Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A bit more calm has returned to Chinese equity markets although Japanese stocks are still having the wobbles following more COVID problems in Tokyo, but generally, Asian risk markets are having a good mid-week session that should translate to further gains tonight with Eurostoxx futures rising. Bitcoin is still deflating having pushed below its own ATR support line on the four hourly chart and almost back to the previous week starting point below the $38K level, but the HODLers should look at that bullish falling wedge pattern as a potential swing point, even though momentum is not yet signalling a reversal:

The Shanghai Composite is bouncing back sharply, up 0.8% to 3475 points while the Hang Seng Index is finally getting some momentum going, up 1% to 26471 points. Meanwhile Japanese stocks are pulling short with more COVID concerns, with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.2% lower at 27584 points. The USDJPY pair is possibly putting in a bottom here after making a new weekly low as it bounces off the 109 handle with some intrasession buying support evident on the recent four hourly candles:

Australian stocks were able to put in modest gains with the ASX200 taking back the previous losses to be up 0.4% to finally crack the 7500 point barrier. Meanwhile the Australian dollar has once again tried to break out above the 74 handle but still finding staunch resistance there just as it did late last week before the Friday smackdown:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are pushing higher on the risk-on mood with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price extending past the 4400 point level as it looks to get out of the continuation from last week’s sideways dance:

The economic calendar continues with the final services PMI prints for Germany/Europe and the US, plus Euro wide retail sales  numbers for July and the EIA private oil data survey.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)


  1. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    Just got my Monday first pfizer job rebooked to this Friday arvo.
    Right in the middle of my beer drinking time on house party,…sigh.

    Annoyingly the second shot won’t be booked in until 6 weeks later instead of 3 weeks later.
    When I inquired as to why I was told it was so more people could get their first shot.
    So 3 extra weeks of going into people’s houses doing emergency plumbing jobs unprotected.
    I’m going to try and book a second job somewhere else.

    • Couldn’t get my first Pfizer until late Oct. Skip the beers Ermo just this once or you could be waiting a while.

      • The Travelling Phantom

        Exactly, better lose one night beer than getting the disease, oh by the way can he still drink after the jab? Or has to Wait few hours?

    • Ugh do you read …. it takes at minimum 14 days for antibody’s to kick in and then you have about 4/6 month before a second is required to boost the immunity further out …. but hay … don’t let facts get involved …

      “Just FYI – the IDSA has now moved the goalposts once again – it seems we now have to vaccinate 90% of the population to reach herd immunity. How many of the members of the IDSA (Infectious Disease Society of America) have actually read the foundational textbook in Infectious Disease – Mandell? That is the accumulated wisdom and knowledge of the specialty. In the very first section of the coronavirus chapter and again in the respiratory virus chapter, it is explicitly stated that herd immunity does not exist in these viruses. If it does, it is only very transitory and the viruses are back again in the next season. I would argue that the evidence we already have is very supportive of what the textbook is stating. Things are much more severe with COVID because it is novel to us – we are still trying to figure each other out. So why are they pushing this so hard? I have no idea. But it seems in our climate today – that mandating vaccination programs to reach a 90% threshold that the foundational textbook says is pixie dust is the height of hubris.”

      Dreamweavers –

    • They’re ripping them out of Rural area’s & gypping us to get things kicked off for you untouchable’s. A lot of not so happy kickback votes coming for hooknose from here.

      I wouldn’t like to be in your boots Ermo, going from house to house – should be in a special category imo.

      • It makes sense to be ripping the jabs out of rural areas that don’t have an outbreak and sending them to the essential workers like Ermo who are in the middle of an outbreak.

        It is a bit like how we don’t keep the fire trucks in Sydney when there is a bush fire in the regions.

        The worst bit is that even 6 weeks into a lockdown we are still only jabbing 85,000 doses per day or approx 500,000 per week.

        NSW has 660,000 doses allocated every week and there is about 3 million doses of AZ sitting in a fridge in Canberra.

        NSW needs to pull its finger out and hit a daily jab total of at least 150,000 per day or about 900,000 per week.

