Dwelling approvals falling after HomeBuilder

New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that dwelling approvals fell by 6.7% in June to be 48.9% higher over the year.

The fall was driven by detached houses, which tanked 11.8% in June whereas unit approvals rose 0.8%.

Units led approvals over the year, lifting a whopping 63.7% versus a 44.3% rise across the detached house market.

The next chart, which presents the data in seasonally adjusted terms, plots the changes:

Dwelling approvals

Falling after HomeBuilder ended.

According to Daniel Rossi, Director of Construction Statistics at the ABS:

“Since the unwinding of stimulus measures, approvals for private houses have fallen 20.9 per cent from the record high in April. Despite the fall, private house approvals remain at elevated levels and are 44.3 per cent higher than June 2020 and 37.6 per cent higher than June 2019”.

Annual dwelling approvals continue to rebound, driven by detached houses where approvals are running at record levels, offsetting recent heavy falls in apartment approvals:

Dwelling approvals

Annual house approvals hit another record high.

The next chart plots annual approvals across the major jurisdictions, which shows that all markets have rebounded from recent lows:

Dwelling approvals

Broad-based rebound.

Based on this data, dwelling construction should remain strong for the remainder of the year given approvals lead commencements and completions.

The big slowdown will come in 2022 as the pull forward of demand from HomeBuilder ends.

Unconventional Economist
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