Morrison Newspoll’s crash

It had to happen. During the good times, it doesn’t really matter how bad a government is. But, when it is really needed, during huge external shocks, a government must perform competently or it will pay. And now it is:

  • The latest Newspoll has the Morrison government slumping to even on 39% on the primary vote and trailing badly at 47-53 on two-party preferred.
  • Morrison himself has crashed in net satisfaction:

Satisfaction with the Government’s handling of the pandemic has collapsed from 53% in April to 40% today.

Meanwhile, according to polling by The Australia Institute:

Australians have marked down the federal government for its handling of the pandemic over the course of the past year, while backing the more assertive approach taken by the states, new research shows.

The findings are contained in a paper published by the Australia Institute which has been polling voters about the level of government they think is doing a better job of managing the Covid-19 crisis since August last year.

While the states were viewed as doing the better job at the outset, 31% compared to 25% for the federal government, the gap has substantially widened in recent months.

After tracking a gradual decline in the approval of the federal government’s handling of the pandemic, the July survey of more than 1,000 people found just 16% believe the federal government is outperforming the states, with the approval of the states surging to 42%. One in four people rate both levels of government as doing an equally good job, while 17% are unsure.

It looks like we’ll reach vaccine-led herd immunity by year-end so these polls may be temporary anger that gives way to more structural issues such as Labor’s China treason by election time.

Even so, it is a thoroughly deserved polling shellacking for The Idiot.

Houses and Holes
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Comments

    • BubbleyMEMBER

      Yes. I’m thinking the election will be around “Freedom day” when Australia opens it borders and Aussies can travel again.

      he will try and spin it into “look how awesome I am, I saved Australia.”

      • HadronCollision

        The election has to be held before May innit? Don’t think borders will be open by then.

        Look, let’s be honest. The LNP – Morrison in particular – could not organise a r00t in a brothel even with a suitcase full of gorillas and accompanied by Justin Bieber.

        We’re getting 1mill Pfizer per month now apparently – that covers 500k people with first/second doses and no waste. The 18-39 population all states is 4.012M**, so that covers 12% of that population month on month. There is no vaccination data by vaccine/age group so covering 12% per month (no waste) let’s assume 5% of that population is done – 95% left – that is 8 more months assuming 1million Pfizer per month, no change in population to that age group (that doesn’t include 1A by the way), no waste – so that puts us at, say, March 2022. Swampy confidence low. Accounting for unvaccinated 1A, let’s add another 2 months. Hoocoodanode, that is May, when the election is due.

        RUHROH

        Meanwhile Moderna is due to arrive EOCY2021 – 10 million for first dose and second dose configured for variants in first HALF of 2022 qty 15 million. Eligibility to be confirmed.

        I imagine there are some very terse convos happening behind the scenes.

        Source**: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/dec-2020#data-downloads-data-cubes

    • Lord DudleyMEMBER

      Reusa’s right again! Remember that all polling in Western nations basically skews about 5 percentage points away from the conservatives. Unless they’re consistently trailing by more than 5 percentage points in 2-party-preferred polling, then they’ll probably win.

      Also, the election campaigns haven’t started yet. I have faith in Rupert’s ability to tell Australians what to think when it matters.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        The LNP could lose seats along with Labor. Now is the right time start a new political movement.

        There will be losses in blue middle suburb seats, but they won’t go to Labor.

        • C'est de la folieMEMBER

          All members of parliament and the public service who are entitled to public funded pension or superannuation entitlements should have access to those entitlements restricted or reduced to the extent reflecting any further remuneration made available to them in their post politics or public service careers, stemming from information and personal contacts acquired while acting in a public capacity.

          I would even go further and suggest their pensions should be reduced where children, spouses or significant others gain such employment or remuneration.

          Something like the above is under consideration by the salt of the earth members of the party formerly known as Bullshit Australia.

          Anyone looking to become a member of the party – Australia’s fastest growing political movement – should whizz an email (to join our slack group conspiring to overthrow the dictatorship of dullards we have) to [email protected]

          Could I just add, at this point, that the party still trying to get off the ground known as ‘Bullshit Australia’ (but which many of its cadre suspect will not be a viable name for a real political party) has actually got a slack group trying to start work on creating a constitution, policy platform, structure etc.

