NAB ramps-up property price forecasts

NAB has released its residential property survey for Q2, with its Residential Property Index reaching a new survey high of +71 points in the second quarter:

NAB residential property index

NAB’s residential property index has hit an all-time high.

The rebound in NAB’s index is universal, although WA, SA and TAS have begun to turn down:

NAB residential property index by state

Universally strong.

NAB has also ramped-up its dwelling growth forecasts for 2021 from 14.1% in Q1’s survey to 18.5% now; although this has come at the expense of 2022 where forecast growth has slowed from 5.8% growth in Q1’s survey to 3.6%:

NAB projects turbo-charged property price growth in 2021 followed by soft growth in 2022.

If these forecasts come to fruition, 2021 would be the strongest year for Australian dwelling value growth in more than a decade, according to NAB’s index:

NAB property index

Strong conditions.

Rental growth is also tipped to be solid to strong outside of the ACT over the next two years:

Rental expectations

Solid outside of the ACT.

NAB’s price projections might even be conservative given that dwelling values at the 5-city level have already increased by 13.6% in 2021 (i.e. to 26 July), according to CoreLogic:

CoreLogic dwelling values

20% dwelling value growth in 2021?

MB’s assessment of the Australian property market was provided in our 1H subscribers report, released earlier this month.

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