Morgan Stanley with the note:
As Congress reconvenes, we expect progress to our base case of more fiscal expansion and identify key risks to our view. Recent news on spending plans offer hints on bill structure. We adjust our deficit growth estimates to~$1tr over five years and~$1.5tr over 10, but as low ramp in year 1.
Our base case has been and remains that Congress will approve a sizeable fiscal expansion. In particular, we see multi-trillion dollar increase in federal spending for the next 10 years, which will only be partially offset by tax increases thus leading to a substantial fiscal expansion.