        If the other states don’t want to use AZ well that means more for us (except the sooks who demand Pfiiiiiiiiiiizer)

        Its not hard to do when you consider that 1 jabber can easily do 100 jabs per day (1 every 5 minutes over an 8 hour shift)

        1500 jabbers shouldn’t be difficult to find considering we have 100,000 nurses in NSW and loads of doctors, pharmacists, dentists and vets.

        • I think most of us understand, but there’s still some raised eyebrows & no reassurances on any rescheduled times.

          It took the Nurse 10 mins for each of mine because of all the questions & arse covering backstops. They seem to have been briefed on process & making it a pleasant, reassuring experience….. Doc said he’ll be having it every 6 months……

          • Gathering informed consent is standard practice and helps triage risk. I don’t see why that is an issue

          • I don’t see an issue either. Just noting the difference compared to plenty of other shots I’ve had.

          • The person administering the dose doesn’t need to be the person sorting out consent and paperwork. Have 2 people doing the paperwork and feeding contestants to the jabber.

        • Did you get the memo that there is no such thing as herd immunity with covid because it never has and never will for the foreseeable future and as such formulating policy on that idea is moot …

          • Herd immunity was always a weak argument in favour of vaccination.

            Herd immunity is irrelevant to whether getting the vaccine is of value to the person getting it.

            Those who don’t want the vax should be free to avoid it.

            If they feel confident about their theories good luck to them.

    • C'est de la folieMEMBER

      Its baaaack……(in Melbourne)

      Melbourne’s new COVID-19 case teacher at Al -Taqwa College, Truganina, in city’s west

      A new case of COVID-19 has been detected in Victoria, with the health department confirming the positive case is a teacher at Al-Taqwa College in Melbourne’s west.

      Contact tracers are still tracking how the person caught the virus, and the household contacts of the positive case are being urgently tested.

      The Truganina school will close and all 300 staff members and 2100 students are being advised to isolate and get tested.

      Anyone who lives with those staff members and students must also isolate for 14 days.

      Victoria’s COVID response Commander Jeroen Weimar told ABC Radio Melbourne’s Drive program the woman in her 20s lived in the Hobsons Bay local government area.

      He said health officials believed she may have been infectious while teaching at the school on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday last week.

      He said she was tested on Tuesday and the result came back today.

      Mr Weimar said authorities “always have a plan” when cases emerge.

      “We have been through a number of these outbreaks in schools before, in very recent memory,” he said.

      “They’re obviously a cause of significant anxiety for the school community.

      “We have had some good conversations with the school leadership today, they have been hugely supportive and have done all the right things, as has the teacher.”

      He said health authorities would work with the school in the coming days to work out “where the virus has come from, and if it’s gone any further”.

      The risks of complacency in months ahead
      A close up of a bronze sculpture of a businessman in Melbourne with bulging eyes, wearing a blue surgical face mask.
      A public health expert says clever campaigns may be needed in the months ahead, as data shows mask compliance on trains has risen and fallen with outbreaks over the past six months.

      Last year, the school experienced a serious outbreak of COVID-19, with close to 150 people linked to Al-Taqwa College testing positive.

      Meanwhile a new tier 2 exposure site was listed this afternoon — the first site added since July 31.

      The exposure site is Coles supermarket in Yarraville between 4:30pm and 5:30pm on Thursday, July 29. People who were at the site during that time period are advised to get tested immediately and isolate until they receive a negative result.

      Mr Weimar said it was likely more exposure sites would be released this evening.

      Earlier today Victoria had been celebrating its first day without a locally acquired case in more than three weeks.

      Nine people with COVID-19 remain in Victorian hospitals, including two in intensive care who are both on ventilators.

      Most of the more than 40,000 primary and secondary close contacts who were ordered to quarantine during the outbreak have been released, with fewer than 3000 of those people remaining in isolation.

      The state is now in its second week out of lockdown and the current restrictions, which include a ban on home visits and a mask mandate, are set to stay in place until 11:59pm next Tuesday.

      Nearly 2500 students, teachers at Victorian college ordered to isolate

      The Victorian teacher who tested positive to coronavirus is a woman in her 20s who lives in Hobsons Bay in Melbourne’s south-west, according to the state’s COVID-19 response commander Jeroen Weimar.

