NSW COVID infections fall for 3rd consecutive day

The media is reporting that NSW has recorded 78 new COVID infections over the past 24 hours – the lowest daily count since Saturday. 27 of those were infectious in the community.

This means that there are now around 1250 active cases in NSW:

NSW COVID cases

Still rising.

The next chart plots NSW’s current outbreak against Victoria’s Winter-Spring outbreak last year, which saw Melbourne shut down for 14 weeks:

NSW vs VIC

Victoria way ahead.

In a similar vein, the next chart plots NSW’s total active cases against Victoria’s last year:

NSW vs VIC

NSW growing more slowly.

Victoria recorded 13 new cases today – the same figure as yesterday:

VIC COVID cases

VIC new COVID cases.

This means that there are now 85 active local cases across the state:

VIC active COVID cases

Still growing.

Accordingly, the Victorian State Government has extended the state’s lockdown by a week until midnight next Tuesday.

Unconventional Economist

Comments

    • It is important that every unfortunate health event and outcome be reported. Whether a child being diagnosed with leukaemia, a 30 year old developing colonic cancer or an 18 year old with a new onset of autoimmune disease.
      https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/STROKEAHA.120.031786
      Conclusions:
      Acute ischemic stroke was infrequent in patients with COVID-19 and usually occurs in the presence of other cardiovascular risk factors. The risk of discharge to destination other than home or death increased 2-fold with occurrence of acute ischemic stroke in patients with COVID-19.
      Next alarmist post, please.

    • Lord DudleyMEMBER

      But I was assured by the lying propagandists that frequent COVID articles on this site that only fatties die of COVID and that we should let ‘er rip to kill ’em all. Anyhow, glad the correspondent is doing OK now. Interestingly, he was apparently vaccinated, which would indicate his case is fairly unusual. Being in the US (as I am), it would be Pfizer, Moderna, or J&J. I wonder which it was. J&J seems to be the less effective one.

      This line struck home for me:

      “As an Australian citizen the Australian Government has essentially said the door’s not open for you to come back,” Mr Ashton-Atkinson said.

      “In my personal opinion, it’s not being managed as well as it can be.”

      Yup. It’s an absolute indictment of the nation. Two of my close family have died in the last few months in Oz (father and brother in law), but I’m OK with not being able to go back for that in a pandemic; video-conferencing is very good now and certainly helped. What I’m not OK with is Australians who are in direct distress not being able to return.

      • Majority of them are in India, by choice to go home, knowing the consequences, the same that know migrating here means your parents stay in home country, so less and less people give a sh1t

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        Unvaccinated fatties die. Vaccinated people are dying from ADE related Covid effects. That is the theory why more vaccinated people are dying in the UK compared to unvaccinated.

        • TheLambKingMEMBER

          That is the theory why more vaccinated people are dying in the UK compared to unvaccinated.

          No, you misleading anti-vaxxer – it is a trick of maths. The vaccine is not 100% effective! Lets do some maths:

          – Lets say there are 1000 90+ year olds in England
          – with 90% vaccination rates at that age group – 900.
          – The vaccinated fatality rate will be 3% still in that age group so 30 deaths in the vaccinated (out of 900).
          – The unvaccinated (100) might have a fatality rate of 20% – 20 deaths in the unvaccinated (out of 100).

          So idiot antivaxxers shout that ‘more vaccinated people are now dyeing than un-vaccinated’ – when in reality if the population was un-vaccinated then instead of 50 deaths there would have been 200. (note, actual % have been made up to show what is happening.)

