Forex markets reversed weekly moves on Friday with DXY suddenly strong on what looked suspiciously like safe-haven buying as risk assets struggled. EUR fell:
The Australian dollar was bashed against all major DM crosses. It is already hurtling to new lows versus EUR:
Commodities largely reversed downwards (except oil):
Exuberant miners woke in fright:
EM stocks are desperately clinging to the cliff’s edge:
EM junk is fading rather than plunging:
The yield curve sank:
As stocks struggled:
This is rising growth worries playing out as the COVID reopening boom fades away in China and the US. It’s not at a crisis point but is edging that way. Ahead, at best, we see an ongoing commodity price bust that really got going on Friday for iron ore. But I’ll want to see base metals in free fall as well before I’m persuaded that more stimulus support is coming.
Chinese yields are leading the whole world lower:
Soon enough we’ll see more RRR cuts and when that fails to lift the falling Chinese economic aircraft it will be cash rate cuts as well. That’ll break CNY:
And where CNY goes, AUD follows. That China is leading the global growth slowdown is the key to the AUD and the shorts are moving in:
Until one or both of US and Chinese central banks panic, AUD is going lower.