      Victorian health authorities believe the woman, who teaches at Al-Taqwa College in Truganina, may have been infectious last Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

      She visited Coles in Yarraville last Thursday and the supermarket has been declared a “tier-2” exposure site.

      Speaking on ABC radio on Wednesday evening, Mr Weimar said health authorities had asked all 2100 students and 300 teachers at the Al-Taqwa school to get tested and isolate for 14 days.

      “We’re working on the basis of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday last week … we’re assuming at this point of time that she may have been infectious [then],” Mr Weimar said.

      “There may be other exposures that emerge over the course of the evening.”

      Mr Weimar said the woman lives with her husband, who was being tested “as we speak”.

      Al-Taqwa College was at the centre of a large COVID outbreak in Victoria last year.

      Mr Weimar said he was confident health authorities would work well with Al-Taqwa to get on top of the new case.

      “The leadership we’ve seen from Al-Taqwa tonight and over recent months has been outstanding, so I’m confident we’ll work well with them to get on top of this outbreak,” he said.

    • Hey Ermo, that’s good news. Comparing UK and Israel data suggests 12 weeks would be even better, if you can avoid an actual infection in the meantime.

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      Nah mate, It give the Pfiiiiiiiizer more efficacy. You won’t need a booster as quick as me if you wait six weeks. Good move.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      A lot of people are making up stories about how the 27 year old have existing health issues, then you have other people saying “he should have got vaccinated” >_< It's a tragedy, and they should give more consideration to the grieving family members.

      For the record, a 27 year old would not be eligible for vaccination before the lockdown in NSW, so there is no way he'll be fully vaccinated regardless.

      • Well he should have fired up the Delorean, set it to Wuhan October 2019, found that bat eating f!cker and knifed him on the spot.

        Blamers always gonna blame.

      • 27 year olds have been able to get AZ in NSW since….

        The story is incredibly sad btw. Really sucks for the family.

  2. C'est de la folieMEMBER

    At the risk of sounding like an idiot (and one who has friends/relatives who have strong opinions – ranging from ‘I am not going near any vaccine’ through to ‘we all need to be vaccinated today’) I have some questions – if anyone has answers.….

    Disclaimer, I have had the first shot of AZ vaccine (and will get the 2nd in circa 3 weeks).

    My understanding of the rough consensus of information in the public domain (and please tell me I am wrong if this is the case) is that……

    1. The only certain preventative measure against the advent of Covid 19 in Australia is hard quarantine.

    2. There is no scope of avoiding lockdowns (once the virus is into Australia) unless enough people get a vaccine which prevents the spread of the virus

    3. The main reason we don’t want the virus spreading actively within the human population is because we are concerned about hospitals (and general healthcare per se) becoming clogged with people requiring breathing support, major potential complications over the longer term because of Covid, and potentially significant deaths amongst the elderly.

    4. It is unlikely there will be international travel for people without a vaccine

    5. It is already known that many people who are vaccinated are still going to get and carry and pass on the virus – that is, that many people will be prevented from getting the virus by the vaccine, but many vaccinated people will still get the virus but not get as ill from the virus as they would have been if unvaccinated.

    6. It is anticipated that there will be further variants of the virus evolve. There seems to be some consensus that the effects of these variants would likely moderate over generations of the virus, but there are no guarantees something more harmful will not evolve.

    7. It is almost certain/highly likely the human race will be taking booster shots to address variants of the virus, probably at least annually, for some time to come.

    8. There has never been a mass vaccine of a generation newer than Astra Zeneca approved for widespread public use which has not been tested for a period less than 2-3 years (or even longer).

    9. There has never been a mRNA vaccine of any sort developed for widespread use, and the potential side effects have never been studied over long periods.

    If the above is anything like right then I find myself thinking that there will continue to be widespread resistance to taking vaccines, and continued need to use lockdowns, for a number of years to come.

    From there though, there are more factors in the mix…..

    10. Large numbers of Australians are being negatively affected by lockdowns, and subsequently experiencing major anxiety and depression issues.