          Anyone interested in trying to be part of that please beam an email to [email protected]

          …..and you can join the haggling (which there isnt much of yet)

          The below is from the Election campaign opening for the Bullshit Australia party

          Start with Immigration – ‘The people of Australia deserve an Immigration policy that supports them and provides for a better economic future for their children, and that is not an immigration policy which sees immigrants to simply add to GDP and the demand side, or which effectively deprives the young of work experience and nails incomes growth to the floor, but one which brings in identifiably needed skills, which Australian producers are going to utilise to service demand both here and overseas, so that Australian based know how is getting the economic benefit of its inherent value and delivering that to Australians of now and the future….’

          Then maybe move on to Free Trade – Australia’s trade agreements should be the basis on which Australians of tomorrow feel they have been blessed by their predecessors for enabling a competition in which they are a willing and knowledgeable participant. They should never ever be primarily about the embedding of windfall benefits for the few derived from selling the bequest of the nation, and wherever they are they should clearly articulate the benefit for the many and the period for which they will support Australians to apply their knowledge and inventiveness, and be expressly tailored to producing the best competitive position for the activities of the many and where needed of the future.

          Then we would come to Energy – ‘Australians are currently paying for the worlds most expensive electricity and gas, and when one considers that Australia is blessed by so much ample natural sunlight that no other nation could lay claim to enjoying such a bounty, and so much natural gas that it is currently the world’s leading gas exporter, the gas bills of ordinary Australians are a disgrace. They represent the prioritisation of the corporate profits of those who would seek to deceive and exploit Australia and Australians, and the political front people they elect to your parliament. It is time to invest a fraction of the sums involved in ensuring that Australia has the worlds most expensive real estate to establishing a nation energy commission to ensure that Australian sun, under which we all toil, and Australia’s natural gas bounty is deployed intelligently – in the interests of all Australians – to ensure that Australians, and the economic endeavours they are part of, are supported by the cheapest energy prices on the planet.’

          Of course House Prices would be essential – ‘Australia’s housing costs are a national disgrace and a burden on the Australians of tomorrow. We have a national media, corporate elites and both sides of politics who are wedded to only ever seeing the upside of the ransom that future Australians must pay to enable a roof over their heads, and the weekly contempt that is visited upon those who through no fault of their own, have not inherited housing from their families, and through no fault of their own are not in a position to service the rents for which they are gouged. It is time to end the gifts to speculation and the entitled or the beneficiaries of past speculation or of corruption from abroad. It is time for Australian politics to state clearly and unambiguously that cheap affordable housing is the bedrock of a society in which all feel they have a share and that and should be the entitlement of a just and competitive and economically efficient nation.

          To help bring this to fruition Bullshit Australia will introduce a national 1.5% Land tax, and at the same time enable mortgage repayments supporting mortgages to the value of $500 thousand dollars to become tax deductable from the PAYE tax position of Australians earning less than 70 thousand dollars per annum – and on a sliding scale from that point. This will be combined with the phasing out of negative gearing for all real estate over a 5 year period and the immediate end to the Capital Gains Tax dispensation which has rewarded housing speculators for a generation, while adding to the hurdles faced by Australians wishing to enter the housing market’

          For Farqs sake……

          a large wad of public cash sure can buy vast amounts of bullshit….

          ‘Year of the mate’: At least 13 former Liberal MPs, staffers given plum jobs
          https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/year-of-the-mate-at-least-13-former-liberal-mps-staffers-given-plum-jobs-20210429-p57nk8.html

          Alana Matheson – $387,960 per annum post as a Fair Work Commissioner on April 1.

          Here is Alana’s brief bio https://home.kpmg/au/en/home/contacts/m/alana-matheson.html She has been a workplace relations advisor to small business types – in a world where small business is excluded from the effect of most IR law, has a couple of years with KPMG [who basically dont do industrial relations – who goes to accountants for IR savvy?] and is now looking at 27 years of attendance at the Fair Work Commission unquestioned being paid more than a brain surgeon.

          Sophie Mirabella – – $387,960 per annum post as a Fair Work Commissioner on April 1.

          Sophies story here – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophie_Mirabella – Rogered her lecturer at University, worked as a lawyer for maybe 2-3 years [most of which she spent lobbying for Liberal preselection] , was elected to Parliament to become one of the all time great waste of political space.

