NSW records another 207 COVID cases

NSW Health has recorded another 207 locally acquired COVID cases over the past 24 hours, which follows the 210 cases reported on Saturday and the 239 cases recorded on Sunday:

Of these locally acquired cases, 105 are linked to a known case or cluster, 92 are household contacts & 13 are close contacts, the source of infection for 102 cases is under investigation.

Eighty-nine cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 21 cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Fifty-one cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 46 cases remains under investigation.

A 91 year old man has also died from COVID, taking total deaths this outbreak to 15.

There are currently 232 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 54 people in intensive care, 25 of whom require ventilation.

The next chart plots NSW’s current outbreak against Victoria’s winter-spring outbreak last year, which saw Melbourne shut down for 14 consecutive weeks:

New COVID cases

Australia’s two biggest COVID outbreaks.

If NSW was to follow Victoria’s trajectory, cases would not peak for another week.

NSW now has around 3,000 active recorded COVID cases:

Active COVID cases

Yet to peak.

At this rate, NSW’s lockdown will likely extend into September.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

    • They won’t (can’t) do that – purely for political reasons – although I don’t know why they just don’t bite the bullet. It won’t effect their leadership in NSW at least (federally, it’ll hurt). Does anyone know who the current Labor leader is in NSW?

    • DodgydamoMEMBER

      Gladys doesn’t look like she believes they can get it under control at all…. constantly talking about vaccinating their way out of lockdown, not successfully locking down. NSW is screwed, knee jerk lockdown ongoing til Xmas 🎄

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      Numbers are going up still – doubling every couple of weeks and there seem to be no change to the settings. So how can anyone predict a finish date? The only finish date we can predict, with no change in settings, is the one where we are 70%-80% vaccinated – roughly xmas.

      Using the current setting and projections, we will be getting roughly 6400 cases a day by October 8th (doubling every 2 weeks). Which means 500+ hospitalizations and 5 deaths a day.

      • Given they’re currently averaging one death a day from around 200 cases per day, to predict only five deaths per day from more than 6000 cases per day is very optimistic, if it gets anywhere near the 6000 cases per day.

      • 82,000 got the jab on Saturday and the rate is likely to top 100,000 per day now the pharmacies and pop up clinics are jabbing walk ins with AZ.

        That COVID website was hopeless for getting people jabbed.

        1.2 million already fully vaxed in NSW with another couple of million on the way.

        Sure the jabbed can still get infected and can still infect but it the vax will slow down Delta a bit and that might be the best we can hope for until more of those young “moving around” workers are jabbed.

        It would helpful if there was more Pfizer but the other states are unwilling to assist and Scott is too weak to insist and send the vax fire engines to an actual fire.

        • TheLambKingMEMBER

          But that is still over 100 days away to do 4mil people with 2 doses. Add some lag due to spacing and a couple of weeks for vaccines to build antibodies and you are getting to about 145 days – magically, there are only 145 until Xmas! (See what you can do with mathematical models and choosing your own assumptions and variables 🙂 )

          I think Dan pinned everything on getting Melbourne to a ‘normal’ Xmas and summer holiday last year. Lets see if GladyScoMo can get Sydney there! I did get a lot of schadenfreude with this Sydney outbreak. But as someone who home schooled grade 2 & 4 kids I think you have had enough! Victorians just can’t understand why Gladys is not following Dan’s Lockdown Plan – it has worked 3 times in Victoria now and twice in SA.

          • Yep, unfathomable.

            LVO: “If NSW was to follow Victoria’s trajectory, cases would not peak for another week.”

            NOTE: If NSW had followed VIC’s example it would NOT be in this mess. Period.

            Loved that PK put it straight to Frydenburg the other night – something along the lines of “You described Victoria’s lockdown in 2020 as the worst policy failure of any government at any time, would you now say that about NSW?”

            Won’t see an apology coming anytime soon from any of those right wing sods who will play politics with their last breath.

        • ” the other states are unwilling to assist”

          Can’t really blame them when you watch that clip of Gladys sneering at VIC and refusing it vaccines last year; but also the other states can’t really afford to let NSW have their vaccines as it’s quite likely the virus will spread around the country the way Gladys is going. Imagine the backlash if the other states had given away their vaccines, only to find their need is as great in a month or two.

      • You don’t read about all the people who drove somewhere in a car and got there safely. It’s always about the ones that crashed.

