As usual, Goldman is taking the bullish view:
The ongoing Covid outbreak in China, though still small in absolute terms with only a few hundred officially confirmed cases, has spread across many provinces and raised concerns among investors over its impact on economic activity.
We use the previous outbreak in Guangdong province in May-June, also triggered by the highly contagious Delta variant, as a benchmark. At its current geographic scope, and if restrictions stayed in place one month, we estimate the potential impact on China’s Q3 growth would be around 0.7pp (annualized), mainly on weaker service-sector activity. Of course, the actual impact could be smaller or potentially much larger, depending upon the ultimate length and breadth of the outbreak and the severity of the restrictions needed to control it.