NSW records another 44 COVID cases

Things have gone from bad to worse in NSW, with the state recording another 44 local COVID cases overnight taking the total case count to around 420:

Of the 44 locally acquired cases reported to 8pm last night, 21 are from south-west Sydney, eight are from south-east Sydney and seven are from western Sydney. Transmission in these areas continues to be of great concern.

There are now 285 cases directly linked to known cases in the Bondi cluster. There are 37 cases that have not been directly linked to a known case or cluster, with a further 117 who are linked to these 37 unlinked cases.

There are currently 43 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 10 people in intensive care, four of whom require ventilation.

The next chart plots this outbreak against the prior two episodes:

NSW active COVID cases

Explosive growth.

A three week lockdown is looking increasingly optimistic. As a Melburnian, I feel Sydneysiders’ pain.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. Listening to Channel 7 Live stream right now. To paraphrase, you see, the world is vaccinated, that’s way they can open up. You’re not, so you get locked down.

    • Should be: “You see ScoMo threw the contract to AZ, as his ol’ mate Kirean Scheeman, ex-LNP chief of staff who now runs AZ, and told Pfizer to go F*** themselves.

      Contracts to mates, the LNP way”

      • Now our AZ jabs are going to PNG, Fiji and Indonesia. Imagine Fiji being fully vaccinated before us with the AZ jabs we thumbed our nose at.

        • That’s grouse. It means those of us vaccinated can go and travel to the Indo Pacific. I was just remarking to Mrs Swampy it’d be grand to take the boys to a quiet part of Indo for some surfing, exploration etc.

  2. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Shawn guessed 43 yesterday in Macro Afternoon. Congrats, tap-in for birdie.

  3. Dr Chant just said 7000 close contacts were identified the day before yesterday and 14000 close contacts identified today.
    The Melbourne outbreak is looking like it might be a walk in the park comparatively.

    • In that case $ 500/wk isn’t going to cut it. NSW are going to need proper business support……will be interesting what they do……Jobkeeper was too generous looking long term so somewhere in between.

      • The small business grants for turnover under 75k might need to be statewide.

        They’ll need to ban regional travel – Jacob ain’t going to be able to run his hi flow tap head business in Dubbo if the stock can’t come in.

        BNK will have to block Sydney flights, surely **

        ** except private jizzy’s, natch.

      • BradleyMEMBER

        Isn’t anyone allowed to go broke anymore? I bought a great home in the 90’s for 2.5 times my wages at a mortgagee in possession sale. They don’t seem to happen anymore either.

    • Close contracts self isolate for 14 days, so Sydney will get tighter restrictions by the fact that most residents have to self isolate.

      Comparing with Melbourne is not entirely right. Restrictions were set over one month since the initial infections and daily numbers were pushing 100. During that month, the government allowed a large protest in the city. What commenters here seem to forget is that Victoria absolutely stuffed up its initial response to the second wave.

      • A Melbourne friend comments daily on Sydney committing all the same mistakes that Melbourne did at the beginning. It’s not that NSW gov is stuffing it up, it’s that they are stuffing it up after having the benefit of seeing the mistakes that the VIC gov made.

      • TheLambKingMEMBER

        What commenters here seem to forget is that Victoria absolutely stuffed up its initial response to the second wave.

        No, what we are saying is that Gladys/NSW seems to have not learnt from all of the mistakes made in that Victorian 2nd wave and is making the EXACT same mistakes! The last Vic lockdown showed all the lessons learnt put into practice.

  4. TheLambKingMEMBER

    And now Gladys has stopped the half pregnant spin. She was emphasizing that of those 44 people, 29 were out infecting the public – she has dropped the ‘some of the time’ rubbish. But 29 of the 44 out in the public means the current ‘lockdown lite’ is not working. Get used to General/Gadaffi/Grumpy Gladys?

    And I still expect Leith to give ‘Dictator’ Dan an apology 🙂 As his methods were proven to work and Gladys is implementing pretty much all of them now!

    As a parent, I feel for the Sydney parents about to endure a whole term of home schooling!!!! It was HARD.

    And Sydneysiders are about to work out that the main stream media are a pack of @rsholes, and undermining the public health messages is not helpful and just makes the public hate you!

    • RobotSenseiMEMBER

      I do note on my “smart” TV on YouTube that the ABC/SBS/9/7 news articles are suggested, but when there’s bad news on Covid in NSW the Sky”News” videos are mysteriously absent.

