NSW records 97 new COVID cases

NSW Health has recorded 97 new local COVID cases over the past 24 hours:

Of the 97 locally acquired cases reported to 8pm last night, 70 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 14 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, five are from Sydney LHD, four are from Western Sydney LHD, two are from Northern Sydney LHD and two are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD.

NSW now has around 800 active local COVID cases:

NSW covid cases

Still rising fast.

As shown in the next chart, NSW’s cases continue to grow at a slower rate than Victoria’s at the same time during its Winter-Spring outbreak last year:

NSW vs VIC Covid cases

Victoria’s outbreak much worse.

Accordingly, total active cases in NSW are lagging behind Victoria’s at the same point in time:

NSW vs VIC Covid

NSW lagging behind Victoria.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. That green line gradient is approaching infinity. Lockdown extentions until the 30th July, says the Gladyz and her health advice.

  2. TheLambKingMEMBER

    Victoria’s outbreak much worse.
    Accordingly, total active cases in NSW are lagging behind Victoria’s at the same point in time:

    Yeh, because Victoria was learning on the fly and made a heap of mistakes. It only entered stage 3 lockdown – (probably less restrictions that the current Sydney lockdowns) at about 300 cases. Stage 4 lockdowns (7 days before the peak) are where things started to trend down – and then there will be the same curve shape down the other end. Start stage 4 today and NSW will be out at about day 55, wait another week and you are looking at an 80 day lockdown (and we are day 27 – Gladys has extended lockdown for 3 weeks which gets us just short of that 55 day number, but she is banking on a stage 4 kind of slowdown when she has not implemented the controls yet!)

    You need to be comparing this lockdown with the last Victorian lockdown – but keep showing this comparison if you want show how dumb Gladys is acting!

    • How many outbreaks/lockdowns would Victoria have suffered if it took in 60% of international arrivals like NSW, rather than taking stuff all?

      How many Aussies would still be stranded overseas if NSW hadn’t been so generous taking in 3,000 arrivals a week?

      Obviously, taking in so many arrivals from overseas dramatically raises the risk of outbreaks.

      • The deputy premier of Queensland put paid to the whole stranded Aussies fallacy. I’ve got a heap of mates flying back and forth from Bali to do FIFO. It’s nonsense.

      • I’m surprised Gladys hasn’t said that only overseas residents of NSW can return home via NSW.

        That would put pressure on the other states to take their fair share.

  3. reusachtigeMEMBER

    And yesterday we had freaks on here claiming that they had heard one in four or so people being tested in Fairfield were coming up positive. LOLOLOL!!!

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      The ABC is no better than the Corporate controlled media these days.

      We need a 70/80s style of recession to bring back stories in the media, made by Common people for Common people that address the issues that Common people really care about.

      Like the need to open the pubs again,…for all Common people.

      https://youtu.be/anhALnCLkiU

  4. This is poor analysis. You are comparing an outbreak from before we learnt that the only way to deal with COVID outbreaks with certainty was go hard and go early. Victoria learnt this the hard way and we applied it in our latest lockdown which lasted 14 days. NSW did not learn and are now in a 5 week lockdown that will definitely be extended. Check out the mystery cases in the last 4 days, they have gone ballistic. They need that number to be zero for 2 weeks and at this rate NSW will never get there.

    https://infogram.com/1plrmxlq5w1k19hqpjrxnl5rvxiz6wkgvq6

  5. The covid-19 pandemic is probably the best case study I’ve ever seen in understanding how confirmation bias operates. The way people will just accept something that goes along with their beliefs almost unquestioned but something else that is contrary to their beliefs comes along and they interrogate it to the nth degree, trying to find holes in it so they can rest assured that their beliefs have held once more. It really is fascinating to watch how people react to covid news.

    • Strange EconomicsMEMBER

      Confirmation basis is all about groupthink and ignoring evidence.
      If you come from the elite eastern suburbs like all the politicians, and administrator heads.
      The overoptimistic tracing plan is based on 2 to 4 people a household, and they work from home, or in the nearby CBD.
      Fairfield is 7-8 persons per household and they work on site 30 km away such as construction.
      Exponentially more contacts.

      • Is that like the groupthink and bias of ignoring the suppressed Casula outbreak (last year and similar demographics to Fairfield) because you are part of a group willing Berejiklian to fail?

  6. Ronin8317MEMBER

    7 cases in Victoria thanks to the removalist going all the way from Sydney to Melbourne to move some furniture. W.T.F.??? In what kind of sane world should this is allowed to happen?

    • Including a guy who spent 4 hours at a packed MCG members reserve!

      This is very worrying for Victoria.

      • What is worrying to me is how quickly they relax restrictions for football compared to everything else. Given what has been observed overseas and risk management, one would roll out relaxation of rules at the MCG and Marvel slower than everything else.

      • I heard MCC members Carlton v Geelong. Be good to stick both teams in iso (until after R 23 please Gil!)

    • Arthur Schopenhauer

      A ‘Gold Standard’ world R. ‘Good as Gold’.

      It is a worry. Just as a fortnight of real winter weather arrives. (70cm of snow above 1500m.)

    • If there are unlinked cases, hopefully they have a snap lockdown fast to stop the spread. So that we don’t have to ensure multiple weeks like Sydney.

  7. You’re right Terry; it’s called belief perseverance and there are an awful lot of people in this country that would benefit from training in critical thinking skills, including our politicians and media.

  8. darkasthunder

    not sure what conclusions you can draw from the ” Active Locally Acquired Cases” graph, since they are measuring outbreaks with two very different reproductive numbers and different containment strategies.

  9. Now 8 exposure sites in Melbourne including Young and Jacksons on a Saturday afternoon and the MCG Members reserve during a Carlton match.

    Lockdown in Melbourne by the weekend?

    • You’d hope so. Darwin was lucky that the miner didn’t spread it when he hit the pub. Brisbane got theirs under control by locking down fast. Until you know how far it has already gone then you have to lock down. Better a short and hard one then dragging it out.