NSW covid cases surge by 112

NSW Health has recorded another 112 new COVID infections across the state over the past 24 hours:

Of the 112 locally acquired cases reported to 8pm last night, 84 are from South Western Sydney Local Health District (LHD), 16 are from South Eastern Sydney LHD, 7 are from Western Sydney LHD and 5 are from Nepean Blue Mountains LHD.

There are currently 63 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 18 people in intensive care, four of whom require ventilation.

There are now around 620 active local infections across NSW with the trend worsening:

NSW COVID

Cases rising fast.

Here’s how NSW’s current outbreak is now tracking against Victoria’s winter-spring outbreak last year:

NSW daily COVID cases

Tracking just below Victoria’s 2020 outbreak.

More to come…

Unconventional Economist
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Comments

  1. reusachtigeMEMBER

    That Dr Chunt really sticks her nose up at some of those questions. I could imagine her wishing to wave away some of those lower people.

    • “Dr Chant said the suburbs of high risk are Fairfield, Smithfield, Bossley Park, Fairfield Heights, Fairfield West, Wakeley, Bonnyrigg, Glenfield and West Hoxton”.

      The Migrant zones.
      The incubation hub & transmission vector of the virus to Australians. Not just an economic and social risk but also a clear & present bio security risk.

      Vast third world ghettos full of foreign nationals on PR & TR. Over 1.6 million in Sydney alone.
      Living & working illegally. Falsified identities.
      Living in crowded squalor.
      Faithful replicas of their Guangzhou, Mumbai, Cairo & Dhaka & Kathmandu slums of origin.

      👉🏾Australia had the chance a year ago to cancel many of the 1.9m foreign nationals on PR & almost all of the 1.8 m on TR visas – and repatriate them back to their home country.
      They are all foreign nationals, NOT our welfare or healthcare burden.

      We had the chance to stop the foreign national PR coming back in to reinstate their Centrelink benefits.
      But no – cultural cringe & so over 140,000 foreign national PR & TR allowed into Australia since last March 2020. Infected Indians bringing in the new & more virulent virus strains. Overloading quarantine.

      And the 1.7 million TR here on pretext visas were allowed to stay in their falsified visas pretexts – despite having no funds, not attending classes, no actual job, in blatant breach of their COe.

      Now if Australian was say China, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan, Dubai, Israel or any other country actimg to our national interest & bio security needs …

      .. we would have prevented all non citizen foreign national from entry until Australians were vaccinated.

      We would have cordoned off these migrant slums of Sydney and issued all non Australian PR & TR with ‘stay in your ghetto’ orders until they could be vetted & deported.

      We would have had visible labelling & electronic tagging of all the non Australian migrants as a bio security risk.
      -/-

      Will the Australian government now act to protect a large unvaccinated Australian population from the virus spread from imported & now locally transmitted world migrant guestworkers spread?

  2. reusachtigeMEMBER

    That Dr Chant really sticks her nose up at some of those questions. I could imagine her wishing to wave away some of those lower people with just a journalists degree.

    • chuckmuscleMEMBER

      “this could go on for a while if we are training the virus by rushing the vaccines”

      Isn’t this kind of thinking considered heresy on this website? Repent please. But get your jab first.

  3. Ronin8317MEMBER

    I have followed the COVID-19 numbers since it first started, and there is a simple formula that remains consistent. Uncontrolled spread of COVID follows this rule : Number of cases today = Number of cases yesterday * 1.5. South West Sydney is having this kind of spread even under lockdown, which means people there are not following the rules at all.

    They need to lockdown certain area in Fairfield LGA ASAP, as in ‘no shops allowed to open at all’ lockdown, nobody allowed out on the street, and food delivered by people in full PPE only. If that’s done, it’ll be over in 2 weeks. Locking down the rest of NSW makes no sense because it won’t stop the spread.

      • Indeed – the Delta variant needs to be treated as a new disease.

        We can’t say we weren’t warned. 3 months ago India told us it’s 3x more infectious with 9x the viral load of the original virus.

        We did nothing, cos we’re the lucky country.

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        The R0 number is not a constant. It is a variable that depends on the virus and the condition for transmission. A lockdown should reduce the R0 to below 1 if everyone is following government direction. Obviously, it is not happening.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          Yep. Easier with an Ro of 2.5 than 8!

          Back of the envelope Rt looks to be around 1.8 for NSW.

    • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

      Ronin, just out of interest:
      ‘There are currently 63 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 18 people in intensive care, four of whom require ventilation.

      There are now around 620 active local infections across NSW …’
      So, 63/620 is roughly 10% hospitalisation rate. 18/620 is 3% in intensive care. How does that compare to any of the stats you’ve been watching? just asking

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        Unfortunately, the percentage of people requiring hospitalization is somewhat pointless because we don’t know the number of infected. We only know about people who get tested. I suspect the increase in number of younger people in hospital reflected a much larger population that is infected, rather than the strain being more deadly in younger people.

        The only data that matters right now is this one.

        https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210513/over-_99-percent-hospitalized-2021-covid-patients-unvaccinated

        99% of those hospitalized in the US right now are unvaccinated. Australia may end up with the army forcing everyone to take an AstraZeneca jab, at gun point.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          🙂 The Army!? There are no local Party Cadres to round people up mate. Wrong place for that. Wouldn’t work in the Culture.

          Better to make vaccination compulsory for Bunnings entry, property inspections, sporting events and Medicare rebates.

        • That’s from May. Pretty sure the recent stats aren’t as good for the vaccinated thanks to the newer variant(s).

        • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

          Thanks Ronin, really interesting. I note the article did not give any data about infected people with only one vaccine dose. It seems to be saying one vaccine shot is about as useful as having none at all. Which is contrary to some other articles out there which claim some reasonable efficacy after only one shot. It would have been handy if the article had provided a breakdown for those with only one vaccine jab.

          Either way, i agree it will be one of the key stats to watch going forward, ie unvaccinated deaths vs vaccinated deaths.

  4. Lord DudleyMEMBER

    The slope on that green line is not good. Although I’m salty about Australians in general, widespread avoidable death by pandemic after vaccine rollout mismanagement by corrupt morons isn’t something I’d wish on the population.

    What can be done? Strict Sydney lockdowns? Will that work with the Delta variant? I guess it can be tried, but if it doesn’t work, the next options are bad. Let ‘er rip, or continued somewhat weaker lockdown to slow the spread for months.

    What a mess

    • Really strict household limits by visitors, including family, except for allowable reasons (carer, etc).

      No regional travel – no flights ex Syd for BNK and the like except with strict exemption control.

      From today.

      Shut down Hardly Normal and their ilk. Bunnings only for trade (go get a Powerpass quick!). Etc etc.

      Up the response from Crimestoppers dob-ins (yep, that’s what it might take to stop some people). How’s the poker party in Marrickville. No masks, I think 15 people. Jeepers.

      Did I hear correctly Chant say that health workers – Drs, nurses, pharmacists etc – are going to work with Covid symptoms (who turn out to have covid). Deary me.

      They’re going to need NSWKeeper. Lucky we have the PM for NSW in the Lodge.

        • BradleyMEMBER

          My tip is to let the police rip. They have a water cannon they have never used and tear gas, batons and tasers. I saw what they could do on top of Mt Panorama in the 80’s on innocent bike fans as they formed Roman style phalanxes and beat the daylights out of people. Even those sleeping in their tents! Footage of this in Bondi and Fairfield would see recalcitrant’s stay home I reckon.

          • Footage of that in Fairfield would be likened to the Cronulla riots and deemed racialist.

    • Yep total Fubar but therein lies opportunity
      Wonder just how many oxygen concentrators there are in NSW
      Pretty simple to build so maybe that could be a good backyard business for tech minded Aussies. About time high tech Australia had its day in the sun, unfortunately I suspect they (high tech Aussies) are so used to being taken back behind the woodshed that they’ll just run back there as a sort of conditioned response to crises.

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Rt 1.8. That’s not good.

    It gets NSW to ~9800 cases per day in 12 days, if personal movement continues in the current patterns and the transmissibility is maintained.

    Even if they get it down to Rt 1.5, that’s still ~4600 cases per day in 12 days.

  6. It’s got into the same sort of third world migrant ghetto areas as it did in Melbourne last year and that means 500 plus daily cases before long.

    Gold standard LNP f**k ups all round.

  7. Update from my Paramedic brother who is on day 1 of 14 day isolation. Negative first test.

    The patient he treated was from Fairfield. Now in ICU.

    Patient called 000 saying she had a migraine. Said no to COVID-19 screening questions so was deemed low risk and they went in without adequate PPE (only facemask and eye shields). Bro got there and she had a heaving dry cough, 39.7 temp and O2 sats 85 and dropping. 6 other residents in the house now likely to get it.
    This is why Gladys and Kerry were going on about how important it is to tell the truth about your symptoms and movements – people are scared to say they think they have it and they put health professionals at risk.

    There are now 13 paramedics in iso for 14 days from my brothers station alone.

  8. Where is The Resident Idiot with claims of no young people/only fat slobs getting it/I don’t know anyone who has had it or anyone who knows anyone who has had it **

    ** This is like saying : “I don’t know anyone who has been murdered/has HIV/has broken their arm, nor do I know anyone who knows anyone who has had X/Y/Z, ergo it doesn’t happen”

  9. DodgydamoMEMBER

    Eid al-Adha 2021 will begin in the evening of
    Monday, 19 July. Basically like Christmas for the rest of us… Good luck Sydney! 🤞

  10. It’s wrong to compare Melb wave 2 with this current Sydney outbreak. In Melbourne wave 2 Dan was being criticized for not opening up quick enough by everyone. Gladys was in the opposite position with people begging her to lock down and she chose to delay it. You you chart it against Melbourne last outbreak.

  11. Closing schools does far more long term damage to children than letting it rip. The really vulnerable have already been vaccinated, it is long past time to abandon a zero covid strategy and treat it as any other flu.

    • Could you kindly clarify/stratify “really vulnerable” on health/age lines and provide a citation rate for vaccinate rates by those strata.

      The NSW RACF death was unvaccinated. This implies there are numbers of RACF unvaccinated. orly?

      Cheers.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Really vulnerable, you mean ScoMo and kids in private high school who got the Pfizer?

      The three month wait for the second dose of AZ means most of our vulnerable population is still waiting on that second doese, since the mass vaccination campaign only started in May.

  12. I’ve had two separate client conference calls with Indian clients crying as they describe the COVID crisis in March and April, and I’ve had a client in South Africa say he has 10 acquaintances who’ve died of COVID since end-April….

    Then I talk to my clients in Australia and NZ and they say “oh, I’m not taking the vaccine, there’s no COVID here, I don’t trust the vaccines etc etc…

    Problem is, graveyards are filling up with people who said it wouldn’t happen to them, and if you delay getting the vaccine, when offered, you may not get it in time when you want it.

    Personally, I think people would be crazy not to take the mRNA vaccines. I’ve got my shots and zero regrets