Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stocks markets are having another mixed session as we head into the end of the trading week, not helped by Chinese stocks resuming their tech selloff, local shares recoiling from yet another lockdown while Wall Street wobbles on another Fed hawks comments. The volatility in currency markets is subsiding a little from last nights economic prints and could spark up again tonight with the BOE meeting, meanwhile Bitcoin is rolling over after breakingout last night following a nascent bullish falling wedge pattern but momentum is already waning as it resists the $40K level:

The Shanghai Composite is fading going into the close, down 0.4% to 3465 points while the Hang Seng Index is returning to the sell-phase, down 0.7% to 26240 points. Meanwhile Japanese stocks are rebounding on the weaker Yen, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.5% higher at 27728 points. The USDJPY pair has continued to lift higher after last night’s volatility with a push up towards the 109.70 level, getting back to the start of week position:

Australian stocks are putting in a scratch session absorbing the latest trade balance and possible new Victorian lockdown news with the ASX200 lifting only 0.1% to close at 7511 points.  Meanwhile the Australian dollar is trying to dust itself off after getting smacked down below the 74 handle, lifting back there but not quite going into the London open although momentum remains nicely elevated:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures however are quite flat going into tonight’s session with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price again unable to push substantially through the 4400 point level as it still fails to get out of the continuation from last week’s sideways dance:

The economic calendar continues with a big one to watch out for tonight – the BOE latest interest rate meeting, followed up by the US trade balance and weekly initial jobless numbers.

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Comments

  1. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Brian Houston conveniently in Mexico eh?

    Well it’s no Hawaii, but it’s still nice this time of year.

  2. As Mises explained in his essay “Inflation: An Unworkable Fiscal Policy”:

    “Inflation, as this term was always used everywhere and especially in this country, means increasing the quantity of money and bank notes in circulation and the quantity of bank deposits subject to check.

    Everyone needs to see this graph.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL

    Money is about to end – digital currencies will be instated.

    • QTM was refuted soundly back in rayguns and margaritas day … it has no fundamental underpinnings.

      • Yes the fed might be running a confidence game

        Still truth doesn’t seem to matter in 2021 clown world

        Rona being a prime example

      • House prices are rising at $1500.00/day in almost all anglo / western democracies.

        People think Chinas actions are somehow “anti” capitalist, or anti American – they are purely self preservation.

        This isn’t going to end in a correction any more – its going to end in flames – like America last year.

        Id pass a CDC approved rent moratorium and then vacate to the Hamptons too – permanently, with a machine gun.

    • Jumping jack flash

      Inflation is our last bastion of hope. It became that way as soon as interest rates hit zero all around the world.

      QE is just a sideshow so rates dont rise. If it wasnt for QE we’d be in a bad way. NIRP seems to be forgotten. QE pretty much achieves the same effect anyway, and its easier for the banks to swallow.

        • Jumping jack flash

          NO! House price inflation is not useful inflation for the wider economy. We have had 15 years, possibly more of house price inflation and everything is still broken.

          The inflation they want and need in the services economy of today is consumer price inflation. This is what they’re trying to do now with trillions of stimulus dollars for spending. Whether it works as planned remains to be seen.

          Services and retail of imported goods just needs prices to go up to increase revenue which will (hopefully) feed back into wages, and grow the economy. That’s what has been missing for a decade.

    • One just needs to glance at the menu board to see their extreme concern for the health of the people of Australia.

      • Haha, if I wanted the opinion of the man who invented the whopper I’d rattle a bucket of $2 coins.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      I reckon we get some cash together and then he can learn to live with the fact he’s got a bounty on his head.

  3. The Travelling Phantom

    Lockdown 7 for 7 days in Victoria. Dan the man argued he doesn’t want to end up like Sydney of continuous lock down, his method is wax on wax off, I mean 1 week lockdown and one not😉
    Anyway , I do feel for the day to day workers and hope all stay safe

    • They haven’t yet figured out how them and their mates can maximise profits from legalisation.

      • Farkin knuts …

        I don’t know what gives these self righteous 🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬 the right to think they can’t lord it over us ..

        Dumb Farkin 🤬🤬🤬🤬

    • The Travelling Phantom

      Scomo last week on the wireless said ” I told my wife to take it and not to wait 12 weeks in-between , we just need more people vaccinated ”
      This guy cares about NO one

    • Are the census documents linked to an address? I’d if I don’t put my name on it, is that a breach?

      I looked at the paper form and it doesn’t stipulate that all fields are mandatory. I expect each field or questio to have a mandatory field indicator like a web form?

      • The Travelling Phantom

        I’m not sure, did not do it yet,,
        but $2200 seems excessive and seems that there was an idiot who saw over 70K people who wrote jedi made him to give it a religion status in Oz

      • truthisfashionable

        I am a bit late to this, but last census the name field would accept two taps of the space bar.

        Will definitely be trying that again… Although I know our “small” LNP government could link me to the address.

    • Too late, I already identify as a Pastafarian. Sue me. It’s a real religion. As much as any sky Daddy religion is 1.

  4. Snapped up savvy ! Volleyball replay 👀👀

    Evidently I need to push Latvia up my countries of interest.

    • desmodromicMEMBER

      You assume too much. A PhD suggests a measure of intellectual capacity and an ability to write but little else. They can still have dumb ideas and make poor choices.

      • Yeah you’re right I’ll trust a tradie with a tafe certificate or a barista with an arts degree before I trust a PhD

      • It usually mean they know a lot about one area and aren’t shy to opine on other topics on which they know nothing, while using their title to gain some aura of respectability.

        When found in packs they are easily susceptible to groupthink, especially as each one doesn’t want to risk looking stupid in front of the others by asking any question or admitting any lack of knowledge.