          • kiwikarynMEMBER

            Lets ignore cases and only look at people who end up in hospital (after all, if you’re not sick who cares?)
            This is UK Govt data – Cases admitted to hospital with Covid Delta variant – 1904 of which 1,182 were unvaccinated. So more unvaccinated in hospital.
            However, Deaths were 257 of which only 92 were unvaccinated.
            Which gives a Case Fatality Rate for the Unvaccinated of 7.7% – Vaccinated is 22%

      • It is predominantly the fat and old that are dying. In everyone’s favourite covid horror story Sweden that didn’t lock down, a total of 9 children <20 years old have died since the pandemic started. That is approximately 0.25 deaths per 100,000 children per annum. To put that in perspective the suicide rate for children in Australia is 0.6/100K for 0-14 years old; 8.9/100K for 15-17 years old and 16.1/100K for 18-24 years old. The covid death rate is negligible in comparison to the suicide rate. In addition children from disadvantaged homes have largely zero chance of any effective home schooling happening, not to mention their family incomes are more likely to be hit from job losses during the lockdowns and this will effect there health over the long term.
        Fat and old people still deserve protection from the virus, however, most of the sacrifices are being made by poor children and poor workers. There needs to be some proper analysis done on the long term damage that is being done from the measure that governments are taking to combat covid. If there is significant damage being done to the welfare of children, which I believe there clearly is, and that damage is greater than the risk to them from covid itself which it probably is then we need to ask is it worth sacrificing the youth to save the diseased and aged?

        • kiwikarynMEMBER

          How do you know we havent? As any mention of vaccine side effects gets you struck off the Internet. Everybody is too scared to even suggest that the vaccines might have anything to do with severe Covid or death. Govt and medical establishment are busy burying any information that might possibly indicate a problem. Much like they refused to admit that vaccines were causing deaths from blood clots until the Scandinavian countries finally put their foot down and suspended the vaccines. And what is to stop the authorities from simply claiming that it is the Covid variant that has become more deadly, rather than admit that its only more deadly because everyone is vaccinated and its ADE?

  1. FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

    Not sure what the point is really in comparing to Vicco’s 2020 outbreak/lockdown?

    I mean clearly all the Gold Stardard bulldust is out the window and, if anything, these two are vying for the wooden spoon.

    If you pulled up a similar chart with Syd compared to any of West Oz’s last lockdown results, you’d have a clear winner..

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        ahh if that’s the prism we’re looking through i can understand. If it’s to imply that NSW is better at managing the roos’ then i’d refer to my wooden spoon comment.

        Mind you, both still better than almost any country bar nz in the world. so there’s that. Just need the vaccines… Luckily it ain’t a race according to scotty and everyone loves lockdowns and economic devastation so we’ll be apples.

        • I would like to see the comparison stripping out the aged care and health infections last year in Victoria. Most aged care residents are vaccinated along with the majority of medical staff, so we would expect fewer cases in these settings for NSW.

          • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

            Probably a better comparison is Viccos current lockdown compared with Sydney. Same variant, similar vaccine rates, different methods and timing, both armed with the same information.

            It looks very likely Victoria will be out much earlier with lower health and economic impacts.

      • “It’s an interesting point of comparison. That is all.”

        Unfortunately it’s a ludicrous and biased comparison that has been going on for well over a year almost weekly.

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-19/victorians-wait-for-news-on-possible-lockdown-extension/100302798

        Burnet Institute epidemiologist Mike O’Toole, who spent months analysing Victoria’s outbreak last year said “the Burnet Institute had since studied the effectiveness of different levels of restrictions and found the strictest rules, like keeping people within five kilometres of home, had led to a downward trend in cases, whereas less restrictive rules had only had a “flattening” effect.”

        Seemingly Gladys and Co didn’t choose to access this invaluable research. Or if they did perhaps they thought they knew better?

        Where is the MB commentary that but for NSW laxness, arrogance and penchant for playing politics in a pandemic, Vic would not be in this current lockdown, nor the previous one seeded from SA. Whereas the vitriol aimed at Dan Andrews in 2020 was enough to kill off a room-full of Murdoch ‘journalists’……

        • A big part of the hatred towards Dan was based on how they got there, not just what they did afterwards. Critical state quarantine staff decided via diversity tick box, tens of millions in public funds diverted to private security firms for almost no service rendered, clear lies in relation to what outside help was offered. the outcome of course was VIC citizens thrust into one of the harshest lockdown regimes on the planet. Then as a cherry on top, collective amnesia of all high ranking public servants during a formal inquiry (which should have been enough to warrant immediate resignations once the initial crisis was over…. but of course that wasn’t the case)

          Old Dan and his govt deserve most of what he got and he copped it from all sides, not just news corp. Would the opposition have been any better? In all probably, no, but that is irrelevant to genuine criticism for those currently in charge.

