Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A generally positive mood across Asian stock markets in response to the bounceback on Wall Street overnight, although oil prices remain depressed and continue to drag commodity currencies including the Australian down further. This move is likely to be shortlived as the COVID 19 delta variant economic impact has not yet been priced in. Bitcoin had broken below the $30K level and its start of year price level but managed a nice little bounce this afternoon to almost get back to the $31K level but momentum is nowhere near positive as yet:

The Shanghai Composite closed 0.7% higher at 3562 points while the Hang Seng Index couldn’t take a trick, again finishing lower to be down 0.3% to 27178 points. Japanese stocks were able to bounceback after being in near-freefall with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.6% higher at 27548 points as the USDJPY pair remains stuck just below the 110 handle and unable to garner any positive momentum in the short term:

Australian stocks had a solid move higher despite the poor retail sales print, with the ASX200 lifting nearly 0.8% to close just above 7300 points as the Australian dollar remains depressed moving lower and lower, this time cracking through the 73 handle as it absorbs the commodity market selloff and reweighing continues against USD:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are up 0.2% or so with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price holding on above the 4300 point level but this still looks like a dead cat bounce:

The economic calendar is relatively quiet again tonight with US mortgage applications the only release of note.

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Comments

  1. Going to post this comment in whole and suggest people take the time to read not only it, but some of the other comments by this person in relationship to Covid.

    IM Doc
    July 20, 2021 at 3:15 pm

    To Lambert and Yves and all commenters here –

    Sorry to have another update in just one day – but I think this is so illustrative of what is going on right now that I feel compelled to share.

    I did not feel well when I got home from work last night. As the night wore on, I began to have a very severe cough, very loud wheezing (I do not wheeze), a mild headache, and a fever of 101. I knew exactly what was going on. As soon as I could, I called work to tell them I was not going in and headed right to medical care to be checked – and indeed I am now positive for COVID. I was fully vaccinated in mid April.

    To me, this day was not and if but when. From the very first day in my internship in the big city in the middle of the AIDS pandemic – one of the leading internists in the country told my class – “We do not run from pandemics, we run into them.” My office of fully vaccinated staff has already had one wave of COVID go through about a month ago that somehow I missed – my time was up last night.

    I am in great physical shape for my age – very healthy – and am already feeling much better today – I am going to be fine. But what has happened in the interim since this AM – has been eye-opening.

    I was actually called by a health department phone operator within an hour or two of my diagnosis. They then put another administrative person on the line who informed me that I was vaccinated – and therefore no quarantine was necessary. I told them right away that was ridiculous – and I would be staying at home for now. Within 30 minutes, someone from the state health department contacted me – and I will be brief – informed me that it was very reckless for me as a physician to be talking about quarantine of myself a vaccinated person – the CDC has told us this is not necessary – you cannot spread the virus – doing this would potentially discourage others from vaccination – It may cost lives – My response – “so having me, a positive COVID patient, hang out in exam rooms or the grocery store with obese diabetic cancer patients is not going to cost lives? Please if you think I am being reckless – report me to the Medical Board – I will happily discuss this with my peers.”

    These are the kinds of things that occur with pathologic lying. People actually begin to believe the accumulated lies are truth. All rational thought is completely clouded. I will state for the record – that neither person who spoke to me today was an MD DO RN or MPH. All administrative. I truly believe that most health care workers are beginning to wake up. I think a real genuine health worker would have rotted in hell before making such statements.

    I called one of my old students/residents right after this call. He is currently the head of the Internal Medicine Dept at one of our big universities in Blue America. I was informed that out of the 20 or so faculty members in his division – all 100% vaccinated – 7 of them had become ill with COVID in the past few weeks. We kind of laughed nervously about the 95% number for relative risk reduction – and how we as a profession were about to learn that misrepresenting numbers like this to the public was a very bad idea. Then some profound statements from him ——

    “I have been dealing with this nightmare called evidence-based medicine for years. Students and residents both now tell me that only peer-reviewed RCT are what they should be looking at – nothing else matters. They would not know the difference between a relative risk reduction and an incidence if they had to – they do not even bother to look at anything but an RCT – therefore they know nothing of medical statistics. This has been on full display for the world to see the past 18 months. Just look at any Twitter feed. We have a lot of work to do.”