        • C'est de la folieMEMBER

          That is nailing it…….

          PhD is a specialisation, to know more about one particular thing than almost anyone else. But it doesnt particularly make anyone a great thinker. When it comes to something as complex as the management of a pandemic even someone in a field which might seem related – lets say something like medical imaging or radiology or maybe even surgery or psychology – wouldnt necessarily know all that much about epidemiology and virus transmission (though presumably they would have access to the medical journals discussing treatments) and they may not necessarily know all that much about the chemistry or the structures of different vaccines, or the logistics and supply systems in place to distribute, after procuring vaccines, and that of course would be well before wondering if they had any knowledge of economics or finance and would necessarily have some all embracing expertise applicable within politics and public policy choices and the range of costs associated with those, or even something as cheap and nasty as the marketing of measures and the presentation of decisions made to the general public.

    • Commented also in the Vic post.
      Yet Masters level had lowest hesitancy. Very odd results, and, as the paper states, more research warranted on the PhDs.
      Sample? Stacked with IT PhDs wfh?

      • Most intelligent people actually do Masters as it bequeaths skill sets, PhD is almost exclusively for people who are looking for permanent academic life (too stupid for the real world).

        I know LOTS of PhD – including some who are now at professor level – and they are without doubt some of the most moronic people.

    • Do you believe in MMT?

      I just see so many similarities:

      All the finance ministers, central bankers, macro-economists are wrong and are missing something in plain sight which has been picked up by a few axe grinders on the internet.who get off on calling people wrong.

      could be a cynical take but I’m pretty confident it is correct.

      • You’re very naive

        The central bankers, finance ministers etc are fully aware of how things work in reality

        They know the government must spend before it can tax – we have been through this in the pre-corona days and you were proven wrong by your own admission

        They just don’t admit it in public

        They’re deliberately suppressing wages, public spending and money velocity so that asset prices can stay high

        That is quite simply their plan , their raison d’être

        They were put there to do just that by our masters

        Did you not realise this is EZ FKA?

        For goodness sake we have just been through QE, Yield curve control , and helicopter money even in little old Australia

        What possible straw could you still be clinging to ?

        • ha. so you are an MMTer.

          “They know the government must spend before it can tax”

          why? take a stranded island with residents trading coconuts for fresh water. And a boat with a few people and guns rolls up and claims the role of central authority. Why do they need to sell their tokens for coconuts before they can just take them at gunpoint?

          “and money velocity so that asset prices can stay high”

          see this is just a dead giveaway. Suppressing money velocity all else equal *lowers* asset prices (excl. bonds and cash) because it lowers the nominal stream of cash flows on all risk assets.

          “For goodness sake we have just been through QE, Yield curve control”

          Only been through yield curve control (up to 3 years) in Australia btw. And yes we have been through that. But you ignore the context which is a world where the sort term rate or price of money is stuck at zero.

          You are extrapolating a regime which suits a specific set of circumstances to become a general rule, exactly the same as your L.I.R dictum – which might make sense in a world with zero probability of vaccine, zero probability of improvement in treatments, stable fatality with accelerating case numbers etc. ie. not the real world.

          • Sweeper,

            Did you not see above that Coming has a PhD in headaches?

            That is perfect training for MMT.

          • “ Suppressing money velocity all else equal *lowers* asset prices (excl. bonds and cash) because it lowers the nominal stream of cash flows on all risk assets.”

            And yet here we are

            Have you checked the sp500 recently ?

            No, it must be your models that are correct

            How much longer can you continue to deny reality

            Do AUD grow on trees? If not, then how are the islanders getting them to buy bonds and pay taxes ?

            Was operation twist not yield curve control? If not, why not

            Interest rates aren’t zero, so why is 1.2% a special condition that allows yield curve control?

  5. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Just did the census ….
    questions interesting

    Do I own my house ?
    How many bed rooms does it have ?
    How many cars are parked on the property ?

    Seems useful info for developers

    …..and what is my religion ?…….but no box for
    Property ?

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      Armidale in lockdown… so …. what’s the difference, drive through Maccas still for dinner 🤣
      Joking, I like Armidale

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          Yup “let it rip” is great for big business, not so much for small. Gladys is advised by her “experts” in the big business community.

    • Source?

      Am heading out for lockdown shopping this AM in NNSW , it’s only a matter of time

      And fishing is worried about snitching on people from Sydney on the mid north coast … let’s see how he feels if someone brings it up from Sydney and he goes into lockdown

  6. FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

    Top comment on sydney/r reddit today:

    “Gladys is fμcking useless. Fμck her and fμck her stupid nothing fμcking response. Cμnt.” – Ashdown (280+ likes)

    The anger is building.

    • More importantly, how does one access those droopy “u” thingy’s from their keyboard?

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

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            No g’d^m white spaces!!!

          • Nope didn’t work lol. Think it might be the DIV container size.


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  7. Just noticed that the German bloke in the 1500m is Herr Farken.

    He should subscribe to MB as Farken Hell.

  8. Here’s a hole they forgot to plug in all the hurry to shut the country down…. that they might want privacy in their war room…
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/national-cabinet-thrown-open-to-scrutiny-in-ruling-it-is-not-a-cabinet-20210805-p58ga3.html

    I especially like this bit:
    “The mere use of the name ‘national cabinet’ does not, of itself, have the effect of making a group of persons using the name a ‘committee of the cabinet’. Nor does the mere labelling of a committee as a ‘cabinet committee’ have that effect,” Justice White said in his judgment.

    Whhaaaaa??? “Saying something so” DOES. NOT. MAKE. IT. SO????? Must be a confusing day in the scummo hollow chamber.

    Send in your FOIs.