See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:
Credit Suisse making some goods points on the shortness of the market for the Australian dollar:
AUD,NZD,CAD–AUD is too low on crosses in my view–whether that is [email protected] being prone to a recovery in energy prices/reflation trade, the notion of a retail sales beat tonight domestically, or the market’s short and well-in-the-money AUDNZD trade that will snap-back fast when the wind turns–ideally within the next week. For AUDUSD I think 0.7300/25 marks the band through which the market turns from rally-selling to covering.
We can expect volatility with any market that is this short:
Within the energy crisis, coal is the key input to the terms of trade that influences the currency. Gas and oil more or less offset one another.