Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Asian stock markets continue to selloff in response to the wider risk-off mood prevailing on overseas markets overnight, with oil prices off by nearly 10% in response to both more supply and probable economic slowdowns as the COVID 19 delta variant sparks widespread concern. Bitcoin has broken below the $30K level and its start of year price as this wipeout – now off by more than 50% since April – gathers pace:

The Shanghai Composite is down nearly 0.5%, currently at 3522 points while the Hang Seng Index continues its own correction, down 1.2% to remain well below the 28000 point level, currently at 27169 points. Japanese stocks remain in freefall with the Nikkei 225 about to close 0.6% lower at 27472 points as the USDJPY pair remains stuck below the 110 handle but relatively stable from last night’s action as Yen safe haven buying keeps the strong USD at bay:

Australian stocks almost escaped the risk off mood with the ASX200 about to close only 0.3% lower at 7266 points as the Australian dollar remains quite depressed here, hovering just above the 73 handle as it absorbs the commodity market selloff and reweighing continues against USD:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are bouncing around nervously here going into the London open with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price overshooting from last night’s rout and ready to have a stab at getting back above the 4300 point level but this looks like a dead cat bounce:

The economic calendar continues with a quiet session, just US housing starts for June.

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

  1. The Travelling Phantom

    Another week for Melbs, Sydney still looks not out
    Of the woods. Seems the covid is taking a hold amongst the
    wrong cohort (I bet there’ll be visiting and breaking
    of rules with the festival on today)

    • NSW (Sydney) is struggling to keep the genie in the bottle.
      Headline case numbers look like they’re stabilising, but the numbers of people still in the community while infectious hasn’t budged for the last week.
      There are 260 cases that remain unlinked with the number rising daily. Contact tracers are only able to link about 12 cases each day.
      Turn-around times for test results are blowing out to 90 hours in some cases. They have stopped listing some casual contact locations unless there are further linked cases to help take the pressure of testing.
      NSW Health are now advising secondary close contacts (close contacts of a close contact) and advising them to isolate and get tested – previous advise was to monitor for symptoms and get tested if symptomatic.
      They are also falling behind on notifying locations of concern about confirmed cases (we have been told at work (NSW Public Sector) that we can no longer rely on NSW Health to inform us of any positive cases that have attended one of our locations).

      • The Travelling Phantom

        Seems the system is buckling under the pressure..
        Oh how’s the brother out of the hotel yet?

      • He got moved to a bigger suite today (only took 8 days!). Still negative which is good. Home on Sunday as long as his last test comes back negative.

        • The Travelling Phantom

          Good to hear, prisoners get conjugal visits..he doesn’t so it’s harder than prison. Hopefully all over soon

          • He had to kick up a stink about it. They told him there was nowhere else available, but he was on a group chat with some other iso paramedics and some of them said they were staying at Mercure serviced apartments.

            He rang the union and got them out of the Ibis sh!thole. He’ll probably take a few weeks mental health leave when he goes back.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        Fck’n Gladys. That sour-faced c#nt has got my race cancelled next weekend. Months of training and P00F, gone into thin air.

        You too Scummo. I know you’re denying it now but three weeks ago you backed her pretend lockdown to the hilt. Useless prick.

        • The Travelling Phantom

          Yea! I remember when you talked about the bush run close to Yarra…wow been a year since then

          • Mining BoganMEMBER

            That was in June that one, got put back two weeks but they finally got the okay. That was a great day. One this weekend has been postponed to next year. There’s another’s one in Anglesea in three weeks that must now be looking shaky.

            Not to mention my cancelled golf days…

            Fck’n Gladys.

            Edit: the Puffing Billy race has been cancelled too. I think that’s twice now. That’s a big money raiser for them.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          What a bugger. My annual long weekend no-kids ski tour has also evaporated. Fkn best back country snow in Victoria in a while.

          Same thing happened last year, but of course it was worse, ‘cause it was Dan’s fault!! 😀❄️⛷

        • HadronCollision

          I’m getting back into golf including pennant after a very long layoff. Played Byron weekend last and another this weekend. Ill have a few three putts for you

    • I said this was a risk a month ago, now it’s coming true and even worse than I thought. Gladys and Scomo must be held to account. Instead LVO keeps posting about how it wasn’t as bad as Vic 2nd wave… 🤦🏻‍♂️

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Weird – that was exactly what I was thinking about on the way to work this morning. Not kidding. Weird.

      My second thought (of two) was prompted by the fact I was going to work at the time I had the first one: if people reckon everything is sooooooo bad that they feel a compulsion to buy a house, how long do they think it will be before they loose the job(s) they need to pay the mortgage on it? Never?

      Still, logic ≠ FHB.

      • The Travelling Phantom

        Yea that’s the unsolvable equation…
        Oh BTW I’m impressed you managed to do 2 thoughts at once..that’s superpower

          • Yeah nah. Just making sh1t up. No man can do two thoughts at once, or two of anything, for that matter. Or find things. Men can’t find things either.