      Coincidence?

    • Blaming the 29 people who were out in public is helpful how? Victoria was blaming people sharing cigarette lighters last year. No one ever talks about the people getting the virus and being outside are the working poor. The closest Victoria ever got to admitting it was Brett Sutton’s comment that it infected the wrong cohort.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        They did a number of times, and set up a State funded assistance program to pay for the cost of isolating, which is still running.

  5. Missouri has 39% of its population vaccinated and the Delta variant is ripping through the population. A complete lockdown until it wiped is the only way that NSW will get it under control.

    https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/hospital-ceo-tells-vaccine-disparagers-to-shut-up-as-delta-slams-missouri/

    “Low vaccination rates in Missouri are a critical vulnerability, particularly as the highly transmissible delta variant runs rampant through the state. According to variant-tracking efforts run by researchers at Scripps Research in La Jolla, California, Missouri has the highest prevalence of the delta variant of any state. Based on limited genetic evidence as of June 23, the delta variant made up an estimated 96 percent of daily cases in the Show Me State.

    The delta variant, first identified in India, is estimated to be more than twice as infectious as the original strain of the pandemic coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that mushroomed out of Wuhan, China. There is also some evidence that suggests the virus may cause more severe cases of COVID-19.

    Vaccines are still largely protective against the delta variant—particularly against severe disease, hospitalization, and death from the infection. However, that protection requires people to actually get vaccinated. Missouri’s vaccination rate ranks 37th among states, with only 39 percent of the population fully vaccinated. And the areas now seeing surges have even lower vaccination rates. Taney and Dallas counties, for instance, have just 26 percent and 24 percent of their residents fully vaccinated, respectively.”

    • Lord DudleyMEMBER

      I’ll be in Missouri next week! My family has a higher vaccination rate than the state, so by being there we’ll be improving their vaccination percentage…

      … although we’re just going to St Louis, and cities tend to have higher vaccination rates than the rural areas.

    • “Vaccines are still largely protective against the delta variant”
      I think the question we need to ask is – what if a variant comes up that the vaccines aren’t effective against? Comparing it to the flu isn’t valid IF the virus is more lethal. The usual one a year jab and we will try to guess the variants you will get (and often get it wrong) won’t do.

      What’s the backup plan?

      • So the issue is, if the current vaccines don’t produce a good enough sterilising immunity, that is to say produce neutralising antibodies to block Sars-Cov-2 from infecting cells, then by definition you have a positive selection for virus that can escape the vaccine and still enter cells.

        The other issue is if all the vaccines work by targeting the spike protein then you are selecting (+/-) sites on the spike protein. So in a sense you are relying on the chance that any mutations will make it more difficult for the virus to enter, otherwise you’ll get a strain that fuses more easily and by definition the vaccine won’t target so well.
        This is why I am perplexed about the discussions about mixing and matching the current lot of vaccines.

        Fortunately the human body has other immune defenses, which don’t really get discussed because when your tool is a hammer (vaccine) then everything becomes a nail.

  6. Places that are closed – Greater Sydney

    The following places in Greater Sydney are directed to be closed to the public.

    S__ on premises services
    S__ services premises
    Strip clubs

    Oh the humanity! Bloke!

  7. I think we should lock down the entire nation or nuke it from orbit, It’s the only way to be sure.

  8. call me ArtieMEMBER

    As a point of reference, Melbourne’s numbers at their peak were way worse. Peak of 6800 active cases and 725 new cases identified in one day. Although the NSW pollies seem to be shilly-shallying around a bit, it’s nothing compared to the incompetence and unpreparedness shown in Vic during the big first breakout. I am from Vic, BTW

    • Very true, but remember that a huge chunk of those numbers were aged care residents without a vaccine. Most aged care residents have now been vaccinated and there are only 10 cases linked to Summit Aged Care cluster in Baulkham Hills with 4 of those being staff.

      This current NSW outbreak is pretty much all in the community without proper lockdown. We may not see the pure numbers that we saw in Melbourne, but hospitalisation (as a percentage) will definitely be higher.

      • Also, aged care facilities run incompetently by the Feds.

        Take those numbers out and Vic isn’t a million miles from NSW now (deaths aside).

    • Well, we won’t know what the peak is till we’re past it eh?

