Inside Victoria’s COVID explosion

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As reported earlier, Victoria today recorded a whopping 1438 new locally acquired COVID cases – an increase of nearly 500 from the prior day and easily surpassing NSW:

VIC vs NSW COVID cases

The boys at COVIDBaseAU have done a terrific job deconstructing the data, which shows that LGAs in Melbourne’s North and West continue to drive the cases (I live in Boroondara, which has only 53 cases):

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The next chart plots the Reff across LGAs, where a Reff > 1 means cases will rise. Victoria’s total Reff is 1.37:

The next chart plots the cases and Reff by region:

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The share of cases in past 14 days are as follows:

  • Regional VIC: 2.60%
  • Outer West: 16.28%
  • Outer North: 44.29%
  • Inner North: 14.06%
  • Inner South East: 2.82%
  • Outer East: 2.59%
  • Inner East: 4.42%
  • Inner West: 3.26%
  • Melbourne City: 1.94%
  • Outer South East: 7.74%
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Finally, 2.2% of the tests reported in Victoria over the past 24 hours returned a positive result – a pandemic high:

The next chart from Mark The Graph also shows that Victoria’s test positivity rate is also way higher than NSW was at its virus peak:

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If you are interested in this type of data, I recommend following COVIDBaseAU on Twitter.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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