Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Stock markets had divergent fortunes across Asia as the wobbles on Wall Street extended to the region today, although Japanese stocks continued their epic surge.  Risk currencies continue to pull back with the Aussie dollar still well under the 74 cent level vs USD while gold is struggling to get back above the $1800USD per ounce level. All the volatility remains in Bitcoin however with its flash crash overnight turning into more downside today, falling back to the $46K level this afternoon:

The Shanghai Composite paused its recent surge, finishing flat but still well above the 3600 point level at 3675 points while the Hang Seng Index pulled back further, down 0.3% to 26281 points. Japanese stocks remain the standout however with the Nikkei 225 finishing 0.9% higher to break above 30000 points:

Australian stocks followed Chinese bourses with the ASX200 again down 0.3% to close at just above 7500 points while the Australian dollar continues to deflate from its Friday night over-reach, now down to the 73.70 level after breaking through the 74 handle yesterday, setting up for further falls as short term support evaporates:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are down at least 0.2% going into the London open, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price hovering just above the 4500 point level, wanting to re-engage but momentum remains oversold with European stocks looking to drag risk taking back:

The economic calendar is very quiet tonight with some US consumer credit data and not much else.

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Comments

      • Jumping jack flash

        I dont get this at all. Is the new agenda to get private companies to sign up for vaccines and implementing vaccine passes before its all clear to open back up?

        Its now mandatory vaccinations? That was quick.

        So all the funk about informed choice and making your own decisions about your own health was just bunk?

        Surely these salons could hang a biohazzard sign or “unclean” banner in the window, and simply be allowed to reopen?

    • Hey bcnich if I remember correctly you were the one on here recommending Years & Years (SBS)? Just finished & Mrs C3 & I loved it – thanks for the heads up if it was you.

      • Yes I think it’s just an insight into the future
        You saw what happens or can happen when a bank collapses
        Also I think what they missed was the extent of the financial crisis, that’s the part that is understated in the series

    • The Travelling Phantom

      When I saw the earlier post today about slashed rates, I remembered when you said there will be more cutting of rates and vertical climbing of prices first before the huge shock by the end of the year

      • TP
        I said when the AUST 5 & 10 year bond yield was 1.90% 10 year we’d come down to here but I thought they’d cut rates but they really could have cut 4 & 5 year fixed rates, bond yields dropped up to 75 bp & banks didn’t really budge
        I’m not sure about those variable rates, sounds dodgy

        Very decent interest rate rises now into Xmas

        I believe we will easily see 4 % plus & property prices throughout Australia are about to roll over into falling prices
        Falls from around October onwards then much bigger falls into Xmas. I’d say pretty much say nowhere in Australia will escape the price falls
        We are at the top right now….
        Think Sydney will lead us down like think around early 2017, Melb followed 7 or 8 months later
        Melb won’t be far behind this time

        I’m meant to be retired from writing but I’m at home looking at the walls

        Just watched Mr Inbetween excellent
        White lotus, how funny is the hotel manager
        The manager is definitely a friend of Reusa

        • The Travelling Phantom

          Exactly, it’s another prediction and market analysis where you hit the nail! Well done

          • AUD had a pretty fast run up from 7150 to 7470 yesterday
            Now 7370

            Everyone thinks it’s a correction for lower
            I believe It’s getting close to a low here 73s before up through 75/76
            It’ll be a quick move then to 80c
            Think that will catch a lot out

            TP market is very short AUD & very short iron ore because of this Evangrande

            We are going to soon bounce out

            Iron will bounce strongly out of here

            I don’t believe it’s going to 60

            Up to $300……that’ll drag AUD way higher

            Everyone is caught positioned the wrong way
            Short AUD
            Short iron Ore
            And they’ve run to bonds

            Market is going to reverse

            Bonds down (int rates up)
            AUD up
            Iron ore up

            Think it could be a very violent snap back

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          Turn PBS radio on. 106.7. Playing only Sinatra. Beautiful evening for Franky and a glass of red.

          Forget the other sh!t.

          • The reverberations of supply shocks is a wild shot in the dark and we might have another 3 years of dealing with covid …. and that’s if nothing else pops up … e.g. no one will – know – till is a post examination.

