NSW records 170 new COVID infections

NSW Health has reported another 170 new COVID infections over the past 24 hours:

Sixty-five cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and ten cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Forty-two cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 53 cases remains under investigation.

There are currently 187 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 58 people in intensive care, 24 of whom require ventilation.

The next chart plots NSW’s daily case numbers against Victoria’s Winter-Spring outbreak last year, which saw Melbourne locked-down for 14 consecutive weeks:

New COVID cases

Australia’s two biggest COVID outbreaks compared.

If Victoria’s trajectory was replicated in NSW, daily cases would not peak for another nine days.

NSW’s active COVID cases are approaching 2,700 and are still well away from peaking:

Active COVID cases

Yet to peak.

At this rate, NSW probably won’t come out of lockdown until mid-September.

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. run to the hillsMEMBER

    Ben Roberts-Smith is in town at the moment, he’s be quite useful if the ADF deploys him out West.

  2. Ronin8317MEMBER

    According to Mark Fuller, this morning, a 19 years old tested positive to COVID-19, then went to a construction site to, even though construction was supposed to be halted in Sydney.

    The ADF should drop a bomb on the construction site.

    • Claymore’s out the front of houses should do the trick, unless the locals know how to defuse them.

    • Why not covid is no risk to him and he probably won’t get paid if he doesn’t show up. The first thing the government should have announced was a $1000 a day payment for 2 weeks for everyone that tests positive provided they isolate during that period. It would stop incidents like this and encourage people to get tested. However, there is no obvious way to get a kickback from that so it didn’t happen.

      • $1000 a day!! People would be out looks to mouth breathe right next to the infected…

    • BradleyMEMBER

      At what point will the police do policing and make examples out of these drop kicks? Hope the PORS will be in action all over Sydney this weekend as protestors fragment into local acts of idiocy. I hear Newtown is being touted as a location. Black vans will be everywhere. The Saturday tv news could be interesting for once!

    • Could be wrong but, it seems a bit staged.

      “This is the nation you are all begging for.
      Not I.

    • lol, because we don’t want Kylie and Jacki-o spreading miss information….. lmao

    • These scenarios and models have been ‘known’ from close the the beginning this outbreak. A few of the the actuary types I know have been sharing crude models with results that look little different to the more detailed modelling. The original models were pointing to early August, they now point to early October. Amusing that the press is only interested in them now… when they offer no new insights.

      Quite frustrating that’ health messaging’ did not reflect that reality… as if there own models weren’t saying the exact same thing.

    • Nothing to do with the 10 person intergenerational households of course. And today I saw HaZzard (apt name) talking about a bloke in his 60s who died at home without seeking hospital treatment. Cant for a moment imagine why that would be! (A bit of administrative inconvenience arises when you die using someone else’s Medicare card!) Just how many people are hiding behind the closed doors of those brick veneer western suburbs homes … We may be about to find out.

    • diversity isn’t their strength. to be honest, that is the fault of the british who the fijian chiefs argued needed to repatriate the indian workers to india or uk on independence … next thing you know it’s time for Col. Rabuka!

  3. Another 170 cases but 0 deaths

    What’s the CFR now?

    0.4%?

    Similar to heavily vaccinated UK

    A bit of a storm in a teacup

    • You seem to forget once the case load gets too high the health system cant cope with the load and then you do get mass fatalities. Additionally, people can’t handle long lockdowns which is why you need to go hard city-wide and early (not what Sydney did with this outbreak) to crush the curve before it gets going. All perfectly logical.

          • The CFR is the same mate 0.3% vs 0.4%

            as is the rate of hospitalisation

            Their cases are WAY higher per capita

            So tell me again why they haven’t locked down?

            Jesus, this isn’t difficult

          • Where’s your evidence? You’re just talking rubbish.

            Here is evidence to tell you what locking down does vs not locking down (eg: Sweden) in largely unvaccinated populations. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&deathsMetric=true&totalFreq=true&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&country=SWE~DNK~FIN~ISL~NOR&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
            Now tell me where is your evidence?

            Edit: You also have not addressed my point which was “You seem to forget once the case load gets too high the health system cant cope with the load and then you do get mass fatalities. Additionally, people can’t handle long lockdowns which is why you need to go hard city-wide and early (not what Sydney did with this outbreak) to crush the curve before it gets going. All perfectly logical.” So comparing these rates just shines a light on you not understanding the issue and the inappropriateness of said figures/comparisons.

          • What do you mean where’s my evidence?

            Have you heard of a fcking calculator ?

            Take the number of deaths and divide by number of cases x100

            Take the number of hospitalised and divide by number of cases x100

            What do you think your chart is showing me ?

            Add UK to the chart and explain to me why they did worse than Sweden , both before and after vaccinations

            I’m addressing your point by asking you why UK hasn’t locked down despite similar rate of deaths and hospitalisations, and more cases per capita

            Why is their health system not under stress ?

            Are you too dense to understand my point ?

          • reusachtigeMEMBER

            Oh it’s great having you back Come bloke! Just know there’s a lot of us that have always appreciated your work in destroying the fearful screamers that try so hard to shout down dissent. Good on ya! They have no profits to protect.

          • ” What do you mean where’s my evidence?”
            On the off chance you don’t understand why these numbers you are generating may not providing a complete picture, let me pose some questions:
            1 What proportion of the vaccinated population in the UK is being infected vs the unvaccinated?
            2 What are the rates of hospitalisation for those infected among the vaccinated and unvaccinated in the UK?
            3 What are the death rates for those infected among the vaccinated and unvaccinated in the UK?
            4 How does the emergence of new strains such as Delta impact on the above?
            5 Given previous C19 waves killed many of those in high-risk groups in counties that didn’t lock down (like the UK), how does this influence hospitalisation/mortality rates in subsequent waves of infection?
            6 Have there been shifts in testing behaviour in populations that have been vaccinated that may lead to under-reporting of infections (and as such inflate hospitalisation rates)?
            7 Does any of the above make comparisons of the aggregate data from Australia and the UK error prone?

            I could go on but, there’s a bit more to it than punching numbers into a calculator. There are people that do this sort of thing for a living and I prefer to listen to their advice. The use of data from Scandinavian countries (in my previous link) to explore the impacts on mortality from locking down vs not locking down was appropriate because the populations were all unvaccinated and they have similar demographics, health systems etc. Comparing data from the UK and Australia is pretty meaningless unless you can address important differences.

            The data I have from the UK suggests their hospitalisation rate is much lower with this latest wave due largely to the higher vaccination rate. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-hospital?country=GBR

            FYI – I have a lot of sympathy for those in Sydney. Especially those that can’t work from home and need meaningful support from the Morrison government to get through this. They are the victims of epic incompetence at both a federal and state government level.

        • Alex Rondelson

          The difference is that about 100,000 people took to the streets in the UK and demanded freedom. Days later Boris announced ‘Freedom Day’.

          Protests are more effective than vaccines for ending lockdowns.

          If the population wants lockdown they will get lockdown. If they want freedom they will get freedom.

  4. “I say we take off and nuke the site from orbit, it’s the only way to be sure” Ripley – Aliens.

  5. Come on man, we all know it was Trump’s fault …..

    So I notice that India seem to be getting the outbreak under control with invermectin, surprising that the rest of the world is not also doing this

    • If we gave the Bill Gates “charity” an exclusive license to produce Ivermectin, do you think the official health advice narrative might change a little?