ANZ: Aussie property prices to surge 20%

ANZ has revised its Australian property price forecasts and now expects dwelling values to rise by more than 20% in 2021 followed by 7% growth in 2022:

ANZ property price forecasts

Property prices are expected to rise 24 per cent in Canberra by year’s end and 23 per cent in Sydney and Hobart… Gains of 21 per cent and 20 per cent are expected in Brisbane and Melbourne, respectively…

The next chart shows the year-to-date dwelling value growth across the major capitals. Note: Perth’s dwelling values index has been temporarily suspended due to anomalies.

Dwelling values

Turbo-charged growth.

Given we still have four months to go in 2021, ANZ’s price growth forecasts look realistic overall. However, they are probably too pessimistic for Sydney and overly optimistic for Melbourne.

Unconventional Economist

Comments

  1. Interesting.

    August is peak selling season here in Darwin and prices have gone ballistic since last October. From July, prices have been driven up by Sydneysiders escaping lock downs.

    Now this is where it gets interesting. Over the last 2 weeks Gladys and Scomo have been pushing vaxxing and opening up – with a plan and a loose time frame. Vaccination rates are going vertical and kids can now get it.

    …and I’m seeing a few “price reduced” and “new price” on lower end listings – the older 2 bed apartments. Not the family style houses but older smaller apartments.

    Real estate agents in Darwin say we are counter cyclical to Sydney.
    So I suspect that with Sydney and the borders opening up by Xmas, interest in Darwin will drop rapidly – and prices with it.

  2. “Perth’s dwelling values index has been temporarily suspended due to anomalies.” Really curious to know what’s going on there.

    • GonzificusMEMBER

      Houses not going up in value, maybe we have the chart upside down, better investigate for anomalies.

  3. Fishing72MEMBER

    Anecdata: The fella I surfed with today was telling me about his new neighbours. They are from Melbourne and bought their house in our town sight unseen. “Yeah yeah” you say. Old story. But it turns out these Victorians had never even been to NSW before, let alone our small regional town many hours from Sydney. Sure I can sort of understand someone taking a leap of faith and buying a house over the internet as you can get a decent assessment of the state of the place from a builder but how about relocating to a new town in a new state totally blind? They didn’t know anyone who lived here either apparently.

    Very keen!

    It doesn’t exactly give a glowing reference for Melbourne living though does it…

    • Yes that is impressive. Of course there’s been plenty of articles in the past about what happens after a few years and they pack up and return for the hip replacement etc, and if you’re young, how do brown-nose over zoom?

      • if they were Sydney siders I’d be surprised they knew something was on the other side of the Blue Mountains! But yeah agree most Melbournians have never heard of Kaniva or any other western vic town.

    • You don’t necessarily get to know all the neighbours here as everybody is rushing around doing their own thing. I can understand where people want to GTFO and perhaps a change of pace. I don’t understand the buying sight unseen though.

  4. And we’ll all ride off into the sunset…

    Irrational exuberance extrapolated into an infinite future.

    Nobody can blame you!