Real Estate Beast is formed … China Insights … Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXbEfbjhLTE

    The real estate company, Fantasia Group, which has the backing of China’s powerful red elite, has had its US bonds rejected as collateral by banks such as Citi.

    In the coming year, Chinese real estate companies face a wave of peak repayments on their US bonds. This time, will the long touted gray rhino of a bursting real estate bubble in China arrive?

    #China property market threat: Concerns Evergrande may default on huge debts … Al Jazeera English

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fi1lRVbKak

    China Lets Evergrande Reset Debt Terms … Bloomberg / Youtube

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=552n2F7vbS0&t=1s

    … earlier important opinion …

    … Interestingly, the Chinese Communist Party appears to have articulated the sheer destructiveness of housing inflation particularly well … extract …

    China’s ‘Volcker moment’ is a mounting risk to the global recovery … OPINION Ambrose Evans – Pritchard … UK Telegraph

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/01/chinas-volcker-moment-mounting-risk-global-recovery/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1485705&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg20210902&utm_campaign=DM1485705

    ‘… The Party has concluded that the house price spiral is triply corrosive: it is a financial black hole; it is the chief cause of cancerous inequality; and it is a strategic threat through the demographic channel. …’

Leave a reply

You must be logged in to post a comment. Log in now