Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar pops and drops on Evergrande vs Fed

Japanese stocks are leading the way in the region with the stepping down of the Prime Minister, while traders overall are positioning for tonight’s all important US employment print. Risk currencies have slowed down their ascent, including gold which continues to hover above the $1800USD per ounce level, as Bitcoin tries to stabilise here after failing to decisively breakout above the $50K level, matching the previous weekly highs:

The Shanghai Composite is struggling to make headway, currnetly down 0.2% and hovering just below 3600 points while the Hang Seng Index is failing to keep afloat, currently down 0.7% as the 26000 point level turns into resistance.  Japanese stocks continued their epic breakout, with the Nikkei 225 about to finish 1.8% higher at 29097 points:

Australian stocks were able to find a little bit more support with the ASX200 about to close the week out above the 7500 point level while, the Australian dollar has paused its surge, as it tapers above the 74 handle as volume dries up before tonight’s NFP print:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are building steadily going into the London open, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to re-engage back above the 4540 point level as the BTFD crowd gets ready for the fill tonight:

The economic calendar finishes with a bang with tonights non-farm payrolls US unemployment print.

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Comments

  1. The COVID vaccines have proven we should shorten lengthy stage 3 drug trials to just a couple of months and eliminate stage 4 trials completely. Clearly they are a waste of time. Think off all the lives we’ll save, increased efficiency, lower costs.

    • Jumping jack flash

      This!
      I was talking to someone the other day about my concerns around unknown long-term effects, and mentioned that polio and measles vaccines were both in trials for almost a decade each before being approved, and their response was that “technology is so much better now”..

      Seriously.

      I suppose we dont mix stuff up in cauldrons over a fire these days, so I guess there’s that.

  2. The Travelling Phantom

    Well it’s officiall every state reach 80% vaccination will have to open teh gates and no caps on

  3. I posted this yesterday, but I only just noticed this gem. It’s the Taliban reusa! And fun ball play for JohnR!

    On Tuesday, SBS News quoted Ahmadullah Wasiq, the deputy head of the Taliban’s cultural commission, as saying that all scheduled matches for the national men’s team “will continue without interruption, and (the Afghan team) can play with other international teams”.

    “In the future, we want good relations with all countries,” he said.

    https://www.cricket.com.au/news/afghanistan-t20-test-match-hobart-blundstone-cricket-taliban-takeover-australia/2021-08-31

  4. alwaysanonMEMBER

    So I’ve got a very Rear Window-esce story. I live in an inner-Sydney Terrace and there is an old terrace across the street (from my old terrace) that has been getting fully gut-renoed. The noise of it has been pretty obnoxious lately while WFH. But today a bunch of uniformed cops were swarming it for like 1/2 the day. So I sat in the chair on my upstairs balcony working on my laptop while listening and being a bit of a sticky beak. At first I figured it was a COVID thing – and a really heavy-handed one at that. Then I heard them be preoccupied with getting a sparky to turn off the power – and one came out and did it at the meter for them. I was like “maybe the owner after he turfed out the renters forgot to put the power back in his name and the energy company is upset at the power the tradies are using illegally?”. Then I started hearing a cop talk about “the bones” on his mobile. Then they brought a body bag out into a van that appeared and they all left. So it seems that there were human remains there – maybe in a wall near power hence why they wanted it off before removing them?!?! The terrace is ~100 years old so who knows how long they have been there! I wonder if I’ll ever hear anything about it – but my day has been a write-off going through the emotional rollercoaster visible from my balcony…

  5. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    Update … China …

    China Evergrande Group is on the brink of default and it’s bad news for Australia … Andrew Backhouse … News Com Au

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/iron-ore-price-chinas-evergrande-group-is-on-the-brink-of-default-and-its-bad-news-for-australia/news-story/cd5dbe4228687fd2edcf01eee1bf0a0d

    Fraying Relations With China Are About to Hit Australian Economy … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-02/fraying-relations-with-china-are-about-to-hit-australian-economy

    Xi Jinping’s drive for economic equality comes at a delicate moment for China … Phillip Inman … The Guardrdian

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/02/xi-jinpings-drive-for-economic-equality-comes-at-a-delicate-moment-for-china

    China’s ‘Volcker moment’ is a mounting risk to the global recovery … OPINION Ambrose Evans – Pritchard … UK Telegraph
    … h/t PM …

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/01/chinas-volcker-moment-mounting-risk-global-recovery/?WT.mc_id=e_DM1485705&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_Edi_New_Reg&utmsource=email&utm_medium=Edi_Edi_New_Reg20210902&utm_campaign=DM1485705

    • Tell it to Bush Jr when the FBI informed him of all the fraud in mortgage origination …. GFC … splat …. wheeeee~~~~ heads splode ….

