Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Australian dollar pops and drops on Evergrande vs Fed

A relatively strong response on stock markets across Asia today as risk comes back to start a new month following some mixed economic prints overnight. The USD is bouncing back slightly although the Australian dollar surged on the latest GDP print and gold remains very strong here above the $1800USD per ounce level with the four hourly chart showing price bunching up here ready to start another breakout above the $1820USD level:

The Shanghai Composite is up 0.7% to advance on its breakout above the 3500 point level, about to close at 3569 points while the Hang Seng Index lifted through the 26000 point level, rising 0.6% to finish at 26004 points. Japanese stocks again did even better, with the Nikkei 225 finishing 1.2% higher to close at 28451 points, turning its swing long play into a proper breakout:

Australian stocks were the odd ones out on the GDP print with the ASX200 stalling again, closing 0.1% lower to remain slightly above the 7500 point level. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has surged again to advance well above the 73 handle, making a new intrasession high for the week:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are lifting going into the London open, with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price wanting to re-engage back above the 4530 point level as short term momentum remains nicely overbought and ready to springboard ever higher:

The economic calendar continues with German retail sales and US ISM/Markit manufacturing PMI prints.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


    • I’m sure the freedom fighters who think wearing a mask is a violation of their rights will be organising protests as we read !

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        Deservably so but how will this work in reality. Will they rock up to the Sydney Googleplexy thing and demand access to his YouTuby thing? Can head office, who aren’t bound by silly foreign laws, just say fark off?

      • Yeah. I never thought of that Jason. Your absolutely right.

        They’ll use the surveillance technology to take down Friendly Jordies.

        Australias Military will become the lapdog for Political Agendas. Very soon, you’ll be under arrest if you dont vote Liberal.

        Democracy was ‘For the People, By the People’. It isnt anymore. Now both Liberal and Labor are conspiring against the people in an attempt to protect there own bank accounts.

        There’s no way Australias not going to collapse because of all this stupidity.

        One of my biggest gripes with Australia is how NSW has practically hijacked the entire nation, ignored the rest of the states and pretending it has an entitled right to all the wealth of this nation. I get that they are an important state but they dont get the right to embezzle Australias Wealth which is practically what NSW is doing.

        Now they are using military power to ensure there embezzlement operation succeeds… so that the rest of Australian States get completely shut down and pushed into irrelevancy.

        They cant manage a state so how the hell will they manage a Nation?

    • Yeah. Im really unhappy about this surveillance stuff.

      First they want to jack house prices up on us and now they are using military force surveillance to make sure we suck it up.

      How in any right mind, can these idiots think Australias going to end well into the future when we are migrating our own people away, killing off Australians and enforcing surveillance to make sure it all happens?

      Its an attack upon Australians… and Australians should be retaliating against this crap.

      • We have very limited mechanisms against the status quo; and what we do try and implement, the powers that be poison the well, and our fellow Australians then vote away beneficial reforms, in order to maintain their short-term rights to unearned income.

  1. Hugh PavletichMEMBER

    China …

    Evergrande’s Total Liabilities Swell to Over $300 Billion … Bloomberg

    On the face of it, China Evergrande Group made progress cutting its debt load in the first half of the year. On closer examination, paying its dues got even harder.

    Evergrande’s total liabilities including bills owed to suppliers rose to 1.97 trillion yuan ($305 billion) as of June 30, near a record high, results showed Tuesday. While its borrowings shrank to 572 billion yuan, the group’s cash and cash equivalents plunged to a six-year low.

    The upshot: Evergrande will need to accelerate asset sales and continue to aggressively discount apartment prices to generate enough cash to meet its obligations. The world’s most indebted developer is all too aware of what’s at stake, saying it risks defaulting on borrowings if its all-out effort falls short. … read more via hyperlink above …

    China’s economic recovery continues to stall as factory activity contracts for first time since April 2020 … SCMP

    Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI Press Release – 2021.08

    Iron ore limit down as another China PMI tanks … David Llewellyn – Smith … MacroBusiness Australia

  2. Given the vaccinated are as infectious as the unvaccinated there is only one question for the vaccinated now.

    How are you going to look an unvaccinated child in the eye?

    • My understanding is that vaccinated people who contract the virus have a lower viral load so are not as infectious, at least for 6 months following the second jab.

      • That has been disproven. Very little difference in the infectiousness of vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

        What you’re saying though is that it’s wrong to smoke with children in the car, but it’s okay if they are menthols.

        • That analogy is just stupid. And if you’re vaccinated you’re less likely to actually get covid.

          • If you’re vaccinated you’re more likely to be in a pub or restaurant superspreading or becoming infected with disease and filth. It’s a numbers game.

            Pfizer only 40% efficacy in the real world and that drops rapidly without frequent doses throughout the year.

