Macro Afternoon

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

Earnings season is about to ramp up on Wall Street tonight, with Asian stocks in a holding pattern but still looking firm after a much better start to the trading week. The USD is equally sanguine with no big swings against the majors while in Bitcoin world, the crypto currency has fallen back below the $33K level after stalling yesterday. Gold is holding on above the $1800USD per ounce after dipping yesterday as the $1810 rounding top pattern on the four hourly chart is slowly morphing back into a sideways contiuation here with trailing ATR level at $1785 holding:

The Shanghai Composite is up 0.4% going into the close to 3561 points while the Hang Seng Index is jumping out of the blocks, currently up 1.6% to 27979 points. Japanese stocks are putting in firm gains after a big surge at the start of the week with the Nikkei 225 closing 0.5% higher to 28710 points as the USDJPY pair maintains its Friday night high above the 110 handle with a small creeping advance that has yet translated into a new trend:

Australian stocks are the least interesting with a flat session, the ASX200 closing 1 point down but still remaining well above the 7300 point level to 7332 points. Meanwhile the Australian dollar is similarly moving nowhere after its Friday night surge, still below the 75 handle despite four hourly momentum moving back into the positive zone with overhead ATR resistance still quite firm:

Eurostoxx and S&P futures are looking stretched here again, but this could still translate into more gains on the open tonight with the four hourly chart of the S&P500 still wanting to point north here with last week’s mid session high at the 4350 point level proving solid short term support:

The economic calendar is getting more interesting with the start of the US earnings season, but first its the all important German inflation report for June, then the US inflation print, then a slew of Treasury auctions.

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Comments

  1. The Travelling Phantom

    so everyone is warming for the negative rates , with the lock down in Sydney more stimulus seems not enough for the house prices
    Oh and i missed by a lot , would it stay under 100 tomorrow?

  2. RobotSenseiMEMBER

    @Ermo, regarding your last comment yesterday which I didn’t get time to reply to:

    Its an odd rule,…if it is a rule.
    Maybe if I ticked either box of having symptoms or close contacts they would have given me the need to stay at home piece of paper.

    But here is the rub.
    If I really needed to be somewhere tomorrow morning I just wouldn’t have had the test.
    I work for myself so its no big deal to shuffle jobs around as I see fit but for millions of people who live and work from pay check to pay check why would they volunteer to be tested, without symptoms or close contacts, if they are forced to not work for an undefined period of time after the test?

    I mean its just stupid if you want more widespread testing to occur.

    If “essential” workers are allowed (and expected by their employers) to work without a test why would you stop them from working simply because they took a test,…they weren’t even required to take!,….like I said with no symptoms or close contacts.
    People just won’t get a test.

    That’s precisely right: everyone who works casual, contract, has no sick leave, has something really important the next day etc now has to run the gauntlet of “do I pay my bills?” or “do I go get a test?” Furthermore, there’s lots of people who run all their errands for the day, visiting 5-10 sites or more, then thinking “oh, I’ll just duck in and get a test on the way home”, and the contact tracers go absolutely nuts afterwards.

    There’s still no good solution to this. Watching #Sh!tShowMo get on the telly earlier and announce $600/week to anyone put out by his shortcomings only reinforces the notion that living off JobKeeper is impossible, but there are a lot (a LOT) of people living paycheck to paycheck, who have no financial incentive to get tested, and would rather work through an illness than have to spend 24-48hrs in isolation waiting on a test result.

    But I guess all I learnt out of today is that everyone is an essential worker, so just keep calm and carry on until Christmas.

    • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

      Yeh they not gonna lick this one with the half-assed lockdown and I don’t think they trying to really. Not by chrissy anyway. You really gotta support people properly to isolate and get tested or the whole thing won’t work.

      • boomengineeringMEMBER

        Had my inoculation this morning, the seawater kills a lot of bugs.
        Have you ever noticed people who swim in the sea everyday never get colds or flu’s. ( I try for every second day)

        • FUDINTHENUDMEMBER

          yeh the southern ocean keeps me fit(ish) and the cold water doesn’t hurt. I aint no Wim Hoff, but i do love the cold.

          Don’t know if throwing everyone in Sydney into the ocean will fix thing though, but it would be amusing.

          • chuckmuscleMEMBER

            Have you seen any randomised control trials done for exercise, vitamin D and this thing called healthy living? Show me the gold standard tests please. And aren’t they supposedly for other morbidities? Couldn’t possibly therefore have any effect on wuflu right?

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      By the way, they don’t give you the directions to self isolate anymore after a test. That was so 2020. For real. Now it’s stay home if you’ve got symptoms. Probably trying to encourage testing because povvos weren’t getting it done as they didn’t want to starve for 2-3 days.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      My test came in Im Positive,…that is to say it was Positively negative.
      Got the test result text just as I was arriving to my first job at 10 am.
      Ive since heard on the telly I am able to work immediately after a test if I have no symptoms or close contacts.
      Ill probably get done once a week now.

