More grist for the growth scare mill from a new Goldman note:
11 point Checklist – Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day. “Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.
1. Weak Seasonals – Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year. August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.
