The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index has rebounded 1.1% after Victoria and South Australia lifted their lockdowns:
- Consumer confidence gained 1.1% last week as the lockdowns in Victoria and South Australia ended. Confidence dropped in Sydney with the extension of lockdown in the city, but this was not enough to offset gains elsewhere.
- All but one of the subindices registered a gain. ‘Current financial conditions’ rose 1.0%, while ‘future financial conditions’ increased by 2.3%.
- ‘Current economic conditions’ lost 4.7%, while ‘future economic conditions’ gained 0.5%.
- ‘Time to buy a major household item’ improved by 5.3%. ‘Weekly inflation expectations’ fell by 0.1ppt to 4.2%, though the four-week moving average rose 0.1ppt to 4.2%.
However, confidence remains well below the historical average:
David Plank, ANZ Head of Australian Economics, commented:
Consumer confidence rose by 1.1% last week as restrictions were lifted from Victoria and South Australia. Confidence in their capital cities improved by 2.0% and 2.9% respectively. Sentiment in Brisbane was also up by 2.7%, but the majority of the survey was completed before the three-day lockdown in South East Queensland was announced. Sentiment in Sydney was down a sharp 7.0% as the lockdown in the city was extended by a month. While below the long-run average, overall consumer confidence is well above the levels seen during Melbourne’s long second lockdown. This is consistent with the evidence provided by ANZ Job Ads that the economic impact of the current lockdowns is likely to be considerably less than in 2020.
Queensland’s lockdown could dent next week’s reading.