Stock market quietly deflates

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Morgan Stanley with the note:

NBER confirms the shortest recession in history at just 2 months. From the day the recession began last year, we’ve been ahead of the consensus with the progression of this new cycle staring with the v-shaped recovery. It’s all happening faster than normal and that means rotations and changing leadership is happening faster too.

Our midcycle transition starting back in March should now make more sense with historical comparisons as it typically begins about 9-12 months after the recession ends.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.