Schvets: Beware the Black Swans

The magnificent Viktor Schvets at Macquarie with the note:

UK, Taiwan & Australia highlight fragility of normalization narrative

•Black Swan is supposed to be something that is unique, unexpected and has a major impact. As Taleb noted, we invariably attempt to rationalize such events and make them more predictable, even though they have retrospective (not prospective) attributes. While pandemics are statistically predictable, our abilityto assess the likely responses and their success rates is grossly deficient.

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