Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

A snap OPEC meeting over the weekend has sent oil prices lower as more supply will be coming online in August, helping some risk currencies although the Aussie dollar missed out. Sentiment on stock markets is very poor as we start the trading week in reaction to the falls on Wall Street on Friday night on the back of surprising inflation expectations in the US. Bitcoin remains deflated as it hovers around the $32K level after making a new three week low last week and almost matching the start of year price.

Gold is just holding on above the $1800USD per ounce level and trailing ATR support as it remains at the Friday night lows at $1811 which equates to the previous overhead resistance level:

The Shanghai Composite was down more than 0.7% mid session but is closing half that gap going into the close, currently at 3525 points while the Hang Seng Index has fallen much sharper, down 1.5% to decisively break below the 28000 point level, currently at 27569 points. Japanese stocks are joining in on the pity party with the Nikkei 225 about to close 1.4% lower at 27609 points  as the USDJPY pair remains stuck below the 110 handle as Yen safe haven buying keeps the strong USD at bay:

Australian stocks haven’t escaped the risk off mood with the ASX200 off by more than 0.7% going into the close at 7294 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar remains quite depressed here as it continues to sell off below the 74 cent level as reweighing continues against USD:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are sitting nervously here going into the London open with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 showing price barely a handful of points above its Friday night rout lows and ready to break below the previous dip lows from two weeks ago below the 4300 point level:

The economic calendar starts the week very quietly with some Treasury auctions on offer but not much else.

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  1. New Zealand: New Ipsos Issues Survey just released …

    … Housing still the major concern … by a country mile …

    14th Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor – June 2021 Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor_ Report.pdf

    Housing rated as a top issue in society – Ipsos Monitor … Voxy

    Monday, 19 July, 2021 – 12:32

    More than half (53%) of New Zealanders rate housing as a top issue in society – twice higher than any other issue. Housing has consistently been the top concern by far since Ipsos began tracking in 2018; it was briefly displaced by the economy and unemployment during the peak COVID period last year but has quickly bounced back to unprecedented levels.

    In 2018, Ipsos New Zealand started tracking the key issues facing New Zealand. In this wave, the Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor asked 1,003 New Zealanders to select from a list of 20, the three most important issues facing the country and to rate the ability of the country’s political parties to best manage these issues.

    The top three issues facing New Zealanders in June 2021 are housing / price of housing (53%), followed by healthcare / hospitals (27%) and inflation / cost of living (27%).

    Key findings include: … read more via hyperlinks above …

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Seriously: so it’s not just me then that feels markets right now are exactly like just before back when Shanghai was the first by a length to take a 30% dump?

      Otherwise we’d have had another clearout and megaboom in US stocks by now / at least underway by now?

      So some highly paid epidemiologist somewhere already has got all the data they need, and run their models and the result is going to be for the UK, China and the US… ? Well, not great. That we do know.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Ruh roh.

        (if this keeps up, we may be able to return to talking about finance and trading again – until Scumo does something stupid again anyway)

        PS – Trigger warning – Horn tooting ahead:

        The Traveling Wilbur
        July 19, 2021 at 4:39 pm

        Seriously: so it’s not just me then that feels markets right now are exactly like just before back when Shanghai was the first by a length to take a 30% dump?

          • The Traveling Wilbur

            As long as it’s not blue and stuck on a wall, I’m all good with that.


          Yeh really felt like we hit a little airpocket back there and were just floating in air.. Could go limit down tonight though! What fun!

  2. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Just went to Curly with dog after dropping off cut up firewwod to my mate. Could hardly get a carpark surfers packed like sardines, hundreds of dog walkers grouping none with masks.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Btw, he lives in North Balgowlah.The wood courtesy of the big wind the other day bringing down one of the wife’s native bird attracting grevillea robusta’s plus gum tree branches.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      To be expected Boom – I’ve tried, and failed, here in Qld. But if you can the down south dogs to wear masks then more power to you. 😀😷

  3. South Australia locking down now……….Delta moves quick………30 hrs from catching it to broadcasting it in Melbourne.

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      The advice we’ve been given confirms that nobody could have seen the advice we were given

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Anybody paying any attention to the performance of our current LNP federal Government could easily have seen this coming.

    • darklydrawlMEMBER

      You’re correct Gav. I said to many people two weeks ago that Melbourne would be back in lockdown ‘soon’ (trading shares has taught me that precise timing can be tricky). This one was pretty much a given since we had opened everything back up (Tens of thousands at the ‘G anyone?) but nothing had changed to prevent infection spread. This covid business has given me some kudos with folks I know though (traditionally I have been a viewed as a bit of a Debbie Downer). I said back in Feb 2019 that this was shaping up to be a major disruption and likely one of “The Big Ones” – plenty of them scoffed at me then, but these days they listen a bit more carefully when they ask me stuff. That’s not to say I am a guru on this – I have been wrong about plenty of things too (Oz real estate for example).