  6. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Richard Marles proved he could gaslight the Queensland Premier better than the LNP today. What a turd.

    Marles was educated at Geelong Grammar School and the University of Melbourne where he resided at Ormond College. He graduated with a Bachelor of Science and Bachelor of Laws with Honours. He joined the Melbourne University Labor Club in his first week at university.[2] He was also the General Secretary of the National Union of Students in 1989.

    About as Labor as Malcom Fraser.

    • C'est de la folieMEMBER

      Can I observe at this point

      I voted a couple of days prior to the last election at the AEC joint in Belmont (Geelong) and outside were Richard Marles and Sarah Henderson. They were gently accosting people in the line (festooned by party types to make sure none of the waiting punters took a swing at them).

      I havent voted ALP or LNP for a long time. I didnt for the last election.

      But to the waiting voter that day it was palpably obvious that S Henderson of the Liberal Party had far superior human interaction skills than R Marles – and indeed it appeared to me and the gent in front that Richard seemed a bit frightened of chatting with the punters.

      And could I just add for the record that – although I never voted for him – M Fraser had an earthiness to him that while not ‘friendly’ could at least come across as square, and even sympathetic and helpful on occasions. I spoke with the man and he liked talking footy (and did so knowledgably – from a Carlton supporters perspective however) was always worth a listen on fishing, and actually loved his Australian reds (and was happy to chat about them). I can also vouch for the fact that he did pull over to assist people who had broken down on the road (at least in SW Victoria). Even if you didnt like his politics and he didnt like yours (notwithstanding the fact that many younger Australians seem to think he was a socialist or something), you could actually have a beer with the guy and find something to chat about.

      I am not sure any of the latter could be said about Marles.

      • The Travelling Phantom

        Yep! Money, private school, uni degree doesn’t make a man at the end…previous attorney general good example too

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          One of those two assertions is spot on. I dare you to try and find a link to *anything* that proves the other one.

          • speak to anyone with first hand experience. hardly going to be able to find a link not totally distorted by journalism.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Yeah, well, no argument here – that was kind of my point. But HE is the one who chose politics as a career.

            Grant Denyer would have been more electable.

            Edit: and I’ve watched them both live, a lot.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Jeez. If you have to meet people before you can vote for them, soundly, then the Westminster system is flucked.

            More seriously, I will happily acknowledge:
            – in person, he’s much more engaging
            – the media screwed him completely
            – at times he was reminiscent of Hawkie
            – his union days were a lesson in how to motivate and inspire (rabbles) and few people can do that

            But despite all that he did not inspire warmth or engagement in the heart of the average Aussie voter (like Trump, or Hans0n, or Howard did). Not everyone can.

            But anyone wanting to be a LABOR PM should. Has to, if they want to get elected.

            I should be getting paid for this.
            *waves at Albo*

          • Hawke didn’t have to deal with the same media which Shorten did which Keating created in 1987 when he created a prince of print so in return he could roll Hawke. He had softball questions from Carleton (who hated Keating) to contend with.
            And when did the punters ever like Keating? They didn’t. Polls showed they couldn’t stand him.
            Shorten’s only mistake was that he didn’t attack journalists personally.
            Like when Murdoch attacked his mother, rather than tearing up he should’ve attacked the journalists.

          • But despite all that he did not inspire warmth or engagement in the heart of the average Aussie voter (like Trump, or Hans0n, or Howard did).

            I don’t think “warmth and engagement” are the words to describe the feelings any of those people “inspire”.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            Try copy and paste next time – not just typing something I didn’t write and making up your own point to contradict muppet.

          • exactly. it was just a media stitch up. Shorten does a heap of great work around his electorate none of which the media types would know about – delivered food to the towers – plus well respected in the AWU.
            his policy program and campaign in 2019 was brilliant. most genuinely Labourist leader since Calwell. People are morons..