    11. Large numbers of Australians are currently affected by the economic impacts of the lockdowns we have had and are still having.

    12. Financial stress amongst Australians generally is already very significant. Financial stress amongst Australians (and Australian families) dependant for their employment on tourists, foreign students, the hospitality or restaurant sectors, sporting events, mass live entertainment, face to face retail or services, is likely to be more pronounced.

    In the face of the above we seem to have a government which has failed at quarantine, and failed at aged care, is encouraging everybody to get vaccinated (after signing a waiver for the vaccine in my case), and has issued a range of advices about which people should be taking which vaccine. They do seem concerned about Covid, but I tend to agree they are doing sweet FA about the implications of the entire Covid experience and their own role in Australia’s experience – notably the anxiety, depression and mental health angles. I also tend to agree that the great ‘services’ economy Australia has crafted for itself in the NeoLiberal era is at particular risk from an event just like Covid.

    At this stage I find myself thinking that for the now, Australia should tighten even further on access to Australia (vis holders, foreign actors, tourists should be simply told ‘No’ – but Stranded Australians should be told to get on a government provided plane and flown home to handle 3 weeks quarantine somewhere remote). Australians should be told there ‘will be no immigration to Australia except in the most exceptional of circumstances for at least 3 years. Those in Australia who want to depart should be allowed to do so, but only after they have it made perfectly clear to them that there will be no government support to come back, and no timeframe over which they will be able to do so.

    Then I think all Australian families should have:-

    Mortgage payments on mortgages up to 500k for a first family residence made tax deductible.
    All Australian businesses in sectors (tourists, foreign students, the hospitality or restaurant sectors, sporting events, mass live entertainment, face to face retail or services) affected by the advent of Covid should be allowed to write off all plant and equipment deployed for business purposes against business or personal earnings dated back as far as last tax year and as far forward as the Covid experience continues.
    All Australian households should be made a one off grant equal to one half of the taxable income declared in the 2019-2020 tax year.
    All Australians should have access to a one off course of tertiary or vocational study at Commonwealth expense (to be completed within 5 years) with additional incentives for Australians to take up strategic economic skills (IT, green energy, water management, advanced food processing and production, STEM etc).

    From there the corporate sector should be told….
    Australian businesses – particularly retail, banking, telecoms and services should be told ‘population growth has ended for the time being and they will need to come to terms with a fairly stable population and grow profits by doing something original, economically viable, plugged into global demand remotely, or which Australians want to buy.
    Tax concession should be made available to investors wanting to produce or service in Australia (a Covid Free Environment) which is exporting or import competing.

    …….And finally there should be a half yearly review of the progress of the Australian economy in transitioning away from being an inward facing bubble economy fuelled by the proceeds of commodity sales, towards a diverse Economy deploying the skills of Australians to earn an income in a global market – with housing speculation being financially punished (maybe except where it is leading to an increase in housing supply).

    And every year the budget should be announced with the words ‘ the budget deficit due to the Australian economy being structured in the NeoLiberal era to be a fraud brought down by Covid will be -5,6,7,8,9, 10% etc’

    My tuppence

    • Excellent CDLV. You should send it the Dolter so you join Bruce Pascoe as Public Enemy No. 1.

    • the vaccine doesn’t stop you from spreading the virus

      In fact, viral loads in the nasopharynx of vaccinated and unvaccnated appears to be similar according to the CDC (which is why they changed their mask mandates)

      As such, herd immunity is not possible (herd immunity require a lack of hosts to cause functional extinction of the virus)

      The restrictions and liberties that are currently being proposed are therefore nonsensical

      Didn’t read the rest sorry

      • rate of infection is 8 times higher for the unvaccinated.

        Have you ever run the numbers on the herd immunity strategy you were talking about last year?
        eg. what absolute number of deaths over say a 9 month period from April-Dec would have ruled it out as the best strategy? given the death rate would have accelerated as less cases could be treated.

        • Have you got a citation to support that claim?