      Olaf’s post: very funny.

  9. Every-time I crack it in my group msg about the Libs and Scomo, a good mate of mine says well at least they didn’t try and bring crap up laws like Labour were going to do. Hes referencing the rolling back the franking credits for pension funds that pay no tax. – His mother has over a million in the pension, paid off her house, is widowed but set up for the rest of her life.

    At that point I just want to exit this country and remove myself.

  10. You know, at times I look at the US and wonder how their Dem vs Republican system became so hostile, dysfunctional and broken. Then I look at all the Gladys Vs Dan, Sydney Vs Melbourne bullsh!t in these comments and I start to understand exactly how it started.

      • bzunicaMEMBER

        Man Twitter. Facebook is all happy families compared to that thing. Any hint of wrong speak on Twitter and it’s a pile-on

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          Yeah Twitter is another level of vitriol. If I was a public official, I sure would care what @Bob694208008135 thought about the vaccine side-effect profile.

          • The worst part is Zuckerturd, Dorsey Bin Laden & Bill Gates now want to get involved with vaccines, as if that trio haven’t undermined humanity enough they want to f- with medical science.
            Bill couldn’t even prevent Windows from getting viral infections.

  11. MathiasMEMBER

    NSW deserves what they get.

    On the bright side, QLD can now get on with ‘Living Life’ without being attacked, which is what we should of been doing ages ago. I hope they stay in a permanent state of lockdown. For QLD, it just means peace and quiet from the bullys ;p

    The longer NSW gets shut down for the more peace and quiet it gives the rest of us.

    I love Covid. It shuts NSW up.

    Im not looking forward to half the state packing its bags and emmigrating once the borders open. I’ll be surprised if anyone stays in NSW after this.

    Im surprised our Defence Force Agencys arent involved in this one. With Foreign Interference acting upon Australia, all this confusion is a great shadow for manevolence to take hold. Maybe China will try and take over Sydney? Either way, I bet Australias Security Agencys have there Eyes open.

    Its unbelievable that the greatest traitors to Australia are the Politicians at the top.

  12. I presume the exercise in your LGA or 10km is a “closest to home” test. ie if you can’t go out of your LGA but you also can’t travel more than 10km even if you are still in your LGA>

    • Not the way I read it, it’s ‘or’ and therefore 10 km.
      ” People must stay in their Local Government Area or within 10kms of home for exercise and outdoor recreation”
      This makes sense – shopping and other essential activity other than exercise increases physical proximity and must be confined to LGA (I think) whereas exercise is only with max two of same household with no physical proximity between yourself and non-household.

      • What, so you can go further than 10km if your LGA is big enough? That doesn’t seem consistent with what they are trying to do.

        Maybe the government itself doesn’t know.

        • Yeah, that’s my read. I’ve just checked the restriction advice, far too ambiguous. I’m in Melb and unaffected but have been through it of course. Not as harsh as DLS who also had additional restrictions on LGA or postcode because of his proximity to a particularly dense outbreak. I did however get an official warning for accompanying my son when he was driving on L licence after the edict that no learner driving was allowed. My defence was that it is not a learner driver hours accumulation exercise, we both needed to go somewhere entirely legitimately and one of us needed to drive, so why not him? Hours were not even being counted in his tally. Police officer was so visibly stressed that I didn’t pursue it, it remained as a warning only and my approach would be different if it escalated beyond that.

          • Ha, I’ve been taking my son out on his Ls too this week. NSW Police said last year that that was OK (education that can’t be done at home) so I assume it still is.

    • call me ArtieMEMBER

      Oh…jeez. We mexicans have been through all this hair-splitting semantic stuff before you. In bizarre cases, not explicitly covered by the written regulations you take your chances. If you want to test the system you run the risk of meeting an police oficer (intentional) who disagrees. Then you can have your day in court. Or abide by the spirit of the regulations. Your call

  13. There’s a bit of stuff on twitter about it – most seem to think it is LGA for essential shopping, etc but the 10km is for exercise.

  14. reusachtigeMEMBER

    I had relations in a city shop with a lady looking person from Fairfield about a week ago. And over the last few days I’ve developed a really sore nut sack and cough that makes my nuts hurt. I’ve looked up covid symptoms and it seems covid can attack your nuts so considering Fairfield is a hot spot for foreign girl types should I go get tested?