      Might even get me one of them anal swabs Harry keeps going on about.
      🤞
      https://youtu.be/6gJdf7LyGpg

  3. Do politicians, economists and planners adequately understand the technology enabled and covid accelerated changes underway ? …

    China’s Export Growth Unexpectedly Accelerates in June … Bloomberg

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-13/china-s-exports-climb-almost-20-in-june-in-yuan-terms

    China’s export growth unexpectedly picked up in June, shrugging off the impact of port disruptions in southern China and helping to underpin the economy amid signs the recovery is starting to slow.

    Export growth accelerated to 32.2% in dollar terms in June from a year earlier, the customs administration said Tuesday, overturning economists expectations of a slowdown to 23%. Imports climbed 36.7%, also beating the median forecast of 29.5%. That left a trade surplus of $51.5 billion for the month, the highest since January.

    Global appetite for Chinese goods including medical goods and work-from-home equipment has helped spur exports this year and the data showed a broad-based expansion, with stronger shipments of goods such as cell phones, refined oil products and shoes. The surge in trade last month came despite a resurgence in coronavirus cases in southern China that had caused delays in shipments at some major ports for much of June. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Goldman Says Pandemic Is Shaping a More Productive U.S. Economy

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-13/goldman-says-pandemic-is-shaping-a-more-productive-u-s-economy

    The Covid-19 pandemic is fueling a productivity boost for the U.S. economy by speeding up workplace digitization, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    Since the crisis began, annualized growth in output per hour has risen 3.1%, compared with 1.4% in the previous business cycle, Goldman economists wrote in a note. “Stronger productivity growth has been one of the silver linings of the pandemic,” they said.

    Those gains are most visible in sectors that can take advantage of virtual meetings, and where in-person expenses such as travel and entertainment have scope to decline. The gains are being led by sectors including information technology, professional services and wholesale trade, while online shopping has lifted productivity in the retail sector. … read more via hyperlink above …

    Working from home a trend here to stay, some predict as productivity increases … Katie Bradford … TVNZ

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/working-home-trend-here-stay-some-predict-productivity-increases

    • Hill Billy 55

      With our stronger for longer economy its not too hard to expect that a similar productivity story is playing out here, though it may not hit the headlines as it wouldn’t gel with the more migrants are good storyline the MSM are on about.

    • If people can suddenly do more in less time then employers only need them for 3-4 days per week. Why pay them for 5?

  4. reusachtigeMEMBER

    We gotta give it to Gladys, she’s done an ace job getting the China virus numbers down today!

  5. ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

    I tried to book in a Pfizer jab this afternoon and got told by 2 clinics/medical centres that they are only booking in their regular patients.
    So i tries the big Homebush web site.
    No bookings available but I was put on an SMS list that will contact me when new supplies become available.
    Being on this list, the text told me, does not guarantee a booking. It only means Ill receive a text telling me when product has arrived and then Ill have to compete to book a shot on a first in first serve basis.
    I’ve spent over an hour stuffing around on the phone and computer trying to organise one shot.
    Waste of Bloody time

    • I assume that you are not far away from Homebush. I think if you turn up late the day without a booking they can generally squeeze you in because of the no shows over the course of the day.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        After all of the above the wife booked me in at her family’s GP clinic in Seven Hills in mid August,…over 4 bloody weeks away!
        But Im hoping to get the Homebush one first.
        Its only a 5 or 6 mins drive over the river so on a slow day I might give that a try.
        Ill make sure me phone is charged up so waiting around isn’t too intolerable.

        My mate Ritchie was booked in for an evening shot and was stuck hanging around in the cold for over 2 and a half hours and reckons he got sick from that.

        • Arthur Schopenhauer

          If it’s any consolation, I’m 10 minutes walk from a very large tertiary hospital. It was impossible to make a booking via their vaccine website as it kept crashing. It wasn’t possible to book by phone or at the front desk.
          Ended up making a booking via the Vic Gov call Centre after waiting 86 minutes on the phone, for 3 weeks later.
          Of course the GP has no available doses.

          The St Vincent’s Exhibition Building Vax Centre was very well run and efficient. Kudos to St Vinnies.

          On a positive note, it was AZ and I lived! 😀

        • Mining BoganMEMBER

          I rolled up to the Heidelberg Repat with no notice. In and out with a chub-a-chub in an hour or so.

          AZ. Didn’t die. Dirty that I could’ve had the Pfizer a week later though. Now got to wait until September.

    • We do need one. We haven’t had one in several years now and look at the sh1t we are in.

  6. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Just watching QLD premier use the latest in vogue
    political phrase …” I reject the premise of your question “
    …so I’m not going to answer it

    Waiting for a journalist to say “ well , I reject your rejection of the premise of my question ( which I am asking on behalf of the people you were elected to represent )…….so fcuking answer it “

    • Nah, I actually like it. It’s a nicer way of saying “I think your question is bullsh!t, so get fxcked”. To be fair, the whole “gotcha” line of questioning is partly what led our politicians and political media to the current dire state. If you’re a reporter and want facts, why ask a politician?

    • Really? Pathetic AP. I haven’t heard it but regardless, toughen up, rebut with substance.

  7. migtronixMEMBER

    Stoopid ass mother slapping
    On yeah look latest heartache
    I fvck you up with rhymes
    Galour, nothing verboten
    Straight hitting yo cerebellum!

    Not you Stewie, [email protected]!st motherfvcker