          • Lost me sh!t the other day cos some bugger had hidden the teapot in the centre of the kitchen counter! Took me bloody ages to find it. What sort of a degenerate would put it there?!

          • call me ArtieMEMBER

            LSWCHP
            Men can so find things, if g0ddamn women would just leave them where they were put (i.e. in the middle of the floor)
            JohnR
            It’s the future for all of us. The near future for me

          • Wait until you put your glasses on so you can look for your glasses… hours of fun! … for missus!

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Ive gone looking for my mobile phone a number of times trying to get out of the house whilst its in my hand.

    • That article and Lowe’s comments read like excuses excuses excuses on not raising the official rate.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        You get my vote there (as usual).

        As long as it starts with: House prices always rise during an Australian pandemic.

      • C'est de la folieMEMBER

        I would like to create a brand ….
        .
        ‘Nobody Could Have Seen This Coming’….

        And I would like to get that brand white hot and sear those words into the forehead of a significant number of prominent Australians, after looking them in the eye and stating (inter alia)…..

        ‘This is world leading’
        ‘This is in the national interest’
        ‘This is the gold standard for helping people in your condition’
        ‘Other countries are envious of Australia’
        ‘If you have a go, you will get a go’

        and

        ‘You won’t feel a thing’

    • Do you think this is why all of the big miners have been going gungho on green power for their mine sites? We’ll end up with carbon neutral iron ore before the nation picks the low hanging fruit the libtards refuse to buckle on.

    • If only Australia had a low cost easy to administer domestic price on carbon then Mr Tehan wouldn’t need to worry about this.

      In any case, is it protectionist to prevent someone from free riding?

  2. Ok confessions I’m down on my $BTC now.

    At the peak it was worth $3,462.
    At the moment it is worth $2,178.

    If I was to sell now I’d lose only a couple hundred..but must have diamond hands.. 🙂

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      No, you’re winning because you’re part of the new horizon.

      No loss can take that away from you.

    • call me ArtieMEMBER

      Gav. You want a confession? That’s not a confession, THIS is a confession!
      I bought BBOZ right at the beginning of the first big lockdown. I figured I could not lose shorting the ASX index. I eventually capitulated with a loss of $30,000 six months later as the V-shaped recovery continued to boom.
      I doubt that I will ever sleep a full night again

      • haroldusMEMBER

        I didn’t lose that much, but enough after I made a quick 1.5k profit and jumped back in because I am an investing genius.

        Anyway, looks like I have become a BBOZ investor.

        FCKEN

      • Ouch …. That’s loss porn worthy of wallstreetbets. Makes me feel less awful about some of my recent disasters

      • WhatcouldgowrongMEMBER

        Another BBOZ hodler checking in – now at a > 50% loss. Waiting for the next crash in 18 months’ time

        • haroldusMEMBER

          It’s cause I’m lazy and stupid and don’t set up my stops.

          And for some reason a quick 5% loss seems worse than a slow grind down to 50%.

          FCKEN

          • WhatcouldgowrongMEMBER

            I bought it as a hedge, so there wasn’t much intention of stops. Now I understand that wasn’t the best decision. I tell myself it’s ok, it can’t go to zero… or can it? Anyway 18 months’ time and it’ll all be good.

    • Yeah, well let’s not discuss my alt coin, um…”portfolio”. I now refer to it as The Somme.

    • alwaysanonMEMBER

      I bought it in December 2017 at the peak(ish). I then BTFDed for awhile before calling it and selling out having lost ~$7k or something (my biggest ever investment/gambling loss). If I had just held out on that until this year’s run-up I could have not only not have not lost money but might have made like $40k or something instead. So maybe that is an argument for the ‘diamond hands’. (shrug) There may be a long time horizon on this one though…

      • Honestly, this was always meant to be a long term play for me, but this year the price kept booming and I was trying to dollar cost average my buy in’s… meh… It’s either this or a bank account at 0% interest.

    • Similar story here, I got out about a month ago and made a small profit on Cardano (was nearly 200% at one point). It’s just too random and I can invest it into my own business so I’ve done that.

    • Are people still talking about Crypto? Haven’t heard any conversations with my mates in a while, and my boss at work, so I assume it’s lost interest for many

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        Crypto speculators only talk about crypto when they are in the black and making huge paper profits cause even dumber speculators have bought in after they did.

        When they are (deeply) in the red, it’s all tumbleweeds and awkward silences.

    • I did 6 months research (on an off), talked to miners, went to meet-ups, had a crack at understanding cryptography when it was $250. Set it all up and was one call away from investing $10k before I thought it was irresponsible and chickened out. I could have retired early. Better a ‘has been’ than a ‘never was’!

      • Yeah, I wanted to buy into $BTC at $750 but got talked out of it haha. Still regret that today.