    And I, IM Doc, have several times discussed the human theater, the “stupid human tricks” of putting your vaccination photos on Facebook or TV as a motivator. And then spend days talking about the bad reaction you had to your vaccine – “I got really sick – Hallelujah – I know it has activated my immune system”. I got so so tired of that chestnut – but it was all over the Internet for months. Any vaccinologist, immunologist – etc – would tell you that was just horse shit. And now you know why that was a very very bad unprofessional thing to be doing. It literally motivates no one, and now there is going to be lots of explaining going on.

    My old student today – “Actually the Facebook vaccination meme was the second worst thing. The absolute worst was the whole health care TikTok Video dancing – often done in ERs where there were lines of sick people waiting. It made me want to punch the wall. But now all these kids that put their Facebook vaccination photos online and bragged about it – are going to get to explain to all their patients and friends how they still got COVID after the vaccines – we have quite a few housestaff and students fully vaccinated becoming positive – not just the faculty.”

    “Young Grasshopper – pride goeth before a fall”. There are those of us who have been warning that all was not well with our entire approach for months – and were laughed and scoffed out of the room. We as a profession are going to have a lot to answer for.”

    All that is from my old student – now a leader in academic medicine – I am so so relieved – people are starting to wake up.

    The take home message from where we are today –
    These vaccines are non-sterilizing. That means they may limit or eliminate symptoms – but they do nothing for the spread. There are probably all kinds of vaccinated patients harboring active infections at this very minute and they have no clue – the vaccine is making them not sick. But they are sharing it with all around them. Many if not most of them taking no measures because the CDC told them they did not have to – YOU ARE VACCINATED. The good news for today is that the symptoms, hospital, and death all seem to be low. The bad news is all of these harboring the virus are further playgrounds for the virus to mutate. And when you allow it to become more and more widespread – the more likely a really bad mutant will come to the fore. That is THE danger of non-sterilizing vaccines being used for a virus that is profoundly capable of mutating.

    My advice today – DO NOT PLAY INTO THE DIVISIVE UNVACCINATED/VACCINATED GAME – at this point and in the near future – it is going to become increasingly obvious this is just not a hill to die on. TAKE CARE OF YOURSELF and YOUR FAMILY. Find and identify any elders in your community that may need help. Plenty of sleep – plenty of sunshine – lose weight, exercise, eat well – vitamin D 2000 daily. AND SMILE. It does wonders.

    God bless us all.

    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/07/200pm-water-cooler-7-20-2021.html#comment-3576494

    To that I would remind that none of the Covid vaccinations are sterilizing immunity e.g. you can still get it and still infect others which means there is no guarantee that you won’t get long covid or worse – have a care.

  2. Arthur Schopenhauer

    On Wednesday, in what Justice John Champion said was the first prosecution of a domestic slavery case in Australia, Mrs Kannan, 53, was jailed for eight years and Mr Kannan, 57, for six years after they were found guilty in April of intentionally possessing and using a slave. The charges carry a maximum 25 years in prison.

    Mrs Kannan must serve four years before she is eligible for parole and her husband must serve at least three years.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/couple-jailed-for-keeping-woman-as-a-domestic-slave-20210721-p58bl4.html

    • My theory is that there is nothing at all in the first Pfizer shot. The second is full of adjuvant which is a fancy word for tar, straw and cow sh!t. This gives the strong symptoms like temperature etc and cos that stuff is insoluble you get raised immunity for enough time to give the illusion of protection. Prove me wrong.

      • Frank DrebinMEMBER

        Seems like the standard in Australia is to hospitalise kids with breathing issues.

        Pre-Covid our little one did multiple overnight stints in hospital on oxygen with breathing issues. No real downside to doing that as a precaution in my book.

    • chuckmuscleMEMBER

      I’m not sure links to comments like that will be appreciated by the MB commentaria…. especially the snide remark by the doc about RCT, some stoopid robot on here might have conniptions, and vaccines are supposed to save us….. are you not thinking of the elderly, one death is one too many? What kind of monster are you spreading thoughts that haven’t been approved by all CHOs?