          CDC data showed that the infection rate was identical for vaccinated and unvaccinated

          UK and israeli data shows similar

          • Concur and would add that people that think vaccination is a get out of ***Jail Free Card*** are worse that anti vaxxers on a public holiday booze fest for spreading infection … with an undeserved side of superiority too boot ….

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            Mmm… that data set is not looking good for delta:

            The key points:
            1) Vaccines appear to improve severity of disease but have no improvement over transmission or infection
            2) Recommendation for universal masking to prevent further transmission
            3) Delta is up there with chickenpox in terms of R-value but not necessarily any more deadly than the alpha strain

            I’m not sure what this means going forward. 18 months later and I think we’re back at the start. Having a higher percentage of vaccinated population would be really nice, but we can’t do much about that now. So, now we get two dud choices: let it go and brace for lots of death/suffering, or lockdown 2.0 to crush it.

            Good luck.

          • don’t want to sound like a broken record, but sweden doing very well

            No restrictions
            <1 death per day

            Natural immunity appears to be far more durable and effective than vaccination

          • RobotSenseiMEMBER

            They also have vaccination rates >40% (full) >60% (single) which dwarf ours, but their initial wave did probably take out a whole bunch who were sitting ducks anyway.

            Anyway long story short, I think if you’re on the fence about vaccination, this is your window to get it, otherwise get ready to take your chances.

          • lower % vaccinated than UK but doing much better in terms of mortality, despite now similar levels of restrictions


            Coming. Swedes have 70%+ of 18+ with one dose, 55%+ fully vaxxed. Natural immunity ain’t a panacea. Vaccines are certainly doing their part to derisk and prevent further lockdowns and restrictions on a population level, and also on a personal risk and health level.

      • The Travelling Phantom

        Can you please expand on the herd immunity being impossible, the sentence you used isn’t clear enough

        • yes sure

          “Herd immunity” implies that the virus does not have enough potential hosts within the population group to spread and therefore to survive as it must constantly seek new hosts, as old ones either die or clear the infection

          The virus becomes functionally extinct in that population group

          Here is a youtube video explaining
          I haven’t watched it – but it comes from 2013 so hopefully free of politicisation from the trump/wuflu era

          We achieved this with measles through use of a vaccine schedule (3 injections) that produces a 99.9% immunity rate (ie can neither CONTRACT nor PASS on the virus)
          One measles vaccine provides 90% immunity in this regard, and that was deemed inadequate (as measles is highly infectious)

          Since it appears that the corona vaccine does not impede the ability of the virus to infect people (only reduce the severity of their illness), it would seem that this will not be possible with current vaccinations

          The virus will always be present continuing to infect and spread (albeit with less pathogenicity)

          Unless we were to Wuhan style lockdown for a prolonged period so that it was completely extinguished, and then keep the borders shut permanently (since we aren’t competent enough to prevent leakage from quarantine facilities)

        • The IDSA has now moved the goalposts once again – it seems we now have to vaccinate 90% of the population to reach herd immunity. How many of the members of the IDSA (Infectious Disease Society of America) have actually read the foundational textbook in Infectious Disease – Mandell? That is the accumulated wisdom and knowledge of the specialty. In the very first section of the coronavirus chapter and again in the respiratory virus chapter, it is explicitly stated that herd immunity does not exist in these viruses. If it does, it is only very transitory and the viruses are back again in the next season.

          See my comment above …

    • “Mortgage payments on mortgages up to 500k for a first family residence made tax deductible”

      Good lord, up the tobacco ratio gunna.


          Well you’ll just get the higher earners saving the most tax and splitting mortgages to qualify, further pricing out the working poor.

      • C'est de la folieMEMBER

        …..actually, you might be onto something there!

        While using the Covid outbreak to completely reshape the economy, we could institute a National Ganga Authority and possibly introduce a National Plant Bounty…..

        But seriously, would a mortgage tax deduction cost more than JobKeeper? And would the funds freed up in that manner both save families from stress, be spent on other presumably meaningful social endeavours (instead of being utterly wasted on mortgages and rents) and facilitate an economic reshaping? – while offsetting all of those parts of the economy creamed by the lack of access to the rest of the world?

