CoreLogic leading mortgage index is a pretty good way to track what’s coming in ABS owner-occupier data. Suddenly, it ain’t look so crash hot:
The index level is still high but the recent tumble is quite substantial and steep relative to past winter pullbacks. This may reflect lockdowns or just be a part of the natural falling off of activity as prices reach nosebleed levels.
Remember, however, that this is only owner-occupiers so it does not augur any kind of price bust when investors are starting to fill the breach.
Especially so when inventory remains so low:
This data still signals strong price growth but the handoff from owner-occupiers to investors also brings forward macroprudential tightening which appears inevitable now before or after the election.