          • You’re smart !!!
            I just watched part of the 911 series just out
            Farx that was heavy
            I need some Sinatra

    • NorthernNSW out of lockdown this Friday finally. Surf, babysitting grandparents , golf, Italian on the Hill Yamba. Hopefully after the Dees finish Geelong (nervous!)

      • The Travelling Phantom

        Phew! That took a while to be lifted! Congratulations 🎊 👏
        Nice to offload the kids too!
        Don’t worry about the mighty Dees 😁😁 we’ll smashed Geetroid

      • M
        18 weeks & we will be well into the crisis
        18 weeks takes us to nearly Australia Day
        Our banks would have collapsed well before then

        • The Travelling Phantom

          I don’t know how people will survive if they never calculated a risk factor and ignored the chance of things going south and thought it’s a joke that’ll never happen and always 18 months away …..

          • I just watched part of 9/11 series just out, part of 20 years since 2001
            It just makes you realise how quick things can turn from really good to really bad but we are starting at bad this time
            That’s my concern
            Bad to really really bad
            It’s going to be a huge wake up call to the world but especially Australia

            TP everyone treats this as a big joke 18 months haha
            It’s going to be no joke

  1. The Travelling Phantom

    Hey Gav how you feel after you been jabbed? I heard first AZ is the hard one!
    Also Ermo, did you get your second Pfizer? Is your wireless coverage goes further at home now?😉

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      I got knocked around a bit by first jab AZ. Typical symptoms next morning (headache, fever, lethargic ect.). Lasted a couple hours. Had taken the day off anyway. Played video game all arvo.. was a great day off!

      • The Travelling Phantom

        Is it true not recommended to take panadole or neurofen after the injection as it might affect the immune response?

    • Hard to say if I’m feeling anything. Last night was rough because I got woken up twice by a teething 1 year old screaming in pain. So I didn’t have a great night sleep. I felt a bit weird before getting the jab only because they gave me all these warnings that my age bracket is recommended Pfizer, I normally wouldn’t think much about a vaccine but of course there is a lot of fear around anything covid so although I tried to put it out of my mind, it was at the back of it a little.

      I am not sure if the back aches I am having are from sitting at my desk (WFH) all the time or the result of the jab, I feel tired now at 10:45, but that’s also because of my sleep last night. I drank plenty of water today and felt fine. Still walked the dog in the evening and up some steep hills in my area. If I didn’t know I’d have the jab I’d just think I’m a bit tired to be honest. Nothing more so unusual than other days.

      But they give you a list of potential side effects and it’s hard to know if I’m being psychosomatic or actually experiencing things. Because it was sunny in Melbourne today, my mood was positive.

      But before telling everyone to rush out and get it, I’ll wait a few days to confirm I’m not feeling anything adverse. So far though I feel things are really overblown by the media et el..

  2. A US soldier friend of mine who served in Afghanistan was telling me some stories.

    He said, ” Afghanistan is mountains. It has rich deposits of Iron ore and weapons grade uranium. ”

    Not sure if anyone knows but there is a neckline in the Top right corner of Afghanistan whereby one road is all it takes for Afghanistan to be connected to China?
    https://gyazo.com/56a79fe458215c1ba97c54b2c4eafa0a

    So ‘one road’ would connect China and Afghanistan, and China would have access to an abundance of Iron Ore and Weapons Grade Uranium to build a Nuclear Arsensal.

    One road and it doesnt need Australia anymore.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      What a coincidence!

      That will also be the time to tell the sickly to stop showing up at hospitals. There’s no room.

      • The Travelling Phantom

        Gladys will do anything to score political points…but hey I hope it’ll work out…it’ll be the mother of all shocks when they discover vaccines aren’t the sole answer

    • Jumping jack flash

      Interesting, so the “official narrative” that boosters arent required is because of the logistical nightmare of distribution rather than science.

      Not surprising because in countries that seemingly have their proverbial in order are currently recommending and distributing booster shots.

      Looks like the world is using Australia’s playbook for a change.

      So i suppose the proof of this theory will be as soon as they work out the logistics that suddenly boosters will be essential and “optionally mandatory” where informed choice and making your own decisions about your own health is welcomed and encouraged as long as your decision is to go along with the official narrative.

  3. @mike herman
    I read your FED article
    Think Goldman said in that article today
    US job market is going to pick up here next few months
    Inflation will be the problem