Battle of the COVID models

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Good luck figuring it out because it’s become polarised. At The Australian:

Reopening Australia with thousands of Covid-19 cases active in the community will not lead to more deaths over six months than waiting for virus numbers to be contained at low numbers, updated modelling by the Doherty Institute has found.

The Australian can reveal the modelling, to be discussed at a meeting of national cabinet on Friday, conducted analysis of three scenarios over a 180-day period based on Covid case numbers in the tens, hundreds and thousands when restrictions were lifted and found no material difference in ­expected fatality rates.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.