          former deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss being re-appointed as the chair of the Australian Rail Track Corporation, on a part-time salary of $166,290.
          former Liberal minister Bruce Billson being appointed Small Business Ombudsman on a $360,250 salary
          former backbencher Eric Hutchinson being re-appointed as Administrator of Norfolk Island with a $304,830 salary
          former Liberal senator Kay Patterson being re-appointed as Age Discrimination Commissioner on $360,250.
          Former Liberal Party federal and state director Tony Nutt, has been re-appointed a director of the Australia Post on a minimum of $96,890 per year. In addition, he has been re-appointed as a Member of the National Museum of Australia Council on $22,180 and re-appointed as a contractor to the Australian Public Service Commission on a $45,000, eight-month contract.
          Victorian state minister Mary Wooldridge was appointed to a $360,250 per year job as Director of the Workplace Gender Equality Agency
          former Liberal Finance Minister Nick Minchin was appointed the Independent Food and Grocery Code Reviewer on $1,499 per day.
          Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s former chief of staff Charles Wann was named chief operating officer in the Health Department – on an annual salary that starts at $317,250
          former Liberal staffers Peter Conran and Jason Marocci have been appointed to $800 per day advisory roles with Sport Integrity Australia.

          Anyone want to try and resurrect the Bullshit Australia Party simply to campaign for a Royal Commission into this sort of bull?

          You get the idea

          [email protected]

          • How serious are you?

            If serious, get a name sorted, website, policies, start taking names to a mailing list.

            Or you could engineer a reverse takeover of the Judean People’s Front for Low Development Australian Sustainable Sustainability.

      • I had a dream the other night.
        I was in a room with an affable Rupert Murdoch, so affable ( at this stage I knew I was dreaming ,) that I was encouraged to ask him about Australia’s political leadership.
        “Scotty has to go .” he said, ” I’ll install Albo and the B team.”
        I then asked him if he accepted the Science on Global Warming, ” Nothing to worry about for 40 years .” he smilingly said.
        So there you have it.
        A dream .
        No sunspots or economical great cycles.

  1. “… polls may be temporary anger that gives way to more structural issues such as Labor’s China treason by election time.”

    Yawn.

    Text book bait and switch (again).

    • 1
      This northern hemisphere winter is going to be bleak. All of this wishful thinking will dissipate like smoke in Nov Dec (just like it did last year).

  2. C.M.BurnsMEMBER

    vaccine-led herd immunity… ask the dutch how that’s working out for them. Or, wait and see what the Poms do 4-6 weeks after their so-called ‘freedom day’

    • Vaccine led herd immunity is a thing, the problem the Dutch and now the UK have is that they have jumped the gun and gone in well before enough of the population is vaccinated. Whatever the threshold is it definitely is higher than the 66% initially touted. Vaccines will fail to stop infection for a certain number of those vaccinated, who then become carriers to spread to the non-vaccinated.

      I expect the UK’s Freedom Day will be viewed as a colossal failure in 4-6 weeks.

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        And by jumping the gun, they are brewing new variants in the unvaccinated population, especially children. D!ckheads.

        This is the fastest spreading pandemic in history, with the highest simultaneously infected population.

        • Torchwood1979

          The last 18 months have been a very long haul, but a bit of patience while the true herd immunity magic number is reached will go a long way.

        • Exactly. To be honest the only way to be “free” is to use both dedicated quarantine and vaccines. Hotel quarantine against delta and other variants just aren’t that effective. These lock downs are costly – but governments everywhere seem to just want to bet on the vaccine only route.

          i.e. Highly Costly, Proven to be Likely risks should have more than one risk control established. That way we can actually be free, at least within the confines of Australia. The question is why haven’t dedicated quarantine facilities been built already?

  3. Sean Kelly (ex Rudd adviser and just about the best political observer going round) had an article today in DomainFax suggesting that despite ScuMo’s abject failure, he will probably be in a good position for the election simply by fixing up (some or most) of the mess he created himself because the short term relief will overcome the longer term anger.

    • Torchwood1979

      Agreed. Remember this is the PM who sat on a Hawaiian beach while his country burned to the ground, yet he just keeps bouncing back in the polls once the anger against his indifference and incompetence subsides.

  4. BubbleyMEMBER

    I suspect that Morrison will go to the polls when we are the height of vaccination success.
    When it comes close to opening the borders, maybe Feb 2022?

    He’ll try to spin it as “The man who saved Australia” rather than the tosser who stuffed up the roll out.

    • Torchwood1979

      He’ll try to spin it as “The man who saved Australia” rather than the tosser who stuffed up the roll out.

      Yep. He isn’t called Scotty from Marketing for nothing. I know that was a jab made at the Betoota Advocate that correctly painted him as all-talk and no substance, but his ability to talk under wet concrete and spin his own greatness really is something to behold.

    • HadronCollision

      Astute judgement required.

      If we have a couple of months of low/no Pfizer/delayed Moderna/no Novavax, he might have wished he’d gone earlier.

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