- The consensus view is that Australia’s economic rebound will be swift once lockdowns ease.
- But there is good reason to believe that recovery will be patchy this time around given we won’t eliminate the virus.
- More policy stimulus will be required.
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Damien Klassen is Head of Investments at the MacroBusiness Fund, which is powered by Nucleus Wealth.
The information on this blog contains general information and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Nucleus Wealth Management is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Nucleus Advice Pty Ltd – AFSL 515796.
- MB Fund Podcast: Stagflation! - October 15, 2021
- MB Fund Podcast: Why are Australian Banks so profitable? w/ Matthew Johnson - October 7, 2021
- MB Fund Podcast: The New (Economic) Chinese Contagion - October 1, 2021
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MB Fund: August 2021 performance
August was another strong month for the stock
Like most observers, you’re far too sanguine about the UK experience. At current rates, around a million Brits are catching this thing every month. Sure, at the moment both hospitalisation and death figures are lower than in previous waves. However, hospitalisations are running at almost as high a rate in Israel as was the case earlier this year, so the UK’s apparently strong performance is simply a vaccination timing issue – which may well reverse heading into the northern winter. Second, the hit to the economy from a million infections a month – days lost to self-isolation plus the effects of long covid – are non-trivial. If the UK does indeed offer a glimpse of the future, it’s nowhere near as positive as many observers want to make it appear.
MB has got the virus wrong from the start.
UK will be at 1500 deaths per day in winter without restrictions — which will be coming back.
It’s a complete debacle.
We’ll see. I’ll save this receipt and we can revisit the issue.
It either gets to 1500 per day at New Year’s or they wimp out and reverse course with their whole Freedom Day.
I think they wimp out and bring back the restrictions.
It’s just logic. It’s a seasonal virus.
Their hospitals are close to breaking point in August with long days and plenty of sunshine.
It doesn’t take an epidemiologist (who have been WRONG throughout this entire pandemic with their failed predictions may I add) to work out what happens at the peak of the COVID/Flu season in January.
It’s reasonably likely that once you’ve had it once, you’re partially immune to future strains.
Moreso than with a vaccine because the body doesn’t necessarily target the spike.
SARS victims who have been vaccinated show a VERY strong immunity to SARS2.0
The mindsets of people in countries that have been through covid wave after wave is totally different. People just want to push on. Lockdowns are unlikely. Australia’s lockdown psychology is almost exactly a year behind the north term hemisphere. You’re already seeing just the beginning of the change. I just got back from Florida. I can guarantee they’d rather have people dying in the streets than lock down. I met people who had covid twice. Also, due to infection and vaccine derived immunity every successive wave will be less severe. That’s generally how pandemics work. I’m beginning to think that every country will just have to do the time. Vaccinate as much as you can and push forward with opening up while each wave becomes less severe. There seems no other path to the other side. Therapies are also improving and saving lives of those that do get sick.
Most US states will wimp out come New Year’s.
COVID is supposed to be nothing this time of year in the US it’s August for crying out loud lol!
I wouldn’t be too worried either.
It’s going to be a sh1tshow come January though.
Freedom day spruiking Johnson talks a big game, but is a weak willed, spineless, attention seeking whore who twists in the breeze.
He’s effectively just the English PM too and has very little say in what the uppity Scots and Welsh do.
Agree with SoCal on this one. When the choice for the brits comes down to going to the pub with your mates and risk getting sick or sit at home locked down and still potentially get sick, the pub sounds bloody appealing.
Or you could go for a walk or have a drink in a park.
Getting seriously ill or dying because you needed to get drunk at whetherspoons sounds up there with the stupidest ways to go lol
Immediate gratification vs delayed consequence. Human psychology generally picks the former. Its why the majority of Australians are fat and people get drunk all the time – it feels GOOOOOD at the time. Even those who can weigh up the consequences, a portion of them will see the tradeoff as being worth it. We all have different risk thresholds and its not like we are trying to summit Everest with a 30-50% death rate. We are talking about a disease with a 0.19% death rate (99.8% survival rate) on a population basis.
Gareth, not in Australia.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
3% dead so far.
That’s CFR. IFR is established as about 0.2%.
Crikey Leith, you were all in on “Gladys Gold Standard”. You guys also said on a podcast last year it would be over in 12 months, and that the virus would become less dangerous in a short timeframe.
It’s pretty obvious there’s not much deep microbiology in the MB offices. And nobody expects it.
It’s a complex set of variables in a disease that has more hosts to mutate in, than any virus in human history. All we can say is there are a huge number of possible outcomes. Some could favor humans, and some may not.
Nobody can call it.
The virus will keep virusing. That is all anyone can really say at the moment.
“It’s a complex set of variables in a disease that has more hosts to mutate in, than any virus in human history.”
That just doesn’t make sense. How does this virus have more hosts than any other?
Is it because its a new virus so its only getting started on its mutation journey? I remember reading an article a while back that supposedly debunked the China-made theory due to the low rate of mutations. If it was a new virus it would be mutating faster or something like that.
@JJF yep, I should have said, “than any novel virus in human history.”
Previous pandemics were relatively slow moving, with far fewer simultaneous infections.
It’s currently tracking at 0.2% in this current wave though ?.
Assume the 3% figure has been bumped up by all those deaths in Aged Care homes about 12 months ago ?.
Possibly why hospitalisation rate was running at 9% of active cases too.
Personal view only is that measuring deaths to cases is misleading. We are not catching all cases but we are catching all deaths, thus the ratio is never truly accurate. The only way to measure deaths in my view is on a population basis. In Australia today the death to pop ratio is 0.0038%. The 0.19% mentioned above was for the UK which has had a bad run of it.
Probably only becomes relevant as a stat once it has fully ripped across Australia though ?.