NSW COVID cases soar by 239

NSW Health has reported a record 239 new locally acquired COVID infections over the past 24 hours:

Of these locally acquired cases, 113 are linked to a known case or cluster – 88 are household contacts and 25 are close contacts – and the source of infection for 126 cases is under investigation.

Eighty-one cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 22 cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Sixty-six cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 70 cases remains under investigation.

Two more deaths were reported, both elderly.

182 COVID-infected people are in hospital with 54 in ICU.

The next chart plots NSW’s current outbreak against Victoria’s Winter-Spring outbreak last year, which saw Melbourne shut down for 14 consecutive weeks:

New COVID cases

Australia’s two biggest outbreaks compared.

As a comparison, Victoria’s daily infections did not peak for another 10 days.

Finally, the next chart plots active cases across both jurisdictions with NSW surpassing 2500:

Active COVID cases

Still yet to peak.

NSW is looking at another 6 weeks of lockdown based on these numbers.

Unconventional Economist

Comments

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      I reckon Christmas/january or until they get vacc rates well and truly up. Or unless they actually lock down.

      Vicco only peaked cos they went into full-scale hardcore lockdown.

      My base case is they’ll be forced into much heavier restrictions/curfews as the crisis escalates.

      • That’ll require lifting all the Centrelink requirements again and I can’t see the federal LNP doing that.

        Sydney could quite easily be in lockdown until summer if this really gets going.

          • I don’t think that many people leave the safety of the aircon in their McMansions in that sort of heat anyway, and it is not like they have a garden left after they have squeezed a 40sq house onto a 420sqm block, so life would be as normal for them, the only thing they would miss out on would be spending 4 hours in traffic going to the nearest beach to get sunburnt.


          • the only thing they would miss out on would be spending 4 hours in traffic going to the nearest beach to get sunburnt.

            Maybe in a few years time those LGAs will see a drop in skin cancer deaths as a result of the lockdown extending for months on end.

        • If they don’t employ measures that change current trajectory of doubling case numbers every 7 days, they will exceed Victorian outbreak numbers very soon. If that happens, I think federal LNP won’t have any choice but to provide more support, although I’m sure they’ll give it another name so they can keep saying Jobkeeper is over.

    • It’s going exponential. Permanent lockdown measures until vaccination levels hit 75% or more.

  1. There were 65 cases on 15th July, there were 124 cases on 22nd July – very close to consistently doubling every week, with no sign of a slowdown. Without a change, they’ll be getting very close to 1000 cases per day after another 14 days.

  2. DodgydamoMEMBER

    NSW look to stand a chance of catching up to the orange Vic numbers from last year, which would make for a similar length lockdown. Take care of yourselves up there, lockdown is not fun ☹️

  3. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    3 Sydney hospitals have now suspended elective operating to allow for critical care capacity.

    Thisisfine.jpg

    • TheLambKingMEMBER

      3 Sydney hospitals have now suspended elective operating to allow for critical care capacity.

      BJesus. Just follow Dan’s plan that finally worked! (implemented about day 48.)

      Stop all elective surgery! It is ELECTIVE. It adds to movement. It takes away nurses who can be testing and vaccinating.

      • Elective is a broad term, my brother is a neurosurgeon and possibly biased but argues its elective as in you’re not going to die without it, but for those off work and waiting for surgery or in chronic pain maybe not so much. He’s still catching up from last years bans on surgery, wait times in public are a joke as it is.

      • It takes away nurses who can be testing and vaccinating.

        I remember knowing a married couple who were both nurses in elective surgery theatres in Vic last year – when elective surgery was stopped, they were simply without work, as it was difficult for them to transfer.

        • Yes – those critical skills of bullying their own junior nurses and any Doctor not game enough to take a swing at them, being able to measure to the microsecond at 2:50pm that “there is no time left for that case, so the theatre needs to be closed” and going through a box of chocolate muffins faster than a locust plague in a wheat field sure aren’t as transferable as they used to be …

        • I’m sure they still got paid their salary.

          If not serves them right for swindling the system as contractors….

      • And most of the world – very few countries continue with Jury trials – even many / most western countries have moved past them.

  4. What we are dealing with…….fascinating……….it is becoming obvious that practically everyone in the UK and the US , vaccinated and un-vaccinated is going to be infected by the Delta strain, it just depends on the hospitalisation rate taking into account re-infection and whether breakthrough infections proceed to Long Covid

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02039-y

    • That is an interesting article on the molecular mechanisms by which the virus enters cells and replicates and evades the host immune response.
      It says nothing about any geographical restrictions limiting universal infection to the UK and US though.

