Goldman: US jobs to miss

Goldman with the note:

  • We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 500k in August, below consensus of +725k. While the seasonal hurdle is relatively low in August, the monthly pace and cross-section of Big Data employment indicators are consistent with a sizeable drag from the Delta variant. On the positive side, we expect the reopening of schools to boost job growth by around 150k in tomorrow’s report.
  • We estimate a two-tenths drop in the unemployment rate to 5.2%—in line with consensus—reflecting a firm household employment gain and a stable participation rate. We estimate a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings (mom sa,and +3.9% yoy), reflecting some continued wage pressures but negative calendar effects (consensus is +0.3% and +4.0%).
  • While we expect a nonfarm payroll miss relative to consensus, we believe a slowdown of this magnitude would still be consistent with a November taper announcement from the Fed, barring other large downside surprises.
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