Immigration moves back into positive

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Overseas Arrivals and Departures data for May 2021, which confirmed that net migration into Australia has moved back into positive.

There were a net 3,480 permanent & long-term arrivals in May, which followed April’s 270 net arrivals:

Net long-term arrivals

Net long-term arrivals turn positive.

Nevertheless, there have been 19,810 net permanent & long-term departures since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020, representing the first time that net arrivals have been negative since the series commenced in 1976:

Net permanent & long-term arrivals

Still negative in annual terms.

The monthly net permanent & long-term arrivals data is strongly correlated with the official net overseas migration (NOM) data published later by the ABS, which is only current to December 2020. The next chart plots these two series together, which suggests annual NOM will soon bottom-out:

Australian Net Immigration

NOM about to bottom out.

The federal budget projected negative NOM of -96,600 in 2020-21 and -77,400 in 2021-22:

Budget NOM projections

The federal budget projected negative NOM in 2020-21 and 2021-22.

These projections look overly pessimistic based on this data.

Unconventional Economist
Latest posts by Unconventional Economist (see all)

Comments are hidden for Membership Subscribers only.