The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for July 2021, which suggests net migration into Australia moved back into negative.
There were a net 3,130 permanent & long-term departures in July, which followed June’s 2,540 net arrivals.
Still, over the July quarter, there were 2,890 net permanent & long-term arrivals:
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Since the pandemic began in March 2020, there have been 20,400 net permanent & long-term departures, representing the first time that net arrivals have been negative since the series commenced in 1976:
The monthly net permanent & long-term arrivals data is strongly correlated with the official net overseas migration (NOM) data published later by the ABS, which is only current to December 2020. The next chart plots these two series together, which suggests annual NOM will soon bottom-out:
The federal budget projected negative NOM of -96,600 in 2020-21 and -77,400 in 2021-22:
These projections look overly pessimistic based on this data.