NSW records new high 136 COVID cases

NSW Health has reported another 136 local COVID cases over the past 24 hours:

Of these locally acquired cases, 77 are linked to a known case or cluster – 65 are household contacts and 12 are close contacts – and the source of infection for 59 cases is under investigation.

Fifty-three cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 17 cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Fifty-three cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 13 cases remains under investigation.

There are 137 patients in hospital of which 32 are in ICU.

The next chart plots the progression of NSW’s daily cases against Victoria’s Winter-Spring outbreak last year, which saw Melbourne shut down for 14 weeks:

New COVID infections

Australia’s two biggest outbreaks compared.

NSW now has 1574 active local COVID cases, which probably won’t peak for several more weeks:

Active COVID cases

Still yet to peak.

It is going to be a long winter…

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

    • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

      while I’m sure there will be a push from business lobbyists for this, I can’t see how the state will open themselves up to that kind of liability. Every single side effect or death will be PR issue as well as a court case and financial liability

      • macrofishMEMBER

        Workcover will have a fit, forcing people to sign a waiver to get a jab to work is not going to happen.

    • My understanding is that the AstraZeneca phony has been given 6 million times in Australia and has caused 60 cases of clots with 6 deaths attributed.

      If so, deaths are extremely rare, but still more likely than winning a lottery or hitting a kid in a school zone. Do Aussie punks feel lucky?

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        The problem is nobody died from having the Pfizer which is more effective, and the wait for the second shot is shorter.

        • No one died from Sputnik either, but the problem is that no one knows for sure what are the long term effects of mRNA.
          Before Cofid19, it was quite a scary proposition to make a jab based on it.

        • I presume you meant aspirin.
          My doctor told me that thinning the blood was counterproductive or outright dangerous.it wasn’t clotting from the coagulation that is the issue. Apparently. He’s a doctor, what do o know.

    • Why not mandated North Korean style exercise regimes?
      We’ve been at it 16 months now and had we started then a huge number of the overweight and obese could have reduced their co-morbidity risk factor significantly.

  1. ‘…probably won’t peak for several more weeks:’

    Gladys spent a bunch of time in the presser calling for accelerated vaccination rollout in the western Sydney areas most affected by the current outbreak. Given a minimum three week gap between Pfzer jabs, that suggests she also expects the current outbreak not to peak for several more weeks, and continue for many weeks beyond the week.
    Or it’s an admission she’s totally lost control, and needs to blame shift, which would mean an even longer wait until the end of the outbreak.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      I really don’t think they’re gonna end this one. They ain’t doing enough and the populace are over it. So rolling lockdowns/curfews ala UK and France it is then. Until they sort their vaccination situation one day in the distant future..

      Fun fact: for all the talk of UK being some bastion of freedom recently, they’ve had the most lockdowns plus curfews, over the last year, than anywhere in the world! Ie. More virus/poor virus controls = more and longer lockdowns.

      I hope the vaxx keeps the UK free-ish, but we’re miles and miles away from that.

      • the simple fact is: No one has contained Delta, not one country yet

        In a few months we’ll open up just like the UK.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          Not without jabs in arms we won’t. But we’ve c0cked that process up so far.

          And by “we”, I mean our inept political leaders.

          • Cocking up on experimental emergency approved jab is not necessarily a cockup. Can be properly assessed only in hindsight

        • “No one has contained Delta, not one country yet”

          No, but Commie Dan did for Vic – and looks set to do so again.

          Not that you’ll see any media hacks acknowledge it, including MB.

      • UK’s 7 day average daily death from COVID is 52 per day as of today. Extrapolating to NSW population that would be around 5 per day, up from current 1 death every other day in recent weeks in NSW, so ten times worse than NSW is currently this outbreak. If that’s the end game, NSW is truly screwed.

    • Classic case of look, look, over there!
      Its Morrisons fault not mine.
      Unfortunatley, she blew it, in the dead of winter. Thanks Glayds!

    • She’s taken control of the narrative, pushed it to vaccines. Not a problem with that at all, there should be an emphasis on vaccines. She’s taken other pressures off herself like the, it’s out of control premier, cannon fire.

      • There is a problem with this actually. While the narrative is on vaccines the narrative is not on the reason why this was in the community in the first place. Dedicated quarantine outside city centres is something low tech and simple the government could have done. Any project manager, bureauceat worth his salt would of seen leakage of hotel quarantine as a likely and highly costly risk. Given it’s an RNA virus the likelihood of covid mutating is also high and costly. Relying on everyone to do the right thing (problem of the commons) especially in places like west sydney where there is genuine reasons to distrust the government is not a feasible risk control.

        While the effective narrative is on vaccines they can blame the community and other people. When really it’s entirely their fault for doing quarantine half assed. I hope people make them accountable for their failure next election however with all this vaccine talk I doubt it.

    • They said they’d be looking at planning for restrictions to continue “into October.” I daresay that’s optimistic. It’s either zero cases in the community + 28 days OR 80% vaccination before they open up Sydney again.