        • Particularly, three things:

          1. Some kind of mechanism in the cryptography ‘elyptical’… something something… can’t remember now… came straight out of the NSA. I’m not laundering $ but just no trust that some gov something going on there that could make it a political tool one day. Not to mention quantum computing that seemed a real threat at the time.

          2. The weird ‘Jedi council’ -like group who get to change the rules destroyed the mathematical invulnerability of it for me – and the beauty of the autonomous self correcting mechanism RE: mining volumes, etc, etc

          3. Still don’t see it as a viable everyday currency – widespread adoption wise anyway – for a number of subreasons. Not to mention regulatory risk but since very surprised the us govt hasn’t smashed it yet see paranoia reason one above.

    • Goldstandard1MEMBER

      Mines pretty much the same as I bought the last break under 30,000 US. It’s a hedge so not at all concerned. It’s a high risk gambling game which I don’t usually play, but I noticed the govs are backing punters so thought I better get a piece.

  3. Fishing72MEMBER

    When a small town starts being referred to as a village the gentrification is already too entrenched to halt, irrespective of any clandestine methamphetamine epidemic within the community. Accepted wisdom being that tweekers will soon be priced out of the rental market anyway.

    • Like when I read of those Villagers worrying about how their offspring not being able to afford the town they priced me out of. Soothes the bitterness.

  4. The Travelling Phantom

    Can someone please put Casper the phantom picture beside my handle? Like Gav someone gave him a car, TTW got a selfie, houses and holes has houses and holes etc

    • The speedo on my 2015 Navara Ute reads about 4% high. So it’ll tell me I’m doing 104 when I’m actually doing 100. My partner’s Subaru XV is the same.

      • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

        all manufacturers have the Speedo over for safety and legal reasons but also very sneakily put more Kay’s on yer car

    • working class hamMEMBER

      Actual speed went from 4 km/h under the speedo to 6 km/h over. Using the GPS on a 08 Patrol, stock tyres to 33″, 17″ to 16″ rims.

    • If you change your rolling diameter or gear/diff ratios without adjusting for it, can cause your speedometer to be out. Lots of people put all sorts of crap rims on their cars with questionable tyres which I’d guess are not stock rolling diameter.

      My cars tend to read over… so usually I am on the speed limit because I tend to drive 5-10km/h higher 🙂

  5. The Traveling Wilbur

    I think the final straw for going all-in at the close today might just have been reading the phrase “dead cat bounce” on here this morning. Multiple times.

  6. haroldusMEMBER

    Making friends around the world.

    Tajikistan, which shares a border with China’s Xinjiang province, was forced to hand over territory of 1158 square kilometres of the Pamir mountains to China after defaulting on loans.

    It meant the Chinese companies snagged rights to mine gold, silver and other mineral ores in the region.

    https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/chinas-abandoned-debt-traps-costing-nations-billions/news-story/8cb67bed10e8bf619118d7625f78632d

    • I don’t understand why these countries don’t tell the Chinese to fck off. The Chinese have no global force projection capability whatsoever.

      • C.M.BurnsMEMBER

        They share a border. Pretty sure the CCP army could muster enough canon fodder to take it if they chose to.

        Projecting force over an ocean is completely beyond them. Despite what old mate quantum laser drone squadron would have us believe

        • True dat. I was thinking more of the Montenegrans and Sri Lankas et al, where the loan money has gone to corrupt politicians and bankers and the public get nothing in return except rogering without lube from the CCP.

  7. Ronin8317MEMBER

    From the local Chinese social media ‘Little Red Book’ (unconfirmed), seems like there are at least two cases in Campsie that is not on the government website yet. It’s an employee at the Campsie Tong Li, and the Bread Top opposite it as well.

  8. Arthur Schopenhauer

    Mark McGowan. Dead set lockdown legend.
    “Shut the border early. Shut the border hard.”

    Number of days until Brisbane locks down?

  9. Meanwhile, the borders remain relatively closed to Chinese and Indian and Nepalese invaders….errmmm …. students.

    Great work, little virus! Carry on!

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Your not fooling anyone Reusa.
        We know Investor aristocrats like yourself love the the political alliance between the capitalists class and Government that is fascism.
        As long as their monopoly on the use of extreme violence is wielded to protect and premote your ill-gotten property gains and domination of your tenants then,… you Love it Buddy.
        You know you love it!

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          Dude, he just loves Commies like you generally if he’s being honest – ’cause then the smart ones are kept busy agitating instead of doing something financially rewarding thereby probably cutting his margins in the process. 😀

          • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

            Mate.
            Don’t go all Jordan Peterson on me.
            Whats your next bit of sagely advice?
            Clean up my bedroom first,…before leading a proletarian revolution!?

            Geesh!,…your not my dad!

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          That’s right, I’m not. For a start, I’m taller. And besides, we’d want to start slowly wouldn’t we – rushing to the bedroom stage seems overconfident – for instance, with a haircut?