    • he is in a safe seat in Victoria and clearly doesn’t care if Labor doesn’t hold a single seat in Queensland.Another Keatingite, like Wong, Bowen etc. shouldn’t be in the party.

  7. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Today I was doing the rounds in Newtown, one of the most diverse suburbs I’m invested in, and I saw the most farked up thing yet during this slight pandemic, and that’s saying something for Newtown. Bloke was walking along the relatively crowded street (I think it was a bloke but you never know in Newtown) dressed in shorts, a T, and thongs AND wearing a farkn gas mask. It was one of those full rubber head coverings that come down the neck. It was the most stupid thing I’ve seen both in Newtown and during these times. If I knew that bloke I’d make sure to never know him again. Weirdo.

  8. And in happier news, uranium stonks this week.
    I think that was what’s known as a rip-your-face-off rally. Holy sh1t.
    Looks like Rick Rule and Sprott have started buying physical uranium as planned.

  9. Op-Ed: On the front lines, here’s what the seven stages of severe COVID-19 look like

    BY KAREN GALLARDO

    https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-08-26/pandemic-covid-19-stages-vaccination-intensive-care-respiratory-therapist

    I’m a respiratory therapist. With the fourth wave of the pandemic in full swing, fueled by the highly contagious Delta variant, the trajectory of the patients I see, from admission to critical care, is all too familiar. When they’re vaccinated, their COVID-19 infections most likely end after Stage 1. If only that were the case for everyone.

    Get vaccinated. If you choose not to, here’s what to expect if you are hospitalized for a serious case of COVID-19.

    Stage 1. You’ve had debilitating symptoms for a few days, but now it is so hard to breathe that you come to the emergency room. Your oxygen saturation level tells us you need help, a supplemental flow of 1 to 4 liters of oxygen per minute. We admit you and start you on antivirals, steroids, anticoagulants or monoclonal antibodies. You’ll spend several days in the hospital feeling run-down, but if we can wean you off the oxygen, you’ll get discharged. You survive.

    Stage 2. It becomes harder and harder for you to breathe. “Like drowning,” many patients describe the feeling. The bronchodilator treatments we give you provide little relief. Your oxygen requirements increase significantly, from 4 liters to 15 liters to 40 liters per minute. Little things, like relieving yourself or sitting up in bed, become too difficult for you to do on your own. Your oxygen saturation rapidly declines when you move about. We transfer you to the intensive care unit.

    Stage 3. You’re exhausted from hyperventilating to satisfy your body’s demand for air. We put you on noninvasive, “positive pressure” ventilation — a big, bulky face mask that must be Velcro’d tightly around your face so the machine can efficiently push pressure into your lungs to pop them open so you get enough of the oxygen it delivers.

    Stage 4. Your breathing becomes even more labored. We can tell you’re severely fatigued. An arterial blood draw confirms that the oxygen content in your blood is critically low. We prepare to intubate you. If you’re able to and if there’s time, we will suggest that you call your loved ones. This might be the last time they’ll hear your voice.

    We connect you to a ventilator. You are sedated and paralyzed, fed through a feeding tube, hooked to a Foley catheter and a rectal tube. We turn your limp body regularly, so you don’t develop pressure ulcers — bed sores. We bathe you and keep you clean. We flip you onto your stomach to allow for better oxygenation. We will try experimental therapeutics.

    Stage 5. Some patients survive Stage 4. Unfortunately, your oxygen levels and overall condition have not improved after several days on the ventilator. Your COVID-infested lungs need assistance and time to heal, something that an ECMO machine, which bypasses your lungs and oxygenates your blood, can provide. But alas, our community hospital doesn’t have that capability.

    If you’re stable enough, you will get transferred to another hospital for that therapy. Otherwise, we’ll continue treating you as best we can. We’re understaffed and overwhelmed, but we’ll always give you the best care we can.

    Stage 6. The pressure required to open your lungs is so high that air can leak into your chest cavity, so we insert tubes to clear it out. Your kidneys fail to filter the byproducts from the drugs we continuously give you. Despite diuretics, your entire body swells from fluid retention, and you require dialysis to help with your renal function.

    The long hospital stay and your depressed immune system make you susceptible to infections. A chest X-ray shows fluid accumulating in your lung sacs. A blood clot may show up, too. We can’t prevent these complications at this point; we treat them as they present.