      • This, but I’d say 0 cases in community for 14 days.

        I fully expect we’ll still be locked down at Christmas.

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      Maybe we can build a fire, sing a couple of songs, huh? Why don’t we try that?

    • I have a nasty feeling they have given up and are just trying to ‘suppress’.

        • He’s back peddlin’ like crazy. Claims to have offered Gladys the military ‘mulitple’ times.

          There must be an election in the offing…….

  2. How’s that BIG AUSTRALIA policy working out for ya now, NSW?
    Dense crowded cities filled with people with different cultures, living and hygiene standards all on top of each other will cause viruses to spread.

    Import 3rd world and you become 3rd world.

    • There is an element of that I suspect. The areas worst affected are mostly new migrant areas. Having said that these are the people who are most likely unable to work from home as well.That does not help. But even SG which is very ethnically homogenous is struggling to contain delta.

      • This is about class not country of origin. This virus will always affect those who cant WFH more than lose who can. It will always affect large households more especially if on average those households dont WFH. Considering NSW still isn’t financially assisting casual employees its stands for reason people are making the right decisions for THEM. Thats what Scotty wants them to do right, everyone needs to be responsible for their own health right..

    • Theres also the fact that in west sydney and other lower class areas normally the government is not on your side. In west Sydney they usually have borders wide open where west Sydney is the dumping ground and all the effects on health, traffic and quality of life are felt. Warehouse developments, the incinerator development, 24/7 airport near established suburbs, new dog box housing estates, and the list goes on and on of reasons for them to distrust the government in all forms.

      With a local population that would rather be neglected and left alone by the government probably vs how they’ve been treated it isnt just the migrants that distrust the government, I’m sure its many others there as well.

      Doesn’t help that they didnt lock up Bondi the same way as they did western sydney when the virus was local to there.

  3. Forrest GumpMEMBER

    Gold Standard Gladys calls this a National Emergency
    If that is right, why didnt she make that call 2 weeks ago while everyone was still wandering around without masks on shopping for shoes and handbags and buying stuff from Harvey Norman?

    The horse has bolted Gladys. Weeks ago while you were pandering to big business.

    Phuck U!

      • Classic! I hope someone is sending that to Gladys and replaying it for all NSWelshpeople in lockdown.

        Why can’t VIC get it right? Well Gladys, they have – twice now with Delta (almost there).

        Hang your head in shame Gladys. No vaccines coming from Vic for you.

    • C’mon national emergency – they are just hanging on to their misguided policy of agressive suppression. If this is continued we will have never ending lockdowns. Focussing on cases is just plain wrong, it does not mean someone is ill. The only meaningful numbers are hospitalisations and ICU bed occupation – the rest is semantics. And yes, the vaccination rate in the population is crucial.
      I came back to Australia after a few years overseas and was left wondering when clearing customs, health checking, quarantine etc etc with countless interviews by health officials but not once was I asked about my vaccination status. I would have thought that to be one of the most important things when coming into the country.
      I just don’t understand Australian politics, been away too long.

  4. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Pretty sure this is all Dan’s fault, hence national emergency.

    Gold Standard F^ckwits.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        The most venally corrupt government since the Rum Corp and certainly the most incompetent, yet it’s all Labor’s fault! 🙂

      • DodgydamoMEMBER

        now it’s Dans fault he’s taking charge and calling for a ring of steel around Sydney 😂

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    I just got a text from my local medical centre (im on a waiting list) saying they are now taking bookings for Pfizer jabs.
    Wed the 18th of August is the earliest booking!
    Im already booked in somewhere else on the 9 of August.
    Booked it 2 or 3 weeks ago.
    The whole roll out is a debacle!

    Testing on the other hand is easy.

    Got my second test this week at the Oatlands drive through and there wasn’t a single car in front of me at 9.30 am.
    I was in and out in 5 mins.
    I thought I was getting good at copping it up the noz but I shamed my self this time with quite an audible gag and reflexive pulling away.

    I was so ashamed of this unmanly behaviour.

  6. alwaysanonMEMBER

    I am booked in to get my 2nd dose of Pfizer August 2nd at the Olympic Park hub. They better not pull it to give somebody else a first dose!

    • With a bit of luck, Scotty will look after his Golden Girl Gladys and pull a bunch of doses from Victoria and fly them straight to Bankstown airport.

      After all, the Victorians are very good at controling the virus now and have no urgent need for vaccines.

      If we vaccinate Sydney quickly we can go back to doing what we do best.

      Handle the vast majority of the “stranded Aussies” desperate to get back down under.

  7. NelsonMuntzMEMBER

    It is the end of a long week of home schooling and working from home, and to top it off, Telstra deciding to perform urgent network maintenance which has cut off our high speed internet access for the last 48 hours, put us on flakey backup 4G internet and now requires an nbn technician to fix on Monday as Telstra says “No problem from our end mate!” [I am not blaming GSG for Telstra/nbn crapness, just for having to rely on interwebs so much atm] So Gladys, from everyone in Victoria:
    “Gold Standard” *slow clap*

    • Quite possibly not war gaming but common sense – and what Dan did to control the Vic outbreak last year.

