Morgan Stanley with a note on rising US wages. I agree that wages growth will be better this cycle than last owing to larger fiscal stimulus and faster growth but am still skeptical that it represents much inflation risk. Recent gains look like catch-up growth owing to temporary supply-side frictions. There’s plenty of underlying slack that will loosen as post-COVID normal evolves.
It’s Getting Hot
When the COVID lockdowns first hit, the primary risk facing companies centered on how to survive the sharpest economic downturn in 90 years. On reflection, what companies were able to accomplish over the past year with most of the labor force working from home is an economic miracle. In aggregate, the US economy surpassed its pre-COVID peak last quarter, just nine months after the trough of the recession. Profits returned to peak levels even faster, with many companies feeling no effects of the recession at all. In fact, essential businesses and technology enablers achieved an acceleration in pre-COVID sales trends, accompanied by record profitability as labor and other costs fell precipitously.