Melbourne’s auction market hit hard by lockdown

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Melbourne’s auction market is beginning to feel the lockdown pinch, whereas Sydney’s is holding up well.

As shown in the next table, the national final auction clearance rate was 70.0% last weekend, down significantly from 74.0% the prior weekend off 1,822 auctions (versus to 1,606 the prior weekend).

The weaker result was driven by Melbourne whose final clearance rate tanked to 59.9%, down from 69.1% the prior weekend. This was off a higher number of auctions: 884 versus 662 last weekend.

By contrast, Sydney’s auction market remains strong. It recorded a final auction clearance rate of 81.3%, up from 77.6% the prior weekend. This was off a similar volume of auctions – 551 this weekend versus 564 the prior weekend.

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Smaller capital auction markets were generally solid to strong with the exception of Perth.

Auction clearances

Sydney strong, Melbourne weak.

The national auction clearance rate has obviously still retraced sharply from March’s peak, but remains at a high level from a historical perspective:

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National auction clearance rate

Down from peak, but still strong.

Based on historical correlations, Melbourne’s auction market is point to much slower price growth:

Melbourne auctions

Melbourne dwelling prices to soften.

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It is a similar story for Sydney; albeit less negative:

Sydney auctions

Sydney dwelling values will also soften.

This weekend there are e 2,106 auctions scheduled to take place across the capital cities, a slight increase on last week’s scheduled volumes:

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Upcoming auctions

Upcoming auctions.

These are strong volumes given the lockdowns.

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.