      Quite a contrast between Garrulous Gladys and Dan the Man – his dedication day in day out for months facing a hostile media and answering every contrived question deserving of a medal, but won’t even rate a mention from the corrupt and facile do-nothing idiots in Canberra and NSW

  8. Hypothetically speaking:

    If we ceased all restrictions and let it rip now, what could we expect?
    * Most people exposed within 1 month
    * what % feel no effects
    * what % feel very sick
    * what % need hospital
    * what % need ICU/ventilator
    * what % die

    • What % of the rest of the population die because they can’t get access to a hospital.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      3 million out of 8 million in NSW got at least one does, leaving 5 million unvaccinated. Most of the are people under 40 who don’t qualify for the vaccine prior to the outbreak. If you ‘let it rip’, 10% will need hospitalization, so 500,000 hospital beds, (Delta hit the young as well), As there are not enough hospital beds, those who don’t get a bed will die due to lack of oxygen in the blood. Of the 3 million who have at least one shot, most of them will be AstraZeneca, which is only about 50% effective with only one shot. That means 10% of those will die as well.

      To put the number into a more personal perspective : everyone surviving person n NSW will have a close family member or friend who have died from COVID-19.

    • Look what happened in India with the bodies floating down the Ganges. Mass sickness and death, that’s what would happen.

  9. At least a good chunk are family or close family contacts.
    Thats why viral diseases spread in winter, you’re more likely to be inside around people/family. These cases should burn themselves out provided these families can keep limit movement.
    Work premises could be doing more, how many of these places have seen a electromagnetic wavelength of less than 400nm of late? Coles, Wollies etc, as filthy as ever. That dirty token plastic screen ain’t doing shit. Time to get on a conference call.

    • “Thats why viral diseases spread in winter.” Thats now being contested. Of course like everything its multifactorial, Vit D seems to be a major player in that equation, maybe the main driver. Christ Gladys could be doing so much more. See Victoria 2020 for solutions that worked. Think the key one thats been ignored so far is having % caps on workers onsite. Forcing more inactivity as businesses never will. UV light in Woolies I dont think will be a big determinant in the Hubris wave, extending the ring of steel from Fairfields to the rest of Sydney and taking the measures Vic used is a great starting point. Masks Always. Km limit can be tightened. Apply a curfew. Exercise once per day. Laughable Gladys is calling a National Emergency when she hasn’t even locked down Sydney yet. Its Yes Ministers 4 phase plan writ large.

      • DodgydamoMEMBER

        To be fair I think it’s Kerry Chant calling national emergency… maybe because she can’t get the lockdown required from Gladys 🤔 time to go over her head?

        • Fair call. As you say Hazzard is living up to his name, Gladys to the hubris of saving the Nation. Thanks Phil Coorey!

          I don’t really understand how they think Vaccines will help in the next 2 months. It won’t change the transmission in aggregate, and I think its naïve to expect to be able to geographically target vaccines even then if can its doubtful that it will be effective when you look at the UK.

          There is still so much for them to do from a policy and NPI point of view though. Looking at all their decisions its like none of them require them to put some skin the game, its virtually a market approach to solving the pandemic. We’ll stand aside vaguely let you know its bad but after spending 18 months telling its easy and our contact tracing team can handle it so you dont have to.

          Hopefully they’ll now get serious like the Victorians did in late July, we’ll see more appropriate restrictions applied in the next fortnight or so and hopefully effective R will fall below 1. Sack Hazzard, hide the treasurer, find a health deputy that can communicate and the NSW Jeroen Weimar please stand up.

          Spookily strange how both waves are similar in outcome for diametrically opposed reasons.

      • Yes definitely Vit.D. But you don’t ever see health advice from these boffins that if it is a sunny day to try and maximize exposure.
        High intensity UV sterilisation particularly in air-conditioning systems is highly effective.
        You don’t even see basic advice to improve per hour airflow changes being promoted.
        3 ply masks and worse – the homemade material variety don’t do anything. Its a comfort blanket essentially.
        But its actually worse than this as people constantly touch the exterior of the mask and then contaminate other surfaces. But hey they are signalling their virtue right?

        • a lot to be said about scrubbing the air even if you don’t need to cool or heat it.. co2 levels is a classic problem in alot of offices and why half of them feel sleepy.

          I don’t have an issue with masks, for me the’re only useful to untrained users when used to stop you infecting someone else. As such their only really effective when everyone uses them, and it doesn’t matter to much what their made from. Realistically protecting yourself from Delta indoors requires proper airborne protection so fit tested mask, face shield, gloves, gowns. A friend of mine was an IC nurse and caught it within 4 weeks of working with cases last year. He had the best protections available. Think its fruitless for plebs like me to try and protect myself, but if I can reduce my spread by 80% by covering my mouth and nose that seems doable. Other than that sounds like fomite transmission is moot when you can catch it walking through the breathed out air of someone for as little as 2 seconds