Morgan Stanley says its a boom:
Our US cycle indicator skips the ‘recovery’ phase and switches straight to ‘expansion’. Historically, this has supported owning equities and driven important changes in leadership.
Our cycle model switches to ‘expansion’: Big moves in consumer confidence and initial jobless claims mean that data which drive our cycle indicator are now ‘better than average and improving’, moving the model from ‘repair’ to ‘expansion’, jumping swiftly past the ‘recovery’ phase that tends to lie between the two. We see this as support for our case for a hotter but shorter cycle.