          At the end of the day, pre COVID, this is the same collective bunch of scumbags (state and federal) whom could not undertake the most basic of infrastructure projects without a major dose of incompetence, political bias, corruption or all 3. And yet here we are expecting that their management of a national health crisis would be any different?

  2. BornwildMEMBER

    Victoria just got unlucky with cases going to super-spreader events – MCG, AAMI and the Euros. Might be time to rethink stadium restrictions e.g. make it mandatory to be vaccinated or have a covid test or wear a mask. This delta will probably not be eliminated – its leaking everywhere

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      Also, actually space people out properly in stadiums, not funnel them all into the same areas and consider it covid safe because you’ve hit the maximum numbers. Also, just keep the numbers in stadiums down until we’ve got adequate vaccine supply so that everyone can get jabbed. Also, many people really don’t give a fck about watching people chase a ball and especially not if it’s gonna indirectly put you out of work.

    • Victoria just got unlucky, what a load of rubbish. Our leaders are slow learners. Game zero in Italy last year showed what large sporting crowds can do. Basically it seeded the infections across Southern Europe. Melbourne has a temperate to Mediterranean climate and somewhat similar climate in winter, did we really think we would be that different?

        • Lord DudleyMEMBER

          But if you don’t give them their circuses, they’ll either start eating each other, or start looking at their life and drawing conclusions about why it’s like it is. They might even act on those conclusions. Both of these possibilities are bad for stability and profits.

          Sportsball spectatoring is absolutely crucial to keep bored young men engaged and out of trouble.

    • HadronCollision

      This very thing is being discussed over at my team’s footy forum, and apparently at AFL.
      Staggered entry times, and (finally, FINALLY) opening the full stadia so people can spread out (because, you know, closing L4 at the G and cramming everyone into 1/4 of the ground is totes smart) plus no food / beverage service inside, plus masks 100% of time.

      Our footy board mentioned having say 1/2 a ground and separate entries for the vaccinated.

  3. I think this has a while to run yet in NSW.
    Up to 41 of the 78 cases from yesterday were out in the community (38 confirmed and 3 under investigation).
    There are still 178 cases from the past week that remain unlinked to any source and 70 from the week before.
    A bit of inside info – Contact tracers are absolutely struggling to get on top of this. They are only able to link about 12 unknown cases each day.

    NSW Health are now advising that ‘secondary close contacts’ must isolate and get tested (i.e. a close contact of a close contact). Previously, the advice was to monitor for symptoms.
    https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/factsheets/Pages/advice-secondary-close.aspx

    • Yes – Chant and Berejiklian have emphasised that the number infectious in the community is the more relevant number for the future trajectory of the outbreak, and it has barely budged from its highest point.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      I honestly don’t think they’ll lick it before Christmas with current settings and compliance. And it’s possibly pretty short odds they won’t eliminate this time in NSW at all.

      • No, they probably won’t. A hard Stage 4 lockdown is out of the question unless it absolutely rips. Gladys will be lucky to survive if that happens. I foresee a lot of vaccines being redistributed to NSW.

        On the bright side, it will probably drag on long enough to keep the punters angry at ScoMo come election time.

        • Nah. He doesn’t hold a syringe mate. Nor does he build a quarantine centre.

          Everything that has come to pass is the fault of others, and he together with his media backers will see to it that voters are very clear on that. He will paint himself as the leader who led us out of the shadow of the valley of death.

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      NSW Health are now advising that ‘secondary close contacts’ must isolate and get tested (i.e. a close contact of a close contact)

      Wait. What? Vic has been doing this since lockdown 2! Wow. This is one of the things that stops the spread!

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