      • Arthur Schopenhauer

        His takeaway was, the virus is going to virus even better with non-sterilising vaccines:

        The take home message from where we are today –
        These vaccines are non-sterilizing. That means they may limit or eliminate symptoms – but they do nothing for the spread. There are probably all kinds of vaccinated patients harboring active infections at this very minute and they have no clue – the vaccine is making them not sick. But they are sharing it with all around them. Many if not most of them taking no measures because the CDC told them they did not have to – YOU ARE VACCINATED. The good news for today is that the symptoms, hospital, and death all seem to be low. The bad news is all of these harboring the virus are further playgrounds for the virus to mutate. And when you allow it to become more and more widespread – the more likely a really bad mutant will come to the fore. That is THE danger of non-sterilizing vaccines being used for a virus that is profoundly capable of mutating.

        Best to start building dedicated quarantine stations.

        • Disagree and finding it worrisome that many are twisting his words and meaning completely out of context as if for some agenda.

          His import is the mangling of Evidence based Science, over a protracted period, but this event and its handling is a bridge too far in his ethical/oath personal views e.g. not dissimilar to “War Is a Racket” by General Smedley Butler.

      • “I’m not sure links to comments like that will be appreciated by the MB commentariat”

        Presumptive opening statement without distinction.

        “especially the snide remark by the doc about RCT”

        Emotive proclamation that is completely out of context with what IM Doc said e.g. he quantified why ie. that many – now days – take RCT as fact without looking under the hood at how it was arrived at or do you suggest industry is above outside review … cough short memory’s about aerosols and how it shaped policies which now are know to contribute to both death and post morbidity.

        “I have been dealing with this nightmare called evidence-based medicine for years. Students and residents both now tell me that only peer-reviewed RCT are what they should be looking at – nothing else matters. They would not know the difference between a relative risk reduction and an incidence if they had to – they do not even bother to look at anything but an RCT – therefore they know nothing of medical statistics. This has been on full display for the world to see the past 18 months. Just look at any Twitter feed. We have a lot of work to do.”

        This is not just some newly minted GP/MD that is on some short leash to a private equity run health extraction [rents] service [bill padding] bloke.

        Philip Mirowski argues that a powerful neoliberal ideology promoted a radically different view of knowledge and discovery: the fruits of scientific investigation are not a public good that should be freely available to all, but are commodities that could be monetized. – see book Science Mart

  3. I’ve never admitted I’ve never been overseas (despite Fijian ancestry). I’ve never admitted to never having been on a holiday. But I’m sick of this whole sacrifice sh*t for homeownership

    https://twitter.com/DrDemography/status/1417755634892607488

    Works at a university, rents, hasn’t been overseas. This Doc doesn’t really know how to profit from selling out the working classes. Also maybe she has too many kids and too early, those things do cost a lot. But I am sure re-starting the population ponzi won’t push housing up any further? Right?

    • Banana ManMEMBER

      yeah, another tax bill for the progeny. awesome. hopefully we can pay some fat interest on the debt, because we sure as shi aint going to make any money off it.

      • Yeah say goodbye to Brisbane liveability. So we get a a pom, a kiwi and safa to ruin Australian s best home cricket ground. The Qld Gov needs to open the design and tendering on this. The clowns in Populous, a sepo firm, based in Brisbane , will be smashing the $500 Shiraz and Wagyu. Good track record in delivering stadiums all over budget and struggle to find a use post event
        ..

        But hey it’s worth it for Australian cricket. Not.

    • The Travelling Phantom

      I don’t think they don’t like the lockdown (they had very long one with curfew) as much as the idea of being forced to carry the immunisation passport and force businesses to check on them with 10k euro fine
      BTW such protest won’t happen in Oz, it’s a myth that Aussies
      are larrikins, non conformists etc..on the contrary we have
      the biggest population of Nanny State dependants

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    For the first time ever had groceries delivered this week
    Vey slick operation by woolies …
    The delivery man was a skilled migrant
    Straya is taking on aspects of The Raj

  5. Bcnich – if you’re out there: looks like your predictions about an H2 crash are starting to come true. Can’t help wondering how you’re trading it.

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