Nordea with the note:
The job report on Friday was indisputably a more than decent one as remarked job creation returned! The end of the pandemic unemployment compensation (the famous 300$ weekly cheque) in several states is likely already starting to show up… Big states such as Florida and Texas ended the extra compensation last weekend, but smaller states ended the cheques a few weeks earlier. We expect the end to the unemployment cheques to lead to remarked effects already in the nationwide July job report (published in early August), why you shouldn’t rule out an outright BANGER of a report next month.
The increase in the unemployment rate and the side-ways move in the employment ratio was to be expected as it is merely a question of technicalities. It is simply just a sign that people are returning to the labor force alongside the end of the extraordinary cheques… This is not a bad sign, rather the opposite, as it will lead to major job creation in coming months. U6-unemployment FELL in June. Do not watch the narrow unemployment measure as it will be full of noise over summer as people will be climbing down the U6–U1 ladder.