            Like I said, how can you look an unvaccinated child in the eye if you plan on going to pubs and restaurants when we finally ‘let it rip’.

          • “If you’re vaccinated you’re more likely to be in a pub or restaurant superspreading or becoming infected with disease and filth.”

            Why’s that?

          • People have to assess the risk of the vaccines and any potential long term effects. I don’t care if they take them. But it doesn’t give someone the right to become a superspreader infecting unvaccinated children if they are vaccinated.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      This seems a very familiar question. Did this come up earlier when you were last discussing your bail-release conditions?

  3. What is worse?

    Smoking with a child in the car or going to brunch surrounded by vaccinated but diseased superspreaders and then taking it home and giving it to the children.

    I can’t think of anything more irresponsible.

    • That article should be called, There’s Bad News. No one tapped the nsw premier a few months back to say, hey Gladyz, this is what can come of this. We have a parliament moronic nut cases.

      The article gave me the impression that, there will be heard immunity, with a reduced heard. Delta is bad news that can get much worse.

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      Great summary of fat tail risks Skippy. Thanks for posting it.

      Worth the time to read it.

    • I love this. It’s been making the rounds on every whatsapp group I am in as well.

      I call it “welcome to afgladystan”!

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        I hear the overseas meeting-support-centres that draw the backgrounds live for Zoom are really worried about this turn of events.

      • You can say that about at least 50% of the shops in Westfield!

        I’ve got kids and I struggle to understand smiggle.
        Who is going to T2? Obviously pre pandemic enough folks to support a network of 40 stores!

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      “To be clear, this result has been a direct consequence of the pandemic and the unprecedented, devastating financial consequences of past and current store lockdowns, and the prospect and risk of extended closures with no clear end in sight”

      Lockdowns are evil and must stop NOW! If not everything will be destroyed just because of chicken sh1ts.

  4. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    I have a been made aware of a disturbing concept this evening – if anyone within the Department of Home Affairs or Human Services, or somewhere in the Public Sector may be able to help me out.

    I have spoken with two people (one called me and I called another) this evening relating to those people being allowed to arrive in Australia on 482 (skills shortage) 408 (Religious work) and 485 (graduate) visas.

    The first person I spoke to when they called me looking to potentially get something into the public domain about the numbers of these people who have arrived in Australia within the last 6 months – yes while there are more than 30 thousand Australians trapped offshore – who have a strong connection with a ‘church’ in Australia – they are either ‘employed’ by the church, or they have ‘skills’ for which there is a shortage of Australians, who are immediately claiming Covid payments out of Human services, and regularly making the claims for payment while they are still in quarantine.

    I speak not of the Uniting or Catholic, or even mainstream Islamic or Jewish churches – but people who have connection with the Charismatic and Evangelical Christian churches.

    What I was told was that there are significant numbers of such people coming into Australia from developing world nations – including India and Nepal, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam – who have this connection. I was told that apparently a significant issue for many of the people processing support payments from the Human Services end (and handling queries by phone) is that these people have an issue with weak English (which I must confess immediately triggered the question from me of ‘well how are they helping religions if they cant speak the lingo?’). I was told that the clear management line inside Human Services is one of ‘They have been granted the visa and we don’t question that – just process the payments’ along with ‘nobody is to talk about the subject – and there is no issue with the numbers of people coming in on religious related visas’ .

    My understanding is that the people processing some of these payments think that there have been about a thousand – this year – and that the phenomena has become (despite management and its stand on the matter) something of a talking point for many of these (I had it related to me that quite a few of the people handling the claims for payment are either visa holders themselves – Human services is experiencing serious issues getting enough people to process Covid support payment claims and consequently are taking what they can get – or recent citizens, who are saying ‘how can this be happening?’)

    The next person I spoke with said that there was definitely an issue with this type of visa and the persons applying for and being granted these visas. There was a widespread belief these people were paying money to the religions and religious organisations involved. Many of these visas involve rights to bring an entire family to Australia. I had one instance related to me where an individual asked about the visa they were travelling on mentioned that they had paid $26 thousand for a family of four.

    Is anyone out there aware of any statistics anywhere which would identify the specific visa type numbers and the sponsoring organisations, or employing type organisations, and from there the numbers of such visa holders arriving in Australia this year to subsequently claim Covid relief payments?

    Is anyone out there aware of the issue, or like issues?

    • Hudson plays that too personally against Soros. Xi is not as against rentseeking as Hudson claims. I think Pettis is the best outside/insider view of China and its reforms. His twitter is an ongoing commentary on the attempts being made to deal with the property bubble, the shadow lending market, and general control of the Chinese economy. The picture he has been painting over the past few years does not match what Hudson has said in the link. As much as I love Hudson’s body of work I think his emotions got the better of him with that one.