      • Back in January I was saying to people that it’d be back in winter and lockdown would be a thing again. The response was always shock/horror you’re wrong. Unlike your experience, most just don’t talk to me any more. I find myself not unhappy with this. But then, I live on 140 acres with a garden, chooks, house cows and a big shed full of projects. Who needs acquaintances?

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          What’s a house cow?

          Please don’t tell me it’s a structure people live in.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          There a house near Eaglemont Station with a Rooster 🐓. A regular quarter acre suburban block with a full, top of its lungs, cock-a-doodle-doo going all day. (A Rooster not a Reusa.)

          It’s sort of enchanting during lockdown, but it would be very annoying if you lived nearby.

  4. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    Bridget McKenzie on the ABC this afternoon sums up this government. Bluster and bullsh!t. If this was a company, the entire board would be sacked.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        She looks like she’d be fun to drink p!ss and go shooting with.
        Reckon she knows how to have a Good time.
        But yes an appalling lack of integrity for a member of Parliament.
        Like a kind of female Reus I imagine.

        • RobotSenseiMEMBER

          And not just an MP. A member of cabinet put this performance on. Utter horsep!ss.

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          And you could colour code all the beers at your local to mark which of you should pay for which, too.

          More seriously, I’m old enough to remember when people who disagreed vehemently with the crap messaging they were obliged to trot out were smart enough to signal that while delivering said trope (and still toeing the party line in the process). She either doesn’t disagree or isn’t smart enough to signal she does. Or both (my pick).


    At first I thought this bird was being smart… But then…

    Lately she’s been busy thinking about her new home that’s been constructed on a block at Armstrong, near Geelong.

    “I did lots of research on the grants available [and] we went for a build, because we were able to get $25,000 from the federal government and $20,000 from the state government to do it regionally,” she says.

    “That’s how we did it. It’s like a miracle.

    “Now I can just be kinder to myself. We’ve got this forever home, which we’re so thrilled about.”

    I hope it’s a fixed price contract love…

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        As we’ve been doing the whole time, this is consistent with following the health advice we have been provided with.

        • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

          Health advice? Full PPE highly recommended for unavoidable relations

          It’s just the advice given … 😂

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Today’s good story ( heard on the ABC )

    Anastasia is heading to Tokyo to secure the games for 2032 ….apparently no one else has put their hand up …yet ………meanwhile they are having a big breakfast in Brissy to support the effort ….. special guest …Steven Bradbury …

    • I dearly hope that the Castro of Qld does pick up up the Shanghai Sniffle. No need for her to waste resources flying over there.


        I wonder if any young whipper snapper ever stumbles into the MB arvo comments section hoping for some trading tips and wholesome discussions and subsequently wonders why everyone’s talking about rebounding and flushing their poos and the outcome of their relations parties?

        • The Traveling Wilbur

          It’s how they got me, that’s for sure – who knew it was to be the first flush a long term romance.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      In reference to that other comment: Who dis? 😜

      In reference to this comment – as harry would put it: Bail? 🙌

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      PS You leave, you don’t call or write, you come back and you don’t even bring flowers. Sniff. Still, despite all that, seems better round here already. 🍬🍬🍬

    • SnappedUpSavvyMEMBER

      from the advice i’ve recieved a politicians head would fit in such a vice, i think its good value

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      What’s with the RELIC making me feel old.
      Have identical one given to .me brand new by my ship repair boss/mates in the early seventies. Remember the words, “hey Boom wants a vice, here’s one for him” and they chucked in on the back of the truck we were sitting in. I was only looking for a medium one but didn’t say no to the freebie.

    • boomengineeringMEMBER

      Don’t let Lord Dudley see your writing that. After my yesterday’s post referring to no lockdowns for traffic accidents in yesterday’s story, NSW Covid numbers soar to 1200.

    • Alex Rondelson

      Actually, I made a mistake. Its 75% of the at-risk population that has received at least one dose!

      Look at the Netherlands and UK, huge numbers of cases and very few deaths and hospitalisations. Tracking cases at this point of the pandemic is totally pointless.

    • There has been, and still is, some seriously good political mileage for most of the state Premiers in the lockdowns.
      It doesn’t appear to have dawned on many of the locals that even with high levels of vaccination hospital admissions and deaths will occur in even higher numbers than today once we open up.
      Unless your alternative is an indefinite border closure and ongoing lockdowns forever. It is hard to know what the lock us down crowd are actually after as they don’t usually admit to wanting the above.

    • The entire population has been gas lighted into thinking that lockdowns are the only solution and any number of cases are bad when cases alone are the wrong measure. But this is Team Straya, so expect the same for the foreseeable future.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        What will be the case if in ten years time we still have Covid ? The worst depression in history ? Killing more people than Covid could ever have done.
        Or will they admit defeat and carry on regardless.