  1. So, hospital admission figures can really be bed occupancy numbers, this matters because covid hospital stays are shorter……UK figures

    https://twitter.com/cfinnecy/status/1421406905470263297

    This makes it look better than it is at the moment, but is this due to virus virulence drop, better doctoring and nursing, or the vaccines or patient demographics ? Hopefully they can find out.

    Better not get away in Brisbane because too many people here have faked their way through this so far and are still convinced they can carry on like last year………Delta is not Alpha

  2. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    The makers of the children’s television show Peppa Pig are clearly trying to propagandize our young people with this anti lock down anti vaxxer message.
    Telling kids to riot in the streets!

    https://youtu.be/boGdPL1EHlY

    • Citizens is an oxymoron in libertarian market society terminology … the correct nomenclature is Homo Economicus Consumer Rational Agent Maximizer ….

      You now have to wear a bell on your shoe for a month to remind you of the sacred terms whilst simultaneously informing your peers of your socialist backsliding ….

  3. Speaking with a mate whose a bit more quantitative than I am, he reckons with the reproduction rate of the delta variant as high as chickenpox, you need to have about 95% of the population having antibodies before you reach herd immunity.

    In the UK, the adult population showing around 92% having antibodies with 70% of the population vaccinated and a whole lot more having been exposed to the disease, and even there you’re getting a significant lift in cases.

    In Australia, where natural exposure is almost zero, it’s an absolute pipe dream to think they can open up with a vaccination rate of 50%… if they attempt to, without first crushing cases back to zero, you’re just gonna yo-yo through lockdowns.

    • Perhaps but the biggest issue is likely to be the anti-COVID vaccine folk of which there are quite a few.

      As long as everyone has had a reasonably opportunity to access vaccine, that should be the point where we start relaxing restrictions (though the last restrictions will be those on international travel).

      It is likely that as they start to relax aspects of the domestic lockdowns, outbreaks amongst the unvaccinated will drive more people off the fence and if we don’t have any local transmissions some controlled releases from HQ will do the job.

      The important thing is to give the anti-vax folk the chance to catch COVID and prove that it does not hurt and we cannot do that while we are in lockdown.

      • Controlled releases from HQ? Honey and musk traps should do the trick. Reusa could do both.
        “give the anti-vax folk the chance to catch COVID and prove that it does not hurt”. Prove what doesn’t hurt? Covid, the vax or both?

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        In the UK currently 65% of all Covid Delta deaths are in vaccinated people. The unvaccinated are mostly the young and healthy, and are relatively unaffected by Covid, but its still the elderly/obese/those with co-morbidities that will pay the price, as the vaccine won’t save them. Sure less of them are currently dying, but which of you is prepared to bet your life that you won’t be one of the unlucky “vaccinated but still dead” ones?

        • “..In the UK currently 65% of all Covid Delta deaths are in vaccinated people..”

          And how many people are we talking about?

          https://theconversation.com/most-covid-deaths-in-england-now-are-in-the-vaccinated-heres-why-that-shouldnt-alarm-you-163671

          “..The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. ..”

          What would the denominator have been had most of the elderly not been vaccinated?

          • kiwikarynMEMBER

            As I said “there may be less of them …” and that number is currently 460 deaths (as of 19 July) of which only 165 were unvaccinated. It doesnt matter how you “explain” away the statistic, my point still stands, vaccinated people will die, and you may be one of them. Do you feel lucky? Vaccinated or not vaccinated, its still Russian Roulette. All thats changed is your odds have slightly shifted.

          • ….and 1 dose of the vaccine only provides 33% protection as opposed to 92-94% when fully vaccinated, so it would be interesting to know how many back then had had both jabs.

          • kiwikarynMEMBER

            That data is available. Of the 460 deaths, 5 were less than 21 days post first vaccination, 60 were more than 21 days post first vaccination, and 224 had been fully vaccinated. (the status of 6 were unknown).

      • The current batch of so-called vaccines are proving to be rather pathetic at protecting people from:
        * Catching COVID
        * Spreading COVID
        * Dying from COVID

        Perhaps it would be a good idea to accelerate the development of a truly effectine (and safe) vaccine.

        What am I missing here?

        • What your missing is the 95% reduction in death rates
          ~200 partially vaccinated have died from the new Delta strain that has twice the mortality as the alpha strain.
          That alpha strain killed 40k in the first wave and 85K in the second.
          The best immunity actually comes from being vaccinated to prevent severe illness, then being exposed to the real virus.