    If your blood pressure drops critically, we will administer vasopressors to bring it up, but your heart may stop anyway. After several rounds of CPR, we’ll get your pulse and circulation back. But soon, your family will need to make a difficult decision.

    Stage 7: After several meetings with the palliative care team, your family decides to withdraw care. We extubate you, turning off the breathing machinery. We set up a final FaceTime call with your loved ones. As we work in your room, we hear crying and loving goodbyes. We cry, too, and we hold your hand until your last natural breath.

    I’ve been at this for 17 months now. It doesn’t get easier. My pandemic stories rarely end well.

    Karen Gallardo is a respiratory therapist at Community Memorial Hospital in Ventura.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Hats off and respect to all the people, like Karen Gallardo, who have to deal with this kinda grizzly work every day.

    • Whats the cost to society and medical staff for treating anti-vaxxer’s who if they had a brain and a conscience would have only got to stage 1?

      • What compensation is China going to pay for creating the virus in one of its labs?

        Has Gladys been charged with a criminal offence under the OHS act for endangering the lives of inner-city hotel staff and limousine drivers by exposing them to highly infectious covid carriers who should have been in a real quarantine?

        What can we do about those terrible people who are reluctant to take an experimental “vaccine” which has the most severe dangers of any modern vaccine and which is less effective than any normal vaccine and is a different technology to any normal vaccine and is being pushed by every elite on the earth in a very suspicious fashion?

        Those anti-vaxxers to blame.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      “Natural” immunity sounds like a good time. Love it when them novel viral pathogens hijack cells in my cardiovascular system and beyond to replicate before lysing and destroying said cells. Get that nature up ya.

    • Stage 7: After several meetings with the palliative care team, your family decides to withdraw care. We extubate you, turning off the breathing machinery. We set up a final FaceTime call with your loved ones. As we work in your room, we hear crying and loving goodbyes. We cry, too, and we hold your hand until your last natural breath.

      This brought tears to my eyes. Having had to make a similar decision for a family member.

  10. Did Mathias get banned? I’m drinking my home brew and I think it has quite a high alcohol content.

  11. So I was annoying the neighbours today by listening to ABBA on Amazon through the Charge 4, and discovered this song. One of the last things they did, but I can hear a fair bit of dark synth pop in there, and I swear Liam G stole that little move up from the flat 7th.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_xFpjlrF38

    Also they are reforming and touring virtually.

    And before you comment reus, straight men can also enjoy ABBA. Just look at the poodle.

  12. The Travelling Phantom

    Harry, as most likely you’ll be first in the weekend links, can you please in addition to what ever great stuff you write ask about bcnich, been a while with no appearance of him…much appreciated

    • My fking ijit father tells me it’s ALL TOO HARD to drive the 500k from Carnarvon to Perth to be at the Gf where I have a ticket for him (if we make it)

      Jesus some people’s’ priorities are fubar

      • The Travelling Phantom

        :/ I get the lack of energy in the old man…but come on! It’s once in a 50 years chance…why oh God why it’s happening in a middle of pandemic 🥺🥺

          • The Travelling Phantom

            Well he doesn’t need to do it in one day!!! Drive it over 2 days and stay in a nice town halfway through! He doesn’t look after big farm with lots of cows expecting and he can’t leave them ( my relatives excuse to avoid things)

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      See, that bloke, he is a fair weather friend. But when his predictions look like failing, each time, he abandons his followers. That’s what happens with clairvoyants.

          • The Travelling Phantom

            ^^^ nah I’m expecting 13 million inheritance ( today’s value) after long life to the respected elders

          • The Travelling Phantom

            ^ my great grandfather and his wife are well living on their farm, dad and granddad doing great job looking after them…don’t think they’ve gambled ever ( except on horses maybe back in the day) regardless I wish them the longest healthiest lives

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        For a seer, it’s a defence mechanism. Forestalls the inevitable betrayal and backstabbing.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        He’s wrongly wrong on iron ore
        But going pretty good on the dorra
        He may come back out from ze doona yet

        If however there is any kind of universal consensus that the vaccines don’t work and we’re back to square one there will be a credit event of Bcnich Proportions 😯
        18 months*

      • bcnich needs to learn off people like Chris Joye (prices are going up unless they go down) and Martin North (prices are going down unless they go up).