        While just out collecting my kids I found myself thinking in terms of a national marketing strategy revolving around a ‘Covid Free Australia’ pitched at the worlds wealthiest and incorporating them spending time in the worlds most luxurious quarantine facilities before being allowed to travel about at leisure, and possibly really selling immigration slots to those who were (a) Covid Free and prepared to do quarantine and (b) prepared to stump up the readies…..Would it be any more offensive than what we have been doing for a generation?

        No matter what we do I think we are going to have to think radical and right outside the square. The policy and intellectual schlock we have had chundered down on us by the Torynuffs (and ALP) for a generation offers no real prospect of anything better than what we had.

        • My concern is that any freeing up of cash just gets channelled straight back into the purchase price, thus making them more expensive by an equal amount (or higher amount, if you factor in leverage).

  3. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Channel 9 news to night reporting that Christine Holgate
    “walked away with 1 million of taxpayers money “

    Given she was employed by the taxpayers …and somewhat unfairly sacked the tax payers are getting off cheap ……

    Channel 9 would do well to refocus their reporting on some of the real costs to taxpayers in recent years …..

    Start your list here ……

    • Anything involving water and the environment that Angus Taylor or Barnaby Joyce have been near. The comments text box doesn’t allow for all the zeroes.

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Look, if you’re not preparing to eventually catch the China virus then you will be shocked. That may be enough for it to expire you.

  5. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Watched the women’s skateboarding final in Tokyo this avo .cos I had nothing better to to

    But to see those kids from all countries ( aged 12 to 23 ) give it their best and have fun while hugging each other at every opportunity was heart warming to be sure ….
    This was sport at its best ……before they become mean and super competitive… most do

    • + many.

      Like kids in a skate park. Minus the pot, cigarettes and goon. So much nicer than the skate parks I remember. They also don’t fall off as often as I did. And there weren’t any dead kennedys shirts. Do skaters still wear those things? It’s good that they banned roller bladers. Those guys were always lame. But does not being in the Olympics now make them cooler than skate boarders? That’s a conundrum right there.

      Here’s old people dead kennedys for all you old people.

        • You ain’t been near a pub since the pub crawl that those sadistic house heads forced you to take part in during your university orientation week.

      • The Travelling Phantom

        What an idiot, bank transfer instead cash ?????!!!!
        He needs to go to ScoMo’s classes on Sundays after church

        • From what I hear more desperate and foolish. They’ve definitely had dodgier on their council in the past. More foolish? I just don’t know. Mining Bogan’s more hooked into the FNQ shenanigans than I am. It’d be interesting to get his take.

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            So, you reckon he’s running a variation of the Porter defence then? Honestly your Honour, it emailed off my BSB and account number by itself when I hit the enter key accidentally after slipping and falling.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Not any more. The councillor I knew has left the job and the once great Hillbilly Blog is now white noise. If I remember right the guy behind it was outed in state parliament to try and shut him down.

            Edit: it might have been federal parliament you know. Manning and Warren Entsch sailed the same currents. Entsch is not known for honesty.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            I only know three things about Manning.

            I. He’s always been suspiciously close to developers.

            2. He runs away from financial responsibilities when his own businesses bankrupt.

            3. He’s a c#nt.

        • Now that I’ve mused on it a bit, brown paper bags are the way to go. Not just because it can’t be traced, but because that way the other party gets done as well. The lawyer may get off lightly because it was so transparent. I hate it when lawyers get off lightly.

  6. The Travelling Phantom

    Hey Reusa do you think Cumo of New York should be sacked with all these allegations of sexual harrrassings?

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      Lock him up! Relations activities should always be consensual. Getting women to willingly submit is all part of the fun. Sometimes that takes a couple of hundred bucks.

        • reusachtigeMEMBER

          If I’m gonna take a bird to a burger joint then it’s only going to be the Stuffed Beaver Dining Parlour on Bondi road!

  7. reusachtigeMEMBER

    Women’s sport – the one place where having a decent rack is a disadvantage…

  8. desmodromicMEMBER

    Watching the Olympics. When did it become a thing for blokes to roar after every minor success? It ain’t pretty, especially if you are still 45th.