    • Current number is 70 evidently, though that could shift depending on how things play out o/s

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      IJN Akagi (赤城, which means crimson castle) was both a battleship AND an aircraft carrier. It was originally a battlecruiser, then converted into an aircraft carrier because of the Washington Treaty which puts a limit on the number of battlecruiser Japan can have.

      • Technically never an actual battlecruiser – they just used the hull.

        “Though she was laid down as an Amagi-class battlecruiser, Akagi was converted to an aircraft carrier while still under construction to comply with the terms of the Washington Naval Treaty.”

      • The Walter Lippmann press is not concerned with rigorous terminology … limits the Bernays PR marketing narrative crafting ….

      • reusachtigeMEMBER

        Oh that is good. Very good! Reminds me of many of the chicken sh1ts on here. LOLOLOL!

      • 20 Things I’ve Learned (Or Had Confirmed) About Humanity During The ‘Pandemic’

        1/ Most people would rather be in the majority, than be right

        2/ At least 20% of the population has strong authoritarian tendencies, which will emerge under the right conditions.

        3/ Fear of death is only rivalled by the fear of social disapproval. The latter could be stronger.

        4/ Propaganda is just as effective in the modern day as it was 100 years ago. Access to limitless information has not made the average person any wiser.

        5/ Anything and everything can and will be politicised by the media, government, and those who trust them.

        6/ Many politicians and large corporations will gladly sacrifice human lives if it is conducive to their political and financial aspirations.

        7/ Most people believe the government acts in the best interests of the people. Even many who are vocal critics of the government.

        8/ Once they have made up their mind, most people would rather to commit to being wrong, than admit they were wrong.

        9/ Humans can be trained and conditioned quickly and relatively easily to significantly alter their behaviours – for better or worse.

        10/ When sufficiently frightened, most people will not only accept authoritarianism, but demand it.

        11/ People who are dismissed as ‘conspiracy theorists’ are often well researched and simply ahead of the mainstream narrative.

        12/ Most people value safety and security more than freedom and liberty, even if said ‘safety’ is merely an illusion.

        13/ Hedonic adaptation occurs in both directions, and once inertia sets in, it is difficult to get people back to ‘normal’.

        14/ A significant % of people thoroughly enjoy being subjugated.

        15/ ‘The Science’ has evolved into a secular pseudo-religion for millions of people in the West. This religion has little to do with science itself.

        16/ Most people care more about looking like they are doing the right thing, rather than actually doing the right thing.

        17/ Politics, the media, science, and the healthcare industries are all corrupt, to varying degrees. Scientists and doctors can be bought as easily as politicians.

        18/ If you make people comfortable enough, they will not revolt. You can keep millions docile as you strip their rights, by giving them money, food, and entertainment.

        19/ Modern people are overly complacent and lack vigilance when it comes to defending their own freedoms from government overreach.

        20/ It’s easier to fool a person than to convince them that they have been fooled.

        21/ Most people are fairly compassionate and have good intentions (this is good)

        As a result, most people deeply struggle to understand that some people, including our ‘leaders’, CAN have malicious or perverse intentions (this is bad).

        Source:
        https://twitter.com/ZubyMusic/status/1412012537986568193

    • Matthew Lesh is the Head of Research at the Adam Smith Institute (London) and an Adjunct Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs.

      Figures.

      • Let’s see how well they’re ‘living with it’ in three to four months from now.

        I suspect there’ll be less appetite for ‘living with it’ when it’s racking up the body count again.

        • kiwikarynMEMBER

          I suspect you are right. Singapore was also supposed to be “living with it” and they have also promptly backtracked. As have Israel and now Biden is talking about going back into lockdown. None of them have the guts to just “live with it” as they know its political suicide, especially the politicians on the Left.

  4. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-02/queensland-coronavirus-new-cases-update-lockdown-brisbane-school/100341828

    Some overpaid, underworked latte swilling piece of cr#p cannot grasp that even in a lockdown, the effect of year on year mass immigration which she undoubtedly thought was all fine and woke, is going to result in tons of essential workers out in circulation.

    There are far too many cars out on the road when I drove in this morning.

    Go and get F####################d

  5. Yawn! Case Fatality Rates and hospitalisations are the only metrics that matter, the obsession with numbers of infected is intended only to incite fear (and it’s quite successful). I thought you guys were supposed to be good with numbers.