    • I think you are right. There is no possibility of “herd immunity” in the sense of some people avoiding exposure altogether (which happens in the case of some other diseases like measles). In the end, everyone is going to be exposed to this. But, the government arguably has an obligation to make an acceptable vaccine available to anyone who wants it, before they get exposed.

      • Frank DrebinMEMBER

        That’s the governments only duty in this case, as opposed to setting an arbitrary 70,80 or 90% vaccination rate.

        If they have made the vaccine available to everyone who wants it then they need to open up.

        The hidden mental health epidemic is going to be worse than the Covid epidemic methinks.

    • Mr SquiggleMEMBER

      Yes, heard immunity is starting to shape as a potential busted flush. I’ll just keep watching the UK and see how it plays, we will know better by Christmas

  5. Arthur Schopenhauer

    There it is, the (0,1) point of the NSW exponential function.

    Gold Standard Biology 🧪.

  6. C.M.BurnsMEMBER

    weeeeeeeeeeeeeee

    i guess we are seeing the spike from Eid last week. Can’t wait to see the spike next week from the weekend march of the logically challenged

    • I’m at work like everyone else righteously outraged by the protestors.
      I wonder how it feels if you are locked in a 2 bedroom apartment with 3 kids and not enough computer devices to home school properly while you have no job or income and mouths to feed.

      • Lord DudleyMEMBER

        It would feel pretty crap. However, I haven’t seen any indication that this was the demographic marching. Post images if you’ve got ’em, but all the signs I’ve seen photos of (and I’ve looked) say stuff like “unmask the truth”, “covid was patented”, “I believe in Jesus, not the vaccine”, “FREEDOM”, various screeds about government control, and so on. Also look at the photos; hardly anyone masked, hardly anyone distancing.

        I feel sorry for those doing it tough, but considering the lack of “can’t afford rent and food during lockdown”, “we are struggling”, etc… signs, unless presented with evidence otherwise, I’m gonna say they simply weren’t there.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      That will explains why so many cases “cannot be linked”, doesn’t it? To quote from Dr House : “Everybody Lies”.

      • Yep, these people are the same who cheat every system in this country….on the last night of EID I saw more cars parked outside houses in close proximity of each other, was going to call cops but I couldn’t pick which house was holding it. They probably parked in a street far from the house holding the celebrations

      • Can you safely tell NSW health about your uncle and cousin living illegally in the back room of your house? Didn’t think so.

      • She will be gentle. She will start with Labor electorates, followed by the Gucci and Versace stores. Guided by health experts I’m sure. Makes complete sense.

  7. This has only just started. I warned friends weeks back that Sydney will be lost to the pandemic. You only had the watch the recovered CCTV footage from Bondi Junction Westfields (ground zero) and see patient zero infect the unsuspecting victims by just casually walking past them in Myers and elsewhere in the complex. Delta variant is totally airborne and super super contagious.

    • And yet the NSW government continued to behave as if nothing had changed.
      When the details of what has hapenned behind the scenes come out it is going to be ugly.

    • COVID recovery being managed by the same “experts” who spent months telling us masks were unnecessary as there was no evidence the virus was “airborne”. I’m filled with confidence.

  8. Lol Chant re many younger people getting infected:
    “”The age profile we are seeing – we have to also remember that the communities of south-western and western Sydney are also particularly young.”

    Racist stereotypes aside, I didn’t realise those parts had become a third world country going purely off sign. Indicator of a sound housing policy if this quote was actually correct.

  9. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    So is this “Construction opening” gunna let me do my 2 renos in North and East Ryde after Saturday.
    Ermo is in the Parra LGA (a new “Red Zone”) and my 2 quoted jobs are in the Ryde council LGA (Not a Red Zone)

    Am I shut down or not!?

    What if the customers don’t want me there anyway?

    The Whole bloody thing is a debacle!

    Im happy to stay at home if deemed necessary but they are not mandating it.
    Is this just to avoid compensation/financial assistance getting “out of hand”?

    Fken hell!

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Under the current rule, you can’t leave the area. However I’m pretty sure Ryde will be added to the lockdown LGA Red Zone before next week.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      you could argue plumbing is essential work if questioned otherwise your stuck in your LGA

  10. Swampy nearest the pin of Oct 8th is looking like it’s in a greenside bunker.

    Maybe late Oct.

    Where’s the ring of steel? Good grief.

    I wonder if there’ll be a move against Gladys.

    She’s just fibbing now…
    Ms Berejiklian defended the current settings, denying that her government was introducing restrictions too incrementally. “We have harsher restrictions in place than any state has ever had,” the Premier said, noting mobility data showed the “vast majority” of citizens were doing the right thing.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Instead of adopting the measure from Victoria incrementally, just do it all at once!!

      • Well yes, but the point is she’s telling a mistruth. Vic Stage 4 were obviously harsher. Where is the rabid media on this?

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          Ahh but it’s the “delta variant”. How can we possibly compete against the fabled “delta variant”!?

          No one has ever controlled the Delta, except for they who shall not be named!

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Dan the Man is doing a pretty good job… Oh fkn, I said Dan. Oh fkn, said Dan again. Fkn!

        • darklydrawlMEMBER

          Yep, that was my thought too. Also in the middle of the Melbourne lockdown that was no ‘single’s bubble’ either. That was introduced later. She’s F.o.S!

    • kierans777MEMBER

      > I wonder if there’ll be a move against Gladys.

      The Sky News After Dark crowd are calling for her to be replaced. Their cries will get louder and louder.

      • Well yes but not in the interests of controlling this, because they want it opened it up no doubt?

        Better get a few rounds in before NNSW is affected. Pah, I’ll have put a few ks in for you this weekend boom.

  11. Lots being said about the need for “full lockdown” but often zero commentary about exactly what that means.

    I’m no expert on the subject but ABC’s 7:30 did a small segment on it with Laura the other day. They suggested that NSW was now little different to VIC, even harsher in multiple instances? She then hit up the epidemiologist who suggested tougher measures as to what exactly they were and he babbled on about nothing…. no answer.

    Can hardly accuse the ABC Laura Tingle of being a Gladys apologist so what’s the answer then? Put aside the speed to which harsh restrictions where put in place (that is now a moot point for which blame will be appointed later). If the on paper the current restrictions and no different than VIC, if the mobility data suggests the same…. then carrying on about harsher restrictions is not a solution…. it’s an uninformed rant.

    Who are the people
    What are the exact circumstances of the “people in the community” transmissions
    how many are asymptomatic and carrying out actual essential work? (vs dip shits)
    given the size of the infection spread and the fact it’s delta, is it even possible to get the cases down without literally closing everything?

    None of that data appears readily available.

    • Allow me to step in.

      AFAIAA, some of this is yet to be implemented in totality across all of Greater Sydney. Do you disagree?

      All LGAs limited to 5k movement
      Exercise 1 hr a day
      Shopping once per day
      Caring seek/give
      Work if you can’t work from home
      Curfew overnight
      Ring of steel around Sydney

      Melbs crew, what have I missed.

      Stick me on to mingle with Tingle.

      https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/-/media/ResearchandEvidence/DPC-COVID19–Stage-4-Stay-At-Home-Restrictions–Metropolitan-Melbourne–Stakeholder-Pack-l-1008.pdf
      https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/updates/coronavirus-covid-19/premiers-statement-business-restrictions

      • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

        You’re up there. And proper enforcement. Fining people and moving them on in parks if they’re not exercising. Fining people for standing around and having a coffee together. Fining folks for walking without a mask on. Like make it extremely fcking clear that the only reasons to be out is a) for actual essential work b) be the one person getting essential supplies (at supermarket only, no click and collect sh1t) c) one hour of exercise, by yerself (or one member of household).

        Enforcement is what matters. If folks think it’s a party, they’ll take a mile. But that’s what Melbourne had peak lockdown last year. It was hell.

        • I do hear that the Melbourne experience was hell, but hard to calibrate given what we are now all conditioned for vs then. What is the data telling us, are the rates of infringements issued far less in NSW vs VIC? Are the rates of mobility around the city higher or lower?

          From my observation, sitting here in inner west Sydney, it feels like the original lockdowns, CBD dead, shops mostly empty, the parks/ play playgrounds are open vs being closed back then? but again, haven’t seen any evidence that this is even a singular let alone repeated infection location. Otherwise, everything else appears to be a lockdown. if 99% of the infections are from concentrated areas of the state, then CCP enforcement for 100% of the population might sound tough, but does it achieve anything now?

          • Ronin8317MEMBER

            Portion of people obeying the lockdown x infection rate = rate of increase. Delta is about 3 times for infectious than the original, so using a back of the envelope number of 10, more than 10% of people are not obeying the lockdown.

          • Arthur Schopenhauer

            Comparing the current NSW outbreak to the current VIC outbreak is interesting. In Victoria, the Delta variant spread faster than NSW (higher Rt). And the Victorian lock down measures have been more effective, lowering the Rt below 1 and preventing increased spread in Victoria.

            Hard and fast lockdowns work, as the Victorian Government is empirically showing.

            Don’t tell Leith. He’s still angry at Dan for making him stay home with the Kids and his Missus 12 months ago.

          • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

            I’d say it’s definitely doable, just my opinion of course – without having access to any data, but you really need the will to do it. From top down and collectively.

            I do think melb/vic have a sort of collective “muscle memory” in dealing with it this time, folks generally just aware of what to do, and generally willing to do it because they know it works. And I don’t mean that in a smug way, just that there is a sort of collective “ah fck it, let’s just get on with it then” because we’ve been there.

            Whereas I feel like the folks of Sydney are going through what Melbourne was going through last year, and that is reflected in the angst in comments I’m reading everywhere “what are the rules” “can I drive 12km to pick up a coffee and then visit my personal trainer in a park, even though they live in a different LGA but the park is within 10km for both of us”? Same [email protected] we were all arguing about back then.

      • Not sure to be honest, the narrative seems to be that most of those have been implemented (CBD closed, 1 trip to shops per day for 1 person, no household visits etc.) and some were even stricter (i.e construction closures, testing of critical workers every 3 days etc).

        Also multiple ‘medical’ voices suggesting that some measures are purely for ‘messaging’ and will have little impact on spread itself.

        All of those additional measures (like any law) only work if people actually do it and if the spread is actually occurring directly due to those measures and not in another fashion (i.e is there any evidence that people have contracted or spread covid while on a run 6.5km from their house….. if no, then running 5km will not achieve a thing.) If the transmission is people happily ignoring restrictions or people whom are exempt from them…. new restrictions wont matter, it’s theatre.

        As I said. not an expert here, don’t have the data either to make an education guess. But the NSW govt is claiming that it’s measures are stage 4 harsh, they seem to have some backing that the are (including a non LNP friendly press segment) and in the three instances where I have heard a reporter ask (either Dan or a medical expert) what tangible additional measures are needed…. you get partisan rant or babble instead

        Not sure where to from here but it’s clearly not as ‘simple’ as a politician at a presser or the reddit crew claim.

        • All fair points, 5km is nice and simple, innit. Need big dumb rules for situations like this, I suspect
          Not much room for nuance driven by data

      • TheLambKingMEMBER

        -Masks mandatory indoors (except home) & outdoors
        -Retail was click+collect
        -stopping all elective surgery
        -all sport stopped (closed tennis courts, golf courses, I saw basketball rings covered)
        -playgrounds shut (equipment was tied up and taped)
        -police doing checks on main routes enforcing curfew
        -police doing spot-checks on 5k distance.
        -police manning ‘ring of steel’

        • TheLambKingMEMBER

          And it was the whole ‘greater’ city + a couple of surrounding areas, not just a few LGA’s. How do they know who is supposed to be only going 5k and who is not?

          Lots of in-consistent messages and ambiguity. Dan was called ‘Dictator Dan’ because he was clear, concise and firm. Yes, some of the measures, in isolation, may not make ‘much’ difference, but together it was a consistent set of rules as a group, consistently messaged and enforced that worked.

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            Just wait and see what happens when the horse-punchers have to get a permit to travel to work outside of their 5k and outside curfew.

    • Fruit Tingle is making a real hash of things on 7:30 she is about as warm as a paddle pop. Bring back Leigh now.

    • This article points out a very very very inconvenient truth for the powers that be in this country and state that are selling vaccination as the silver bullet that it clearly isn’t.

  12. FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

    “239 cases, which means the current system isnt working, so we are once again asking you to make the current system work” – top reddit comment

  13. Mining BoganMEMBER

    It she’s telling everyone it’s the world’s harshest lock down then imagine the fury amongst the horse-punchers once she is finally forced to adopt the Victorian lock down rules.

  14. This will end well…

    NSW Police calls for Defence to help lockdown enforcement
    Defence soldiers will soon help NSW Police enforce Sydney’s lockdown.

    NSW police commissioner Mick Fuller has called for 300 Australian Defence Force personnel to help with enforcing health restrictions.

    “With an increase in enforcement activity over the coming week, I have now made a formal request to the Prime Minister for ADF personnel to assist with that operation,” Fuller says.

  15. After whinging about China being authoritarian for a few years, the ultra authoritarian circle jerk developing on these pages seems a little hypocritical.
    The virus kills very few and those that die are predominantly old or fat. Although each death is an individual tradgedy the cumulative loss